Will the midterm electorate help protect the GOP house?

[publicunofficial]

And if the Dems lose as expected 2 more seats; in the senate, they will gain the Senate right back in 2020, defeating Ernst, Tillis, Sullivan or Daines and Gardner.

Iowa is gone, going full SJW/Hollywood/Coastal elitist pissed the state away. Deal with it, and get over it!

Dude, it's only been one election since Iowa went Democratic, and in Obama's Democratic Party no less. The state could very easily go Democratic again under the right circumstances, and Ernst is by no means a lock for re-election

But that hurts his narrative of "If Democrats want to win again, they need to silence the college students that hurt my feelings on the internet."

[politicallefty]

I don't where this logic comes from. We had two bad midterms for the incumbent President. That's the norm for this country. The President's party loses in midterms virtually always.  The idea that Democrats do well in presidential years and Republicans do well otherwise was borne out of good  years with Barack Obama on the ballot and bad years when he was not.

Donald Trump is the President now (as much it disgusts me to say). It is he who will be essentially on the ballot next year, and not in any positive way. The electorate gets angry fast and they take that anger out on the President's party. We're far away from the election, but I don't anything Trump has done will benefit the GOP House Majority. There's a very good chance it falls next year.

[krazen1211]

Our superior candidates and more intelligent voters will serve us well. Helps that we are up against the JV team!

[DC Al Fine]

I don't where this logic comes from. We had two bad midterms for the incumbent President. That's the norm for this country. The President's party loses in midterms virtually always.  The idea that Democrats do well in presidential years and Republicans do well otherwise was borne out of good  years with Barack Obama on the ballot and bad years when he was not.

All I'm saying is that the midterm electorate is historically whiter and therefore somewhat more GOP-friendly than the presidential electorate. This could potentially insulate the GOP from the worst of a wave midterm, turning a 50 seat loss to a 35 seat loss for example.

I repeatedly said it in 2014 and I'll say it now, barring a 9/11 type situation, there's no way the presidential party gains seats in the midterms, and even if then, it would only be in the single digits.

Yes, electoral truisms are always true... until they aren't. So Republicans will always do well in midterms... until they don't. Those who think 2018 doesn't have the potential to be brutal for Republicans are kidding themselves.

Yes and that's the kicker. How would it change? Is the historical GOP advantage mitigated by well-off, always voting whites no longer voting so Republican? Are minorities going to be energized to turn out in midterms?

[Virginiá]

Yes and that's the kicker. How would it change? Is the historical GOP advantage mitigated by well-off, always voting whites no longer voting so Republican? Are minorities going to be energized to turn out in midterms?

2006 saw 3% more Democrats than Republicans, but, on the other hand, 2010 saw equal amounts of Republicans and Democrats. 52-48 (R) among whites. In the end, a wave will have to be built on annoyed white voters. Aside from marginal turnout differences, if I had to give one non-racial group that the wave would be built off of, it would be a large flip in Independents.

[jamestroll]

I do not see what was so special about the 2014 midterm elections? A bunch of competitive Senate races all broke similarly to the GOP and the party out of the white house gained 14 seats in the House if I am remembering correctly.

It seems quite typical that competitive Senate races break similarly and the party in the white house losing 14 seats in a midterm should not have been particularly shocking.  Especially with a president with approvals in the 40s.

[MT Treasurer]

I'd say minority voters were quite motivated in many states in 2014, or else people like Nunn and Hagan wouldn't have been competitive.

I do not see what was so special about the 2014 midterm elections? A bunch of competitive Senate races all broke similarly to the GOP and the party out of the white house gained 14 seats in the House if I am remembering correctly.

Not to mention that they were all in Romney states, a state that is trending away from Democrats anyway (IA) and a state where the Democrats decided to throw the Senate seat away (CO). Republicans underperformed in several red states and weren't able to make states like MI, MN and NH even close. 2014 was hardly a big Republican wave. I'd say 2016 was a much better year for them.

[Angel of Death]

I would never underestimate the cognitive dissonance that could allow the Republican congresspeople to successfully distance themselves from Trump in the eyes of their base, him not being a "real Republican" when convenient.

[Skye]

It will probably help. But who knows how well will Trump be doing when we get there.