What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Suburbia]

Gov. Hogan will win reelection by 5-10 points. The Maryland Democratic Party bench is strong, but not enough to beat him. Doug Gansler will run and will lose as some African-Americans will vote for Hogan a la Christie in 2013 in NJ.

[JerryArkansas]

With him seeming to embrace Trump, pretty sh**t.

[Xing]

I'd say the race is Tilt R right now.

[The_Doctor]

Hogan needs to keep Montgomery, PG, and Baltimore from turning out for the Democratic nominee. Without Trump I would've forecasted the race being more Maryland centric but anger from these three areas can more than offset Republican leaning areas in the state.

In other words Hogan is potentially among the first victims of Trump's takeover of the party. That is to say blue state Republicans who are forced to pick between the president and his base and the state's extremely blue lean.

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

I'm not sure what your point is, the vast majority of the population lives in those two areas + baltimore's broader county (where GOP is toxic as well).

For Republicans to win statewide they need to cut DEEP into democratic support in those counties, particularly Montgomery... good luck with that.

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

Ummm...Clinton won Baltimore County (aka, the suburbs) by 18 points. Hogan needs to replicate his 2014 twenty-point win there to even have a chance statewide. I don't doubt that Hogan will probably win Baltimore County, but I'm skeptical of him pulling off numbers of that magnitude again in a year where Democratic turnout will be through the roof.

Baltimore county is only PART of suburbs. How about Carroll or Harford?

[smoltchanov]

^ That's why i don't consider Hogan's reelection as "done deal". But before Trump's order and his reaction i considered his chances (taking into consideration his likely big margin on Eastern Shore and some - in Ann Arundel and Western Maryland (as small as it is)) as something between "lean" and "likely". Now - between "tilt" and "lean". Surely, he damaged himself with most of well-educated moderate voters (reaction of Baker in Massachusetts and Scott in Vermovt was much more reasonable), but - still... And absence of serious Democratic candidate will improve his chances as time passes.voters

P.S. I usually consider exurbs as "outer suburbs" in order not to add another layer of data into consideration

[Jeppe]

I think one factor that may lead to Hogan's downfall is that he'll be on the same ballot as Ben Cardin (or his replacement). Speaking of which, I could Donna Edwards running for either Governor or for Cardin's seat if he retires.

[smoltchanov]

I think one factor that may lead to Hogan's downfall is that he'll be on the same ballot as Ben Cardin (or his replacement). Speaking of which, I could Donna Edwards running for either Governor or for Cardin's seat if he retires.

Please, tell me, what's so good with Donna Edwards (besides her being a "bold progressive", which is NOT a plus for me, but rather a minus (even in so blue state))?

[Jeppe]

I never said she was an amazing candidate. Edwards is a somewhat prominent Democrat in Maryland who's young and ambitious, and has a unique background for a politician (struggling single mother).

A lot of Democrats are anxious about voting for a Republican with them currently being so prominent throughout every branch of government, and that may also factor into this race, and other races around the country like Baker's.

[Maxwell]

I don't get why Republicans are so confident here - Scott Brown lost with a 70% approval rating. Hogan's numbers are not going to stay up when the campaign comes around.

[Nyvin]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

Hillary won Baltimore County 56%-38%

Baltimore county is only PART of suburbs. How about Carroll or Harford?

You might be able to consider parts of Harford as in the Balitmore Metro, but not Carroll,  it's too remote and far away.

[Gass3268]

We're also forgetting Howard County

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

Hillary won Baltimore County 56%-38%

Baltimore county is only PART of suburbs. How about Carroll or Harford?

You might be able to consider parts of Harford as in the Balitmore Metro, but not Carroll,  it's too remote and far away.

Carroll and Harford almost neutralized Baltimore county even in 2016 with Trump being far less popular in Maryland then Hogan. Trump won these counties together by about 62 thousands of votes, losing Baltimore county by 69 thousands. Hogan, naturally, will do much better. And Trump won eastern shore by about 46 thousands. What will be Hogan's margin there? Western Maryland (from Garrett to Frederick) gave Trump about 44.000 margin, and will give Hogan more. Calvert, St. Mary, may be even Ann Arundel? (yeah, i know that Clinton narrowly won the last, but Hogan is no Trump)

[heatcharger]

@smoltchanov, you are highly overestimating the influence the Baltimore exurbs + rural Western MD + Eastern Shore has on state politics. Also, the Baltimore suburbs are not 'extremely conservative' lol, Hogan just ran far, far ahead of the typical Republican there as well as in the Beltway area, which is why he won in 2014. And just because Harford and Carroll come close to neutralizing Baltimore Co., usually there is nowhere near enough Republican vote to overcome the huge margins Democrats get in MoCo, PG, and Baltimore City.

I'm not saying Hogan won't defy normal conventions in 2018 -- he will. However you also have to remember turnout was really bad in 2014, but with a Trump presidency, it will certainly be up next year, and that's not a dynamic that works in Hogan's favor.

[smoltchanov]

@smoltchanov, you are highly overestimating the influence the Baltimore exurbs + rural Western MD + Eastern Shore has on state politics. Also, the Baltimore suburbs are not 'extremely conservative' lol, Hogan just ran far, far ahead of the typical Republican there as well as in the Beltway area, which is why he won in 2014. And just because Harford and Carroll come close to neutralizing Baltimore Co., usually there is nowhere near enough Republican vote to overcome the huge margins Democrats get in MoCo, PG, and Baltimore City.

I'm not saying Hogan won't defy normal conventions in 2018 -- he will. However you also have to remember turnout was really bad in 2014, but with a Trump presidency, it will certainly be up next year, and that's not a dynamic that works in Hogan's favor.

I will not go in this dispute further. Time will tell. Just as easily i could say that you overestimate "an abyss" where Trump can fall. IMHO - he will be unpopular, but not THAT unpopular. But i understand that Democrats lost so many races of late that they tend to grasp at any potentially winnable races and declare them "a big Democratic hope". From Maryland and Massachusetts to Arizona and Texas.

[Cynthia]

Google Consumer Survey: Hogan +17 against Edwards 253RV (Hogan 54, Edwards 37)

[smoltchanov]

Google Consumer Survey: Hogan +17 against Edwards 253RV (Hogan 54, Edwards 37)

Edwards (by style at least) is one of the worst candidates i know. Hope Maryland Democrats will find someone much better. And i don't see a big problem even if he/she will be white..

[History505]

Google Consumer Survey: Hogan +17 against Edwards 253RV (Hogan 54, Edwards 37)

I'm still new to this Google Consumer Survey polls, is there any more match-ups with other potential candidates? Of course none of them mean nothing, but would like to just see more for fun.

[windjammer]

85%

[hcallega]

It depends on a number of factors:

1-Trump's popularity. If he's as unpopular, or worse, in 2018 as he is today than that really hurts Hogan. Progressives will turnout in large numbers to vote against GOP candidates, and swing-voters will swing left.
2-The Democratic candidate: Right now there are three candidates who have effectively began their campaigns: Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker, and Congressman John Delaney. If Tom Perez loses the race for DNC Chair than I can see him also jumping into the race. Delaney is a very strong candidate IMO as he's been vocally anti-Hogan while still retaining enough of an independent record on economic issues to carry the suburban voters in Howard and Baltimore County, while fairing better in Western MD (which he represents) than any other nominee. I think Kamenetz is the weakest of the three for a number of reasons I won't go into here, but he's not especially popular even among Baltimore County Democrats (all three of his likely successors have been critical of him) and that alone is concerning. Baker seems promising, but I don't know enough about him.
3-The Democratic Party: This is a sequel to the previous point. The state party has spent the last two years rebuilding since the embarrassing loss in 2014. There's still a lot of work to be done, particularly in the swing-burbs (BalCo, HoCo, AAC, Frederick, etc.). Kathleen Matthews is running for State Chair and looks like the front-runner. How she helps shape the party (i.e. whether they focus on winning over swing voters or double-down on the O'Malley-Brown strategy) will have a big impact on how the eventual nominee in 2018 is seen.
4-Hogan's Strategy Over The Next Two Years: Larry Hogan effectively paved a moderate course through 2015 and 2016. He contrasted nicely with the national GOP, signing into law a reproductive justice law and staying quiet on guns and crime, while still taking the fiscally conservative, pro-business, line that got him elected in the first place. However, Trump presents a yuge problem. First, Hogan said he voted for his dad (a former GOP Congressman) instead of Trump. That didn't do him any favors with the Trumpites. Then he supported the EO, which alienated a lot of socially liberal, fiscally conservative moderates who voted for him.  Basically he's stuck between a rock and a hard place, and the General Assembly Dems have struck a fairly mainstream (if confrontational) tone against him. How Hogan responds over the next year and a half will play a big part in whether or not he's re-elected.

On the whole, I'd say the race leans Dem if they nominate a strong candidate and Trump remains unpopular with Marylanders.

[hcallega]

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

Baltimore County is pretty much the bell-weather for the state. When it goes for the Dems (or splits evenly), the Dems win the state. Hogan got just about 60% of the vote there and he won there. It's also a bit of a microcosm for the state and country more broadly.



The Southeastern chunk of the County used to be reliably Democratic, albeit always pretty conservative. Prior to 2014, they had a Democratic State Senator, three Democratic State Reps, and a Democratic County Councilman. Now all those seats are held by Republicans and they gave over 60% of the vote to Trump. It's an area that used to be heavily industrial, with the world's biggest steel plant. Now that's closed and there aren't enough good paying jobs to go around. There's a lot of new investment, but it has yet to materialize yet.

Northeast and North: Reliably Republican, wealthy exurbs, and rural areas. This is your quintessential conservative base. Trump's strongest region, home of the GOP Senate nominee and the leadership in both the State House and Senate. Cruz did well here in the primaries.

Central: These are the towns of Towson, Parkville, and Pikesville. Towson and Pikesville are both generally Democratic regions, electing all Democrats to the General Assembly, but went for Hogan (narrowly) in 2014 due primarily to economic issues. These are generally well-educated, affluent voters who tend to elect representatives focused on social, environmental, and educational causes (For instance, the Senator from the Pikesville [center-northwest] area is chairman of the Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee.) Parkville is a bit more conservative and a bit less wealthy, but also has a large African-American population. Overall, the central, "inside-the-highway" area is the key area for any statewide Dem to win. Hillary and Van Hollen did easily, while Brown lost it and O'Malley ran even against Ehrlich both in 2006 and 2010.

Northwest: The Democratic base. Northwest Baltimore County, stretching from the City out to Carroll County, is predominately African-American, with a sizable Jewish population as well. The Republican Party doesn't contest this area at all, and the County Councilman here was a Bernie Sanders delegate at the DNC. This area is still predominately middle-class, but voted for Brown over Hogan by a wide margin. Turnout is the key here for the Dems.

Southwest: A hybrid of the central and Southeastern parts of the county in many ways. The far Southeast corner is Arbutus, home of former Governor Bob Ehrlich. It's more working class and comparable to Dundalk across the harbor. Conservative and Trump country. North of that that is Catonsville, a wealthier suburb that is much more liberal and diverse. This area is represented by Democrats at every level of government, but is basically a 55-45 split in terms of who voters support.

On the whole, Baltimore County is a generally left-of-center county but will swing right when the focus is on tax-and-spending issues. The white working class communities of the Southeast and Southwest went from reliably Democratic to reliably Republican, while the wealthier suburbs went from lean GOP to lean Dem over the last 20 years. There's a hotly contested County Executive race and some very close legislative races. 2018 will be a very exciting year in a county that has a lot in common with the country at-large.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[Cynthia]

Google Consumer Survey: Hogan +17 against Edwards 253RV (Hogan 54, Edwards 37)

I'm still new to this Google Consumer Survey polls, is there any more match-ups with other potential candidates? Of course none of them mean nothing, but would like to just see more for fun.

I only tested Edwards for now. You can do it yourself, first 333 samples are free.