What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Maxwell]

I don't get why Republicans are so confident here - Scott Brown lost with a 70% approval rating. Hogan's numbers are not going to stay up when the campaign comes around.

[Maxwell]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

[Maxwell]

real answer: a cool 51%.

That is, he's probably just barely at an advantage, but not really all that much. The thing is - if he's at 69% approval rating or above by election day, he's definitely winning, if his approval is more like 64% or so he might be winning but who knows. Right now he's already dipped to 62%, and that number is not going to get better during a campaign when people are going to advertise over and over again that his actual stances have, largely, been generic conservatism coming from a guy who doesn't foam at the mouth. The reason his approval has to be that high is, of course, he's in Maryland where the GOP ceiling is very very low and there is very little room for error. If he were in Pennsylvania, Virginia, or even New Jersey he'd be wiping the floor with whoever the Democrat was.