Cook Political Report: Initial House + Senate Ratings

[publicunofficial]

As incumbent friendly as always:

Senate:

Likely D:
Michigan (Stabenow)
Montana (Tester)
New Jersey (Menendez)
North Dakota (Heitkamp)
Pennsylvania (Casey)
Virginia (Kaine)
West Virginia (Manchin)
Wisconsin (Baldwin)

Lean D:
Florida (Nelson)
Indiana (Donnelly)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Ohio (Brown)
Maine (King)

Lean R:
Arizona (Flake)
Nevada (Heller)

House:

Likely D:
FL-13 (Crist)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-17 (Bustos)
IA-02 (Loebsack)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NH-02 (Kuster)
NY-03 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Maloney)
OR-05 (Schrader)
PA-17 (Cartwright)
WI-03 (Kind)

Lean D:
AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-24 (Carbajal)
FL-07 (Murphy)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NV-04 (Kihuen)
NJ-05 (Gottheimer)

Toss-Up:
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NV-03 (Rosen)
CA-49 (Issa)

Lean R:
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-25 (Knight)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IA-01 (Blum)
MN-02 (Lewis)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NY-19 (Faso)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-23 (Hurd)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Likely R:
AZ-02 (McSally)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-45 (Walters)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
GA-06 (Price)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-12 (Bost)
IA-03 (Young)
KS-03 (Yoder)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-11 (Trott)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
NJ-07 (Lance)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
NY-22 (Tenney)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-06 (Costello)
PA-07 (Meehan)
PA-16 (Smucker)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-32 (Sessions)
WA-08 (Reichert)

I think everyone will have at least 2-3 gripes with this list.

[smoltchanov]

Good for beginning. I think we will have more or less real list by spring next year.

[Heisenberg]

Obviously will change over time, but NH-01 being in the top 3 most vulnerable/ lol, CSP is probably going to finally win in a midterm (other than 2006). I think she's improved her skills, and has the district's trends on her side. Next year will be her year. Some, like AZ-01, FL-07, NJ-05, MN-01, MN-08, and PA-17 are more likely to flip, IMO. But they're just early ratings, so they'll change as we get closer when we know the opponents, and what the national mood will be.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ROFL @ the idea of WV/ND being Likely D and MO/IN being Lean D.

[MT Treasurer]

I see Cook isn't even trying.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Obviously will change over time, but NH-01 being in the top 3 most vulnerable/ lol, CSP is probably going to finally win in a midterm (other than 2006). I think she's improved her skills, and has the district's trends on her side. Next year will be her year. Some, like AZ-01, FL-07, NJ-05, MN-01, MN-08, and PA-17 are more likely to flip, IMO. But they're just early ratings, so they'll change as we get closer when we know the opponents, and what the national mood will be.

I'm from NH-1 and I can tell you CSP is screwed come 2018. Her entire margin against a scandal plagued incumbent came from the town of Durham (UNH) which is guaranteed to have depressed turn out in a midterm. Especially if the state legislature passes the residency requirement and ends same day registration. Republican stronghold towns like Bedford, Derry, and Londonderry will turn out for the republican. Plus the district is trending republican. Northern Strafford towns broke heavy for trump, including Rochester. The only major city in the district (Manchester) will also have lower turnout.

[Heisenberg]

Obviously will change over time, but NH-01 being in the top 3 most vulnerable/ lol, CSP is probably going to finally win in a midterm (other than 2006). I think she's improved her skills, and has the district's trends on her side. Next year will be her year. Some, like AZ-01, FL-07, NJ-05, MN-01, MN-08, and PA-17 are more likely to flip, IMO. But they're just early ratings, so they'll change as we get closer when we know the opponents, and what the national mood will be.

I'm from NH-1 and I can tell you CSP is screwed come 2018. Her entire margin against a scandal plagued incumbent came from the town of Durham (UNH) which is guaranteed to have depressed turn out in a midterm. Especially if the state legislature passes the residency requirement and ends same day registration. Republican stronghold towns like Bedford, Derry, and Londonderry will turn out for the republican. Plus the district is trending republican. Northern Strafford towns broke heavy for trump, including Rochester. The only major city in the district (Manchester) will also have lower turnout.

She would have won by even more if it wasn't for the fact that there was a progressive Independent running as well, splitting the liberal vote.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Obviously will change over time, but NH-01 being in the top 3 most vulnerable/ lol, CSP is probably going to finally win in a midterm (other than 2006). I think she's improved her skills, and has the district's trends on her side. Next year will be her year. Some, like AZ-01, FL-07, NJ-05, MN-01, MN-08, and PA-17 are more likely to flip, IMO. But they're just early ratings, so they'll change as we get closer when we know the opponents, and what the national mood will be.

I'm from NH-1 and I can tell you CSP is screwed come 2018. Her entire margin against a scandal plagued incumbent came from the town of Durham (UNH) which is guaranteed to have depressed turn out in a midterm. Especially if the state legislature passes the residency requirement and ends same day registration. Republican stronghold towns like Bedford, Derry, and Londonderry will turn out for the republican. Plus the district is trending republican. Northern Strafford towns broke heavy for trump, including Rochester. The only major city in the district (Manchester) will also have lower turnout.

She would have won by even more if it wasn't for the fact that there was a progressive Independent running as well, splitting the liberal vote.

Guinta was horribly tainted. But if we had someone like say, Dan Innis running instead he would've won. The district went to Trump anyway, so CSP would've lost had we put up a better candidate. If Rich Ashooh won the primary he barely lost, he would've retired Crazy Carol forever

[Strudelcutie4427]

I don't get why the GOP should even bother with NH-01. Even if Shea-Porter were vulnerable (and she isn't), the Republican would either be guaranteed to be a one-termer or a liberal "RINO". Same is true for Annie Kuster's district.

NH-02 is Safe D and NH-01 is Likely D IMO. The GOP should focus on defending Poliquin and maybe finding a decent candidate to run against King rather than wasting time and money in NH.

Because NH will go republican once we pass laws making sure no out of state college students (who swung the state) and out of staters coming in and claiming fake addresses can vote. I worked the polls and a guy with a Massachusetts ID came to the polling place I was at in Hampton. He claimed to live at 15 R Street. Which doesn't exist. New Hampshire is worth the investment and you saw what happened with a little effort. All we need is to keep the rurals trending out way and get back the upscale voters in Bedford, Windham and Londonderry and you get mini-Ohio. Remember, only one town on the Vermont border took the presidency and senate from us. Maine I agree we should also target. The rural counties will come our way and the dems will only be concentrated in Portland and Orono. Both are worth the investment and it's not worth throwing a state you lost by 2,300 votes away. What if the dems did that with Florida in 2000 or if we did it with Florida in 2012

[publicunofficial]

NH-01 probably belongs in Toss-up IMO. Slim win against a corrupt incumbent in a Trump district. Also: Very real possibility that the only person Carol Shea-Porter is capabable of beating is Frank Guinta.

The Senate ratings are all over the place and I don't know why Cook doesn't want to call any race a toss-up this far out. Considers it a cop-out maybe? In any case, West Virginia is probably not Likely D.

The House I would probably move Cartwright, Walz, and Kind to Lean D at least and move CA-24 to Likely D.

[Virginiá]

Because NH will go republican once we pass laws making sure no out of state college students (who swung the state) and out of staters coming in and claiming fake addresses can vote.

I was under the impression New Hampshire already required people to live in the state in order to register to vote. (Link). Why would you have an out-of-state voter problem if you enforced that? You're not going to have thousands of people establishing residence in the state just to vote. That's just conspiracy talk.

Also by "out of state college students," do you mean people from out of state attending NH colleges? I thought trying to prohibit those students from voting was unconstitutional (Symm v. United States)? Even by existing NH rules those students would still meet the existing domicile requirements.

[MT Treasurer]

It is worth noting that Cook had Pryor (D-AR), Landrieu (D-LA), Begich (D-AK), Hagan (D-NC) and Udall (D-CO) all in the Lean or Likely D category at this point in 2013. They also had Illinois in the Lean R column in 2014/2015.

Their ratings are pretty much always nonsense.

[Xing]

Obviously, these are comically incumbent friendly, but the idea that Nelson and King are more vulnerable than Heitkamp and Manchin is pretty funny.

[publicunofficial]

It is worth noting that Cook had Pryor (D-AR), Landrieu (D-LA), Begich (D-AK), Hagan (D-NC) and Udall (D-CO) all in the Lean or Likely D category at this point in 2013. They also had Illinois in the Lean R column in 2014/2015.

Their ratings are pretty much always nonsense.

Even if you accept that the ratings are more supposed to be a snapshot of the race in it's current form, and not what you think it will be at in November 2018, Manchin already has his opponent and it's a popular Representative from Manchin's base. I don't know how you can call that Likely R at any point.

[Maxwell]

Sessions may be in a very interesting predicament if rumors are true about Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings. I'd say the race moves to Lean or even Tilt R if Rawlings jumps in but remains Safe R if Rawlings doesn't run, so Likely R is correct.

I'm not sure who would run against Culberson, but Likely sounds right considering it was the district that trended the most forward in the democrat direction (not like the Utah districts that just trended heavily AGAINST Trump).

[libertpaulian]

I don't get why the GOP should even bother with NH-01. Even if Shea-Porter were vulnerable (and she isn't), the Republican would either be guaranteed to be a one-termer or a liberal "RINO". Same is true for Annie Kuster's district.

NH-02 is Safe D and NH-01 is Likely D IMO. The GOP should focus on defending Poliquin and maybe finding a decent candidate to run against King rather than wasting time and money in NH.

Hell, the GOP is going to be needing to spend tons of money to save Darrell Issa's seat.

[MAINEiac4434]

I don't get why the GOP should even bother with NH-01. Even if Shea-Porter were vulnerable (and she isn't), the Republican would either be guaranteed to be a one-termer or a liberal "RINO". Same is true for Annie Kuster's district.

NH-02 is Safe D and NH-01 is Likely D IMO. The GOP should focus on defending Poliquin and maybe finding a decent candidate to run against King rather than wasting time and money in NH.

King's entrenched. He's the only gubernatorial candidate in the last thirty years to get more than fifty percent of the vote (and 1998 wasn't a great incumbent year). The only GOPer that might keep him up at night is...Poliquin. And even then, probably not.

[Figueira]

I don't get why the GOP should even bother with NH-01. Even if Shea-Porter were vulnerable (and she isn't), the Republican would either be guaranteed to be a one-termer or a liberal "RINO". Same is true for Annie Kuster's district.

NH-02 is Safe D and NH-01 is Likely D IMO. The GOP should focus on defending Poliquin and maybe finding a decent candidate to run against King rather than wasting time and money in NH.

King's entrenched. He's the only gubernatorial candidate in the last thirty years to get more than fifty percent of the vote (and 1998 wasn't a great incumbent year). The only GOPer that might keep him up at night is...Poliquin. And even then, probably not.

I don't see why Poliquin is considered such a great candidate. His win in 2014 seemed impressive at the time but in hindsight, not so much. And he slightly underperformed Trump in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Updates:

Lean R -> Toss Up
CA-25: Knight (R)
CO-06: Coffman (R)
MN-02: Lewis (R)

Likely R -> Lean R
AZ-02: McSally (R)
CA-39: Royce (R)
CA-45: Walters (R)
CA-48: Rohrabacher (R)
IL-06: Roskam (R)
IA-03: Young (R)
KS-03: Yoder (R)
MN-03: Paulsen (R)
NJ-07: Lance (R)
TX-07: Culberson (R)
TX-32: Sessions (R)

Solid R -> Likely R
IL-13: Davis (R)
IL-14: Hultgren (R)
KS-02: OPEN (R)
MI-08: Bishop (R)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R)
OH-01: Chabot (R)

Source

[Wiz in Wis]

Updates:

Lean R -> Toss Up
CA-25: Knight (R)
CO-06: Coffman (R)
MN-02: Lewis (R)

Likely R -> Lean R
AZ-02: McSally (R)
CA-39: Royce (R)
CA-45: Walters (R)
CA-48: Rohrabacher (R)
IL-06: Roskam (R)
IA-03: Young (R)
KS-03: Yoder (R)
MN-03: Paulsen (R)
NJ-07: Lance (R)
TX-07: Culberson (R)
TX-32: Sessions (R)

Solid R -> Likely R
IL-13: Davis (R)
IL-14: Hultgren (R)
KS-02: OPEN (R)
MI-08: Bishop (R)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R)
OH-01: Chabot (R)

Source

Missed one,

Likely R -> Lean D
FL-27: OPEN (R, Ros-Leihtinen retiring)

[Nyvin]

I don't get why the GOP should even bother with NH-01. Even if Shea-Porter were vulnerable (and she isn't), the Republican would either be guaranteed to be a one-termer or a liberal "RINO". Same is true for Annie Kuster's district.

NH-02 is Safe D and NH-01 is Likely D IMO. The GOP should focus on defending Poliquin and maybe finding a decent candidate to run against King rather than wasting time and money in NH.

Because NH will go republican once we pass laws making sure no out of state college students (who swung the state) and out of staters coming in and claiming fake addresses can vote. I worked the polls and a guy with a Massachusetts ID came to the polling place I was at in Hampton. He claimed to live at 15 R Street. Which doesn't exist. New Hampshire is worth the investment and you saw what happened with a little effort. All we need is to keep the rurals trending out way and get back the upscale voters in Bedford, Windham and Londonderry and you get mini-Ohio. Remember, only one town on the Vermont border took the presidency and senate from us. Maine I agree we should also target. The rural counties will come our way and the dems will only be concentrated in Portland and Orono. Both are worth the investment and it's not worth throwing a state you lost by 2,300 votes away. What if the dems did that with Florida in 2000 or if we did it with Florida in 2012

Out of state college students who live in NH (in dorms) are qualified to vote in NH.   You're just buying into conspiracy theories here.

Bedford and Windham trended heavily D,  Londonderry trended slightly D.    Rockingham and Hillsborough in general also trended D,  which are the main areas of growth in the state.  

NH voters are infamously elastic, and it's impossible to predict which way the state will go in the future.   Eliminating same day registration won't help the GOP as much as you think,  if anything it might end up being a wash since NH's turnout rate is already in the 70's anyway.   You can't legislate your way to a win, sorry.

[BuckeyeNut]

Updates:

Lean R -> Toss Up
CA-25: Knight (R)
CO-06: Coffman (R)
MN-02: Lewis (R)

Likely R -> Lean R
AZ-02: McSally (R)
CA-39: Royce (R)
CA-45: Walters (R)
CA-48: Rohrabacher (R)
IL-06: Roskam (R)
IA-03: Young (R)
KS-03: Yoder (R)
MN-03: Paulsen (R)
NJ-07: Lance (R)
TX-07: Culberson (R)
TX-32: Sessions (R)

Solid R -> Likely R
IL-13: Davis (R)
IL-14: Hultgren (R)
KS-02: OPEN (R)
MI-08: Bishop (R)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R)
OH-01: Chabot (R)

Source

Would love to see Chabot taken out again.

[Heisenberg]

I don't get why the GOP should even bother with NH-01. Even if Shea-Porter were vulnerable (and she isn't), the Republican would either be guaranteed to be a one-termer or a liberal "RINO". Same is true for Annie Kuster's district.

NH-02 is Safe D and NH-01 is Likely D IMO. The GOP should focus on defending Poliquin and maybe finding a decent candidate to run against King rather than wasting time and money in NH.

Hell, the GOP is going to be needing to spend tons of money to save Darrell Issa's seat.

I think they should just write off CA-49 as a loss.

[OneJ]

Updates:

Lean R -> Toss Up
CA-25: Knight (R)
CO-06: Coffman (R)
MN-02: Lewis (R)

Likely R -> Lean R
AZ-02: McSally (R)
CA-39: Royce (R)
CA-45: Walters (R)
CA-48: Rohrabacher (R)
IL-06: Roskam (R)
IA-03: Young (R)
KS-03: Yoder (R)
MN-03: Paulsen (R)
NJ-07: Lance (R)
TX-07: Culberson (R)
TX-32: Sessions (R)

Solid R -> Likely R
IL-13: Davis (R)
IL-14: Hultgren (R)
KS-02: OPEN (R)
MI-08: Bishop (R)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R)
OH-01: Chabot (R)

Source

Missed one,

Likely R -> Lean D
FL-27: OPEN (R, Ros-Leihtinen retiring)

Interesting. What is going on in the district of FL-27?

[Nyvin]

Updates:

Lean R -> Toss Up
CA-25: Knight (R)
CO-06: Coffman (R)
MN-02: Lewis (R)

Likely R -> Lean R
AZ-02: McSally (R)
CA-39: Royce (R)
CA-45: Walters (R)
CA-48: Rohrabacher (R)
IL-06: Roskam (R)
IA-03: Young (R)
KS-03: Yoder (R)
MN-03: Paulsen (R)
NJ-07: Lance (R)
TX-07: Culberson (R)
TX-32: Sessions (R)

Solid R -> Likely R
IL-13: Davis (R)
IL-14: Hultgren (R)
KS-02: OPEN (R)
MI-08: Bishop (R)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R)
OH-01: Chabot (R)

Source

Missed one,

Likely R -> Lean D
FL-27: OPEN (R, Ros-Leihtinen retiring)

Interesting. What is going on in the district of FL-27?

Ros-Lehtinen isn't running again next year.