Will the midterm electorate help protect the GOP house?

[libertpaulian]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

[libertpaulian]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

Pretty sure college voters went for Hillary overall.

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

Hillary won college grads 49-44, postgrads 58-37.  Therefore her win among all voters with a college degree or higher is almost a 10% margin (if you believe this exit poll - but frankly this seems accurate just by looking at the counties she won overwhelmingly). 

I have to think these people will turn out at higher rates in 2018 than the general population, particularly given how pissed off they already are about alternative facts, etc.  If this crap show continues for 2 years they will be energized.

Correct but presumably the people who voted for GOP house candidates but not Trump were college educated republicans/ conservative leaning independents.

Well the common thinking here is that in realignments it starts on the Presidential level and then trickles down later.  2 more years of Trump and these people will probably want to send a message to the GOP...  I can't even begin to describe the level of disdain people in Virginia have for Republicans right now... much worse than in October/November.  Now maybe this cools down in 2 years, but I'm not sure it will.

Will it cool down in time for this November?

[libertpaulian]

College educated voters swung left in 2016.  They vote at higher levels in midterms than non-college educated voters.  This would normally spell disaster for Republicans.  However, the districts are pretty well gerrymandered so I'd guess the damage will be minor.  Overall, GOP probably loses 10 house seats mostly in suburban districts outside of big cities, e.g., Comstock in NOVA.

College educated voters are still GOP overall.  It's when said voters have master's', doctoral, or professional (medicine, law, etc.) degrees that they tend to lean more left.

Pretty sure college voters went for Hillary overall.

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

Hillary won college grads 49-44, postgrads 58-37.  Therefore her win among all voters with a college degree or higher is almost a 10% margin (if you believe this exit poll - but frankly this seems accurate just by looking at the counties she won overwhelmingly). 

I have to think these people will turn out at higher rates in 2018 than the general population, particularly given how pissed off they already are about alternative facts, etc.  If this crap show continues for 2 years they will be energized.

Correct but presumably the people who voted for GOP house candidates but not Trump were college educated republicans/ conservative leaning independents.

Well the common thinking here is that in realignments it starts on the Presidential level and then trickles down later.  2 more years of Trump and these people will probably want to send a message to the GOP...  I can't even begin to describe the level of disdain people in Virginia have for Republicans right now... much worse than in October/November.  Now maybe this cools down in 2 years, but I'm not sure it will.

Will it cool down in time for this November?

No chance in hell it cools down by November.  I can't even log into Facebook without seeing 20+ anti Trump wall posts at any given time... mostly from people I never even thought were political.  Democrats are fired up.  But not that many important races this November... I think there's what, 2 governors races?

I was asking in regards to the VA governor's race, given that you live in VA (I assume at least based on your avatar).