What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Lothal1]

Hogan vs Brown 2014. Look at the margins in Rural MD.

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

I'm not sure what your point is, the vast majority of the population lives in those two areas + baltimore's broader county (where GOP is toxic as well).

For Republicans to win statewide they need to cut DEEP into democratic support in those counties, particularly Montgomery... good luck with that.

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

This isn't even close to being true.  Baltimore suburbs aren't even conservative much less "extremely conservative."  Maybe parts of Anne Arundel are somewhat white working class, but they're offset by a large black population.  Not to mention, I believe that county even voted in favor of gay marriage several years ago, as well as most of the close in Baltimore suburbs.  I do not consider counties that voted for gay marriage to be "extremely conservative" - where are you getting this nonsense from?  

Nonsense? Ann Arundel frequently voted (and votes) for conservative Republicans in legislature (including some much more conservative then Hogan)  and in not so distant past - for relatively conservative Democrats too. And for Hogan, of course, by big margin (66% in 2014). And in "suburbs" i include not only close suburbs of Baltimore county itself (well, let's say i slightly exaggerated their conservatism, but not by too much), which voting behavoir is described above in details,  but exurbs of Carroll and Harford counries too. You will say they are not extremely conservative too (63 and 58% even for Trump, and astronomical 82 and 76 - for Hogan)? Are you not too naughty, BTW?? And who gave you the right to speak to me in such patronizing tone, especially when you make more factual errors then even i (from abroad and purely Internet-based at present)?

P.S. General conclusion: a partisan hacks are not worthy to be source of impartial analysis and detailed voter behavoir. They are too blindsided for that. And present a picture, which they would like to be a reality, but which has nothing in common with reality itself.

[smoltchanov]

Republicans have won 1 term governorships in Maryland in the past, they've won Senate seats in Massachusetts, but they are always the underdog.  

With such "uncompromising approach" you risk to be underdog everywhere outside some ultraliberal bubbles very soon. And you will absolutely deserve it. It's people like you ("wild-eyed activists with foam at the lips") who lead millions away from Democratic party (which becomes more and more simuilar to British Labor party under Corbin leadership) and to Trump (like my cousin, who was proud Obama voter in 2008 and 2012, and no less proud Trump voter last year). Blame themselves for your laughable results. Even in Trump's midterm in 2018 you may be able to snatch defeat out of jaws of victory. Simply because too many people hate you. More then they hate Trump.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

I'm not sure what your point is, the vast majority of the population lives in those two areas + baltimore's broader county (where GOP is toxic as well).

For Republicans to win statewide they need to cut DEEP into democratic support in those counties, particularly Montgomery... good luck with that.

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

This isn't even close to being true.  Baltimore suburbs aren't even conservative much less "extremely conservative."  Maybe parts of Anne Arundel are somewhat white working class, but they're offset by a large black population.  Not to mention, I believe that county even voted in favor of gay marriage several years ago, as well as most of the close in Baltimore suburbs.  I do not consider counties that voted for gay marriage to be "extremely conservative" - where are you getting this nonsense from?  

Nonsense? Ann Arundel frequently voted (and votes) for conservative Republicans in legislature (including some much more conservative then Hogan)  and in not so distant past - for relatively conservative Democrats too. And for Hogan, of course, by big margin (66% in 2014). And in "suburbs" i include not only close suburbs of Baltimore county itself (well, let's say i slightly exaggerated their conservatism, but not by too much), which voting behavoir is described above in details,  but exurbs of Carroll and Harford counries too. You will say they are not extremely conservative too (63 and 58% even for Trump, and astronomical 82 and 76 - for Hogan)? Are you not too naughty, BTW?? And who gave you the right to speak to me in such patronizing tone, especially when you make more factual errors then even i (from abroad and purely Internet-based at present)?

P.S. General conclusion: a partisan hacks are not worthy to be source of impartial analysis and detailed voter behavoir. They are too blindsided for that. And present a picture, which they would like to be a reality, but which has nothing in common with reality itself.

K

[RRusso1982]

He could end up like Lincoln Chafee in 2006 -- popular, but not enough to overcome the mood of the country and his state's heavily-Democratic lean.

Or a better analogy-Bob Ehrlich in 2006.  Although Ehrlich was never as popular as Hogan is.  I think Ehrlich's highest approval rating ever was 63% and he was in the mid to high 50's on Election Day 2006.

[Maxwell]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

[smoltchanov]

Oh ok, sorry - didn't realize you were trolling.  Carry on.

A troll accusing others to be a troll... Funny.

[smoltchanov]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

[smoltchanov]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

Greetings to FAKE communist and a REAL troll))))))

[smoltchanov]

Oh ok, sorry - didn't realize you were trolling.  Carry on.

A troll accusing others to be a troll... Funny.

Someone claiming Baltimore County is "extremely conservative" showing his face again in the same thread.  Funny.

I already explained, where words "extremely conservative" must be applied. But you are to dumb to inderstand, probably. Even plain English

[smoltchanov]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

your trolling is just adorable.  Tell us again about your vast knowledge of Baltimore county (where I used to live) and how it's "extremely conservative."  

My brother lived there too for years. And - apology to idiots - even them usually know how to avoid repeating the sapme phrase more again and again. That's not the case here. Sir, you are under-Idiot:))))

P.S. For those who can read and understand - i alreagy explained many times where words "extremely conservative" must be applied. But if a person can't think and understands it in it's own way - it's his fault, not my....

[smoltchanov]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

Greetings to FAKE communist and a REAL troll))))))

Tell us more about how Baltimore County, which gave Hillary Clinton an 18 point margin, which voted in favor of gay marriage, illegal immigrant rights, and legalized gambling, is a bastion of conservatism.  Tell us more about your vast first-hand knowledge of this county.

Well, i have a book from my friend-professor with words "to my Russian friend, who knows American politics better then 99% of Americans". You surely don't belong to 1%, dummy....

[smoltchanov]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

your trolling is just adorable.  Tell us again about your vast knowledge of Baltimore county (where I used to live) and how it's "extremely conservative."  

My brother lived there too for years. And - apology to idiots - even them usually know how to avoid repeating the sapme phrase more again and again. That's not the case here. Sir, you are under-Idiot:))))

P.S. For those who can read and understand - i alreagy explained many times where words "extremely conservative" must be applied. But if a person can't think and understands it in it's own way - it's his fault, not my....

Still peddling your ridiculous argument that Baltimore County is "extremely conservative?"  Cool story bro.

Still continuing your distortions and pretending not to understand? Yeah, idiots sometimes have difficulties of understanding. Continue, please, i seldom have a good laugh like that..

[smoltchanov]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

Greetings to FAKE communist and a REAL troll))))))

Tell us more about how Baltimore County, which gave Hillary Clinton an 18 point margin, which voted in favor of gay marriage, illegal immigrant rights, and legalized gambling, is a bastion of conservatism.  Tell us more about your vast first-hand knowledge of this county.

Well, i have a book from my friend-professor with words "to my Russian friend, who knows American politics better then 99% of Americans". You surely don't belong to 1%, dummy....

Your argument for why Baltimore County is "extremely conservative" is brilliant. 

Visit nearest psychiatrist. He is waiting for you...

[smoltchanov]

^ An idiot is always idiot. You brilliantly proved that. As i already said - your psychiatrist is waiting.

[smoltchanov]

^ An idiot is always idiot. You brilliantly proved that. As i already said - your psychiatrist is waiting.

So, which would you say is a bigger Republican stronghold: San Francisco or Cambridge?   

I knew, that you are an idiot, before, but even i underestimated you:) Continue, please, let me laugh)))))

[smoltchanov]

^ An idiot is always idiot. You brilliantly proved that. As i already said - your psychiatrist is waiting.

So, which would you say is a bigger Republican stronghold: San Francisco or Cambridge?   

I knew, that you are an idiot, before, but even i underestimated you:) Continue, please, let me laugh)))))

Yeah, I thought San Francisco as well.  San Francisco has always been known for its extremely conservative politics. 

Some more, please:)

[Gass3268]

Trump under 30% approval in MD

Hogan is going to have an awful headwind to fight against next year and its not like he won in a landslide in 2014.

[windjammer]

Trump under 30% approval in MD

Hogan is going to have an awful headwind to fight against next year and its not like he won in a landslide in 2014.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of Baker or Hogan goes down. I think it is more likely to happen to Hogan as there are many african americans in MD, and they split ticket much less often.

[smoltchanov]

Trump under 30% approval in MD

Hogan is going to have an awful headwind to fight against next year and its not like he won in a landslide in 2014.

Sure. But that doesn't mean he can't win, isn't it? Democratic nominee may be as bad as in 2014, for example..

[Jeppe]

I think I'm gonna rate this race as lean R until I see polls actually showing a competitive race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

K

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt R, but it's not as if Hogan is able to get much done anyway in such a Democratic state. Republicans should triage him if things aren't looking good and focus on states where Republican governors at least have some power (WI, FL, MI, PA, OH).

[Virginiá]

Tilt R, but it's not as if Hogan is able to get much done anyway in such a Democratic state. Republicans should triage him if things aren't looking good and focus on states where Republican governors at least have some power (WI, FL, MI, PA, OH).

Well it's not a totally useless job, he does do things like appoint judges (with Senate consent of course, so major Democrat influence there), and could veto some bills right now if with a smaller number of Democrats needed to rally against a supermajority.

But you're probably right - if Hogan wins, that is great (for Rs), but there is no good reason to spend money to help him. Not with all the other important races going on. I'd bet the farm that Democrats gain a decent number of seats in the legislature in 2018 after 2 bruising Obama midterms that have depleted their ranks in the State House (MD holds legislative elections in midterms only). Such a change in majorities would make Hogan's rare chances at sustaining vetoes pretty much non-existent.

[The_Doctor]

The formula for Maryland is simple. If the Big Three Counties go heavily Democratic the Dems win. If they go Dem but at a reduced rate and Baltimore County goes Republican the Republican wins. It's as simple as that.

Now, why wouldn't liberals turn out en masse here? There's also a US Senate race ongoing too.