What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Gass3268]

The formula for Maryland is simple. If the Big Three Counties go heavily Democratic the Dems win. If they go Dem but at a reduced rate and Baltimore County goes Republican the Republican wins. It's as simple as that.

Now, why wouldn't liberals turn out en masse here? There's also a US Senate race ongoing too.

Howard County (where the Baltimore and DC suburbs blend together) was essentially the bellwether county in 2014 and Clinton got 63% there. Hogan is going to need win this county in order to win in 2018.

[History505]

Trump under 30% approval in MD

Hogan is going to have an awful headwind to fight against next year and its not like he won in a landslide in 2014.

Sure. But that doesn't mean he can't win, isn't it? Democratic nominee may be as bad as in 2014, for example..

Anthony Brown lost because of taking the race too much for granted, not actually interacting too much with Marylanders, and people wanting a change from 8 years of O'Malley. If he ran the race like he was the underdog, then he could have won. The Democratic Nominee will have to really go out there with the people than IMO Brown did, and express a consise clear message.

[Figueira]

...what did I just walk into?

[smoltchanov]

...what did I just walk into?

Mess. Sorry, i tried as hard, as i could. to prevent it, but i couldn't be absolutely silent....

[Jeppe]

Some Russian guy arguing with various people about Maryland politics.

Honestly, Larry Hogan would probably need Mississippi style racial polarization to pull of a solid victory, and I just don't see that happening with Trump as president. His best scenario is to pull off a slim victory like in 2014.

[smoltchanov]

...what did I just walk into?

A lecture on how Harford+Carroll>PG+MontCo+Baltimore City in raw votes. Oh, and how Baltimore County is fairly conservative.

It's more conservative then Baltimore city, obviously. And Hogan won it with about 59% running as pragmatic moderate conservative. So, even i stressed it too much - it's surely not an ultraliberal county, as Montgomery and PG usually are... That was an initial meaning of my phrase. And by "exrtremely conservative" i meant Carroll and Harford counties, which are always conservative, and at least in some cases (like 2014) - extremely so. It was that simple before someone decided to make a "story" from it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

^ Yours? Much more then that, Mr. Idiot. You brilliantly confirmed everything i thought about people like you before.

Sick burn

[Lothal1]

Some Russian guy arguing with various people about Maryland politics.

Honestly, Larry Hogan would probably need Mississippi style racial polarization to pull of a solid victory, and I just don't see that happening with Trump as president. His best scenario is to pull off a slim victory like in 2014.

If a Black vs white primary happens (2006 Senate) for the Democratic nomination, Larry Hogan 98% will win.

[Brittain33]

Hi all,

I deleted a bunch of posts toward the end of the argument, but am not going to back further to delete more as it looks like it has stopped. Please keep on topic and ping me (report posts) if problems resume. Thanks.

[smoltchanov]

...what did I just walk into?

A lecture on how Harford+Carroll>PG+MontCo+Baltimore City in raw votes. Oh, and how Baltimore County is fairly conservative.

Obviously not. But Harford + Carroll + Baltimore County + Ann Arundel +Eastern Shore + Western Maryland + liitle bit else > PG +MontCo +Baltimore city in raw votes as 2014 has shown. And, until Hogan's statement on Trump EO i saw no reasons for that not to be repeated in 2018. Especially with Delaney saying that he is NOT running, Kamenetz - not too popular, and Mizeur may be too liberal even for Maryland.

Thanks to moderator.

[History505]

Hi all,

I deleted a bunch of posts toward the end of the argument, but am not going to back further to delete more as it looks like it has stopped. Please keep on topic and ping me (report posts) if problems resume. Thanks.
[/quote Thank you for getting that cleared up.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

The Democratic Party needs to win the races it can win.  It can't not spend money on the MD Governor's race just because it's a blue state.  They HAVE to win it to rebuild their bench.

There are two (2) things I do know about Maryland politics.  One is that Anthony Brown ran a terrible campaign and (B) Marylanders were sick of O'Malley.  The task was for Maryland's Democrats to separate themselves from O'Malley while emphasizing the idea that Democrats are more likely to find a Democrat in the State House a better experience for them, given what they believe as Democrats.  Hardly remarkable, but the MD Democrats failed to do this.  It's not like IL, where Quinn found out that his state employees pension plan required tax increases to keep it solvent. 

Hogan should be an underdog right now; the race should be "Leans D" right now.  It's not because there seems to not be a sense of urgency here.  There are a veritable slew of states that ought to be electing Democratic Governors next year.  If the Democrats don't hold a majority of Governorships two (2) years from today, they will be beyond lame.

[hcallega]

For the record, Delaney hasn't said that he's ruled out running.

He said in September of 2016 that he had "no plans" to run. But that was a world ago politically. Pre-POTUS Trump and pre-Perez winning the DNC Chair (which rules out his candidacy).

I fully expect that he will run and that he'll be the next Governor.

[henster]

Why is Hogan so popular, is it because the cancer? Because, he seems like a pretty meh Governor to me its not like MD is booming and his accomplishments seem pretty small. Same thing with Baker, to accomplish so little and be so popular...

[History505]

Why is Hogan so popular, is it because the cancer? Because, he seems like a pretty meh Governor to me its not like MD is booming and his accomplishments seem pretty small. Same thing with Baker, to accomplish so little and be so popular...

It's actually kinda hard to believe he has been in office for 2 years already.

[Gass3268]

Hogan came out today in FAVOR of the Democrats fracking ban legislation.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hogan came out today in FAVOR of the Democrats fracking ban legislation.

He must think he's in trouble if he's running to the left on the environment.

[Lothal1]

Hogan came out today in FAVOR of the Democrats fracking ban legislation.

He must think he's in trouble if he's running to the left on the environment.

There are a lot of annoying environmental voters in MD. Appeasing MoCo and HoCo will assure victory.

[Lothal1]

Why is Hogan so popular, is it because the cancer? Because, he seems like a pretty meh Governor to me its not like MD is booming and his accomplishments seem pretty small. Same thing with Baker, to accomplish so little and be so popular...

(Sorry for double post) 1. Cancer is a part. 2. His rule is as a reaction of Martin O'Malley's failures. He has reversed most of the things Martin did so wrong. 3. Transportation policy 4. beloved in Rural MD for obvious reasons. 5. person popularity.

[Virginiá]

http://www.wbaltv.com/article/poll-approval-ratings-for-gov-hogan-pres-trump/12462526

62% approval puts him within striking distance, although the opinion that Hogan is vulnerable isn't exactly a fringe one. It's just nice to see some numbers that confirm that. One upside for him is a bare majority of registered voters enthusiastic in 2018 said they are leaning towards a vote to re-elect him.

[_]

Lean R, he can definitely lose with the right opponent, but I don't see it atm.

[PragmaticPopulist]

http://www.wbaltv.com/article/poll-approval-ratings-for-gov-hogan-pres-trump/12462526

62% approval puts him within striking distance, although the opinion that Hogan is vulnerable isn't exactly a fringe one. It's just nice to see some numbers that confirm that. One upside for him is a bare majority of registered voters enthusiastic in 2018 said they are leaning towards a vote to re-elect him.

I don't recall what Ehrlich's approval rating was at this point before the 2006 election, but he was in positive territory when he was defeated. My guess is that Hogan's approval rating will drop further once the Democrats attack him as being insufficiently opposed to Trump. Like that poll suggests, Trump is absolutely poisonous in MD. Democrats could cast Hogan as enabling Trump's assault on government workers, his cuts to higher education etc.

Speaking of Trump's approval rating, 70% would suggest that Republicans have even further to fall in MD. I can see Trump losing Frederick County in 2020.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

65%.

[Maxwell]

real answer: a cool 51%.

That is, he's probably just barely at an advantage, but not really all that much. The thing is - if he's at 69% approval rating or above by election day, he's definitely winning, if his approval is more like 64% or so he might be winning but who knows. Right now he's already dipped to 62%, and that number is not going to get better during a campaign when people are going to advertise over and over again that his actual stances have, largely, been generic conservatism coming from a guy who doesn't foam at the mouth. The reason his approval has to be that high is, of course, he's in Maryland where the GOP ceiling is very very low and there is very little room for error. If he were in Pennsylvania, Virginia, or even New Jersey he'd be wiping the floor with whoever the Democrat was.

[Virginiá]

I don't recall what Ehrlich's approval rating was at this point before the 2006 election, but he was in positive territory when he was defeated.

53% - 36% in Jan 2006 (Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies - link)
56% - 41% in June 2006 (WaPo - link)
55% - 42% in October 2006 (WaPo - link)

WaPo's poll from early 2004 showed mid-60s, so there was a clear decline.

My personal belief is that Hogan's popularity is definitely an asset, but Maryland Democrats have a high floor and the enthusiasm gap and Trump's massive unpopularity in the state might just be too much to overcome, even for a well-liked Republican governor. This is really the worst kind of environment Hogan can run in, and due to MD's large minority electorate, it leaves him with little room to maneuver. In the end, high approval ratings/popularity sometimes just isn't enough.

I think a reasonable early prediction would be, at best, Leans R, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggling somewhat early on next year.