texas going dem and California going red

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

California Republicans burned their bridges to Latinos so completely during the 1990s, that I don't see them coming back as a competitive force anytime soon.  I expect to see Texas going Democratic much sooner than California going Republican, if that ever happens.

-When has the GOP won Latinos on a nationwide level, ever? Again, the real problem in California was the same as in New Jersey, same as in Illinois, same as in Vermont: low marriage rate.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Texas could go Democratic sometime in the 2020s (probably mid-late), but California? I mean never say never in politics, but it's going to take generations to undo the kind of entrenched support Democrats have built in that state. Observe this image I posted in another thread some time ago:




Compared to Texas, where Democrats are a rising political force:




Californians aren't just moderately Democratic. GenX/Millennials in that state are Democratic at levels nearing the Republican-leanings of Southern whites. Boomers are pretty Democratic themselves and the 65+ crowd only recently flipped (and bigly at that).

I don't know when it'll flip, but with that kind of support and knowing the trends of CA/minorities,  it'll take literal generations at least, absent some new great depression with a Democratic Hoover.

Yeah. The danger for Republicans not only lies in how utterly f*ed they are in the national popular vote in the future (it's hard to have a mandate if you don't have people on your side), but the fact that they could find themselves in a natural House minority by virtue of being all-but locked out of the California congressional delegation (aside from the northern WWC districts) and also losing heavy ground in Texas as it becomes blue with time. That alone would account for about a third or more of a House majority: 50 seats in California (the 46 HRC districts + eventually Calvert's, Hunter's, Nunes', and dare I say McCarthy's?, all based on long-term trends) + another 20-25+ in Texas, depending on who draws the maps.

-Trends are one thing. Swings are quite another.