If Trump is re-elected, is it by a wider or narrower (EV) margin?

[DPKdebator]

If Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020, will it be a wider or narrower (in terms of EV) margin?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wider, if its closer then this year he will lose

[The_Doctor]

Has to be wider than 2016. He can't lose the popular vote again. If he does, he's boned.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Wider, if its closer then this year he will lose

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Has to be wider than 2016. He can't lose the popular vote again. If he does, he's boned.

-He can lose the popular vote, but not by more than 2.1 points.

[Kleine Scheiße]

My personal feeling is that he will either do very well and far exceed the 2016 EV count, or will be an utter disaster and will come nowhere near 200. A muddled in-between is hard to believe.

[Mr. Smith]

Narrower, probably 2004 numbers. Probably loses Arizona and NC (or Georgia) but gains New Hampshire and Maine, possibly Minnesota too.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Narrower, probably 2004 numbers. Probably loses Arizona and NC (or Georgia) but gains New Hampshire and Maine, possibly Minnesota too.

-The opposite is more likely to happen: more votes in the South, less in the North.

[Person Man]

Narrower, probably 2004 numbers. Probably loses Arizona and NC (or Georgia) but gains New Hampshire and Maine, possibly Minnesota too.

-The opposite is more likely to happen: more votes in the South, less in the North.

Could it be narrower EV, actually win PV?

Could be that the Democrat is on the defensive and wins back Michigan and Pennsylvania by 2 but loses Georgia by 6, Arizona by 5, Florida by 3, Wisconsin by 3, and Texas by 15....and still manages Colorado by 3 and New Hamphire by 1. It will be in question for a while whether Trump wins the PV or a majority of the votes.
Basically, there is a backlash in the rust belt, and a trending in the sunbelt, but Trump hangs on, and does better in non-competitive states.

TP 49.9%
The Other Guys 48.5%
Third Party Voting at 2012 levels

[Figueira]

Has to be wider than 2016. He can't lose the popular vote again. If he does, he's boned.

-He can lose the popular vote, but not by more than 2.1 points.

If Harris is the nominee I can see him losing the PV by a bigger margin than that and still win (not that I think Harris is a bad candidate, but she is from California so she will probably get a bunch of useless votes regardless of how well she does in swing states).

Anyway, I'd say that out of the scenarios where he wins, the "average" would involve him gaining EVs, with NH, ME-AL, MN, NV, and possibly VA as the most likely pickups.

[Person Man]

Has to be wider than 2016. He can't lose the popular vote again. If he does, he's boned.

-He can lose the popular vote, but not by more than 2.1 points.

If Harris is the nominee I can see him losing the PV by a bigger margin than that and still win (not that I think Harris is a bad candidate, but she is from California so she will probably get a bunch of useless votes regardless of how well she does in swing states).

Anyway, I'd say that out of the scenarios where he wins, the "average" would involve him gaining EVs, with NH, ME-AL, MN, NV, and possibly VA as the most likely pickups.

Probably not Virginia. I think Colorado, Virginia, New Hamphire, and maybe Nevada take the place of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota as states that Republicans really need to seal the deal, still not win, but will probably need win anyway.

[PMHub]

It's worth noting that the only Presidents to win re-election with a smaller EV share than what they got 4 years prior are Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama. So Trump will probably either lose or get more than the 304 EVs he got last year

[Mr. Smith]

It's worth noting that the only Presidents to win re-election with a smaller EV share than what they got 4 years prior are Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama. So Trump will probably either lose or get more than the 304 EVs he got last year

FDR's other terms also.

[mgop]

wider. he can flip at least 6 more states.

[Ljube]

Far wider.