Has to be wider than 2016. He can't lose the popular vote again. If he does, he's boned.
-He can lose the popular vote, but not by more than 2.1 points.
If Harris is the nominee I can see him losing the PV by a bigger margin than that and still win (not that I think Harris is a bad candidate, but she is from California so she will probably get a bunch of useless votes regardless of how well she does in swing states).
Anyway, I'd say that out of the scenarios where he wins, the "average" would involve him gaining EVs, with NH, ME-AL, MN, NV, and possibly VA as the most likely pickups.
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