texas going dem and California going red

[JoshPA]

When will we see texas going dem and California going red?

[AGA]

Not for a long time. Texas could vote Democratic in the future, but California is definitely not voting Republican while Texas votes Democratic.

[Frodo]

California Republicans burned their bridges to Latinos so completely during the 1990s, that I don't see them coming back as a competitive force anytime soon.  I expect to see Texas going Democratic much sooner than California going Republican, if that ever happens.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

California Republicans burned their bridges to Latinos so completely during the 1990s, that I don't see them coming back as a competitive force anytime soon.  I expect to see Texas going Democratic much sooner than California going Republican, if that ever happens.

-When has the GOP won Latinos on a nationwide level, ever? Again, the real problem in California was the same as in New Jersey, same as in Illinois, same as in Vermont: low marriage rate.

[Mr. Smith]

Texas could happen in even 2024 (2020 if Trump is Carter and the Democrats find a Reagan, and everything else plays out similarly) at this rate.

As for CA going Atlas Blue,...Alabama returning would be more likely.

[Virginiá]

Texas could go Democratic sometime in the 2020s (probably mid-late), but California? I mean never say never in politics, but it's going to take generations to undo the kind of entrenched support Democrats have built in that state. Observe this image I posted in another thread some time ago:




Compared to Texas, where Democrats are a rising political force:




Californians aren't just moderately Democratic. GenX/Millennials in that state are Democratic at levels nearing the Republican-leanings of Southern whites. Boomers are pretty Democratic themselves and the 65+ crowd only recently flipped (and bigly at that).

I don't know when it'll flip, but with that kind of support and knowing the trends of CA/minorities,  it'll take literal generations at least, absent some new great depression with a Democratic Hoover.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Texas could go Democratic sometime in the 2020s (probably mid-late), but California? I mean never say never in politics, but it's going to take generations to undo the kind of entrenched support Democrats have built in that state. Observe this image I posted in another thread some time ago:




Compared to Texas, where Democrats are a rising political force:




Californians aren't just moderately Democratic. GenX/Millennials in that state are Democratic at levels nearing the Republican-leanings of Southern whites. Boomers are pretty Democratic themselves and the 65+ crowd only recently flipped (and bigly at that).

I don't know when it'll flip, but with that kind of support and knowing the trends of CA/minorities,  it'll take literal generations at least, absent some new great depression with a Democratic Hoover.

Yeah. The danger for Republicans not only lies in how utterly f*ed they are in the national popular vote in the future (it's hard to have a mandate if you don't have people on your side), but the fact that they could find themselves in a natural House minority by virtue of being all-but locked out of the California congressional delegation (aside from the northern WWC districts) and also losing heavy ground in Texas as it becomes blue with time. That alone would account for about a third or more of a House majority: 50 seats in California (the 46 HRC districts + eventually Calvert's, Hunter's, Nunes', and dare I say McCarthy's?, all based on long-term trends) + another 20-25+ in Texas, depending on who draws the maps.

-Trends are one thing. Swings are quite another.

[Virginiá]

I'm surprised by the lack of a major age gap in California. Pretty much all age groups are solidly Democratic.

The 65+ age group actually voted 52-48 Romney, and in 2008 it went even bigger for Obama than it did Clinton (62-38 O). The GOP's influence among that generation of CA voters doesn't appear to be very strong, and I imagine for at least the next decade it could remain sort of swingy, depending on how Trump's presidency works out.

[BillyW]

Texas is not going to the Dems for a good long while. The Dems seem to have a perpetual wet dream about this but it's just not in the cards for the foreseeable future. There are many reasons for this and it might eventually turn to the Dems if given a few decades but not soon.

An interesting thing is the immigration no one talks about. People are moving to Texas in droves from other states including California for jobs, lower taxes, etc. they tend to vote conservative. It's almost like Calif is exporting their Republicans to Texas.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

If California secessionists gain too much influence in the state Democratic Party, then it could be more competitive.

[impactreps]

California is not going Republican soon enough for my sake.

[GoTfan]

Not for a while, I'd say. Though I can see Texas going Democrat sooner than California goes for the Republicans.

[Virginiá]

What I don't understand is why Republicans have so many members of Congress out of California?  I haven't actually looked closely but when you look at the map generally, Hillary won pretty much everywhere.  That delegation should be 90% Dem.  This seems like one of the main reasons Dems don't have the house.  Republicans probably have a higher percentage of seats in some swing states than Dems do in F'ing California.

Presidential trends sometimes take a while to trickle downballot, especially when you have incumbents hanging around that can hold their own. For instance, Valadao has won by landslide margins over the past 3 elections despite almost every other Democrat (Gov, Senate, Pres) winning his district - often by comfortable or double digit margins. It's interesting because his district is absurdly Hispanic (70%+), and CA Hispanics are quite Democratic. I'd love to see exit polls for some of these districts.

It's also worth noting that some of these seats only seemed to truly come around for Democrats during the Obama years, which as we all know has been a curse on downballot Democrats. It's likely that us holding the White House with an incumbent often somewhat unpopular has inhibited our ability to move on some of these areas. I suspect things will change a good bit now that there is an incumbent GOP president in office that is absolutely hated by California.

So, in my opinion, a number of these seats will go to a Democrat either when a strong enough wave hits (CA may be ripe in 2018, national wave or not), or whenever these incumbents retire.

[Virginiá]

Lets assume a semi-moderate wave hits in 2018 (which I think is more likely than not)... how many California districts do you think will swing to democrats?  Given Republican gerrymandering across the country, it is absolutely crucial that Democrats make gains in California. 

In a moderate wave, CA-10, CA-25, and CA-49 seem like the most likely to fall, assuming decent recruits. CA-21 would be up there too if Dems got Rudy Salas to run (he even won Kings County this year in his AD race, which Hillary couldn't even pull off). CA-39, CA-45, and CA-48 would all probably require retirements or a 2010-style wave, and their chances of falling I'd say are roughly in that order. D's have a strong bench in CA-39 (Newman and Quirk-Silva), but not really many people of stature in the other two OC districts. Just a few city councilmembers.

PNM got to this first literally while I was writing my post. His is much more detailed, but I largely agree at least with the first 4 seats he mentioned and I don't know enough about the rest. For 10, 25 and 49, I'd honestly be surprised if they didn't flip, given the ways things are going so far. My reasoning:

If Trump/Republicans continue on this current path/agenda, I personally believe brand damage is inevitable. Incumbent WH parties generally do poorly in midterms even when the incumbent president isn't that unliked, so imagine 2 more years of this behavior/policies from Trump? It might not be negative everywhere, but it's toxic in California.

Part of me believes that Hillary's unpopularity, Trump's absurdity during the campaign and Hillary's efforts to separate him from Republicans helped the GOP brand remain viable for downballot candidates last year, but after 2 years people will almost surely fully associate Trump with the Republican Party, as he is their leader now, regardless of his behavior. Their party now has to take responsibility for his actions and the agenda they are pushing. It's going to alienate people. Even without Trump's incompetent and awful shenanigans, many parts of the GOP agenda were already unpopular with voters.

The reason I pointed that^ out was that additional brand damage will hurt those CA Republicans and help Democrats make up for the turnout drop among minorities/young people.

[ElectionsGuy]

I would be lucky to see it in my lifetime, especially California voting Republican.

[JoshPA]

Texas could happen in even 2024 (2020 if Trump is Carter and the Democrats find a Reagan, and everything else plays out similarly) at this rate.

As for CA going Atlas Blue,...Alabama returning would be more likely.

unless that reagan is john bell edwards or jim webb not happening.

[blacknwhiterose]

An interesting thing is the immigration no one talks about. People are moving to Texas in droves from other states including California for jobs, lower taxes, etc. they tend to vote conservative. It's almost like Calif is exporting their Republicans to Texas.

When I lived in California, I noticed that, amongst the people expatriating:

Conservative-leaning Californians like to move to Texas, Arizona, and very rural regions of the Mountain West.  Like you said, they move for cheaper COL, job/business opportunities, conservative politics, and to just get away from the CA congestion.

Liberal-leaning Californians move to the Pac NW or Colorado.  They like the beautiful scenery, amenities, and progressive politics in a slightly more relaxed, less congested environment.

[Kingpoleon]

This would probably involve California basically turning into Non-White Hispanics v. Whites + Asians. Janet Nguyen v. Eric Garcetti, in other words.