If Trump is re-elected, is it by a wider or narrower (EV) margin?

[Person Man]

Narrower, probably 2004 numbers. Probably loses Arizona and NC (or Georgia) but gains New Hampshire and Maine, possibly Minnesota too.

-The opposite is more likely to happen: more votes in the South, less in the North.

Could it be narrower EV, actually win PV?

Could be that the Democrat is on the defensive and wins back Michigan and Pennsylvania by 2 but loses Georgia by 6, Arizona by 5, Florida by 3, Wisconsin by 3, and Texas by 15....and still manages Colorado by 3 and New Hamphire by 1. It will be in question for a while whether Trump wins the PV or a majority of the votes.
Basically, there is a backlash in the rust belt, and a trending in the sunbelt, but Trump hangs on, and does better in non-competitive states.

TP 49.9%
The Other Guys 48.5%
Third Party Voting at 2012 levels

[Person Man]

Has to be wider than 2016. He can't lose the popular vote again. If he does, he's boned.

-He can lose the popular vote, but not by more than 2.1 points.

If Harris is the nominee I can see him losing the PV by a bigger margin than that and still win (not that I think Harris is a bad candidate, but she is from California so she will probably get a bunch of useless votes regardless of how well she does in swing states).

Anyway, I'd say that out of the scenarios where he wins, the "average" would involve him gaining EVs, with NH, ME-AL, MN, NV, and possibly VA as the most likely pickups.

Probably not Virginia. I think Colorado, Virginia, New Hamphire, and maybe Nevada take the place of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota as states that Republicans really need to seal the deal, still not win, but will probably need win anyway.