Redistricting in Virginia is going to be a bit complicated this time. Here's how I see it:
1. Next State Senate elections are in 2019, and if we can't win a majority then, but win the Governor's race this year, but lose Gov in 2021, the GOP can stall redistricting until early 2022 and try to pass rigged maps under a new GOP governor.
2. We win the Gov's race this year, and a State Senate majority in 2019, but lose Gov race in 2021. This allows the State Senate to block bad maps in 2021-2022. In all likelihood they'll probably settle for a bipartisan legislative gerrymander and a neutral Congressional map.
3. We win the Gov races this year and in 2021, and regardless of a State Senate majority in 2019+, we are able to veto bad maps for any chamber & Congressional.
I'm just worried that we win the Gov race this year, fail to get a senate majority in 2019, and then lose the Gov race in 2021, and the GOP (unconstitutionally, imo) punts redistricting into 2012 to avoid neutral maps. They already did this in 2011-2012.
However, given what I've seen from Trump and knowing how much the people's opinions of the presidency affect state-level voting choices, I can easily see Democrats winning this year's Gov race, a small senate majority in 2019 and maybe even 2021's Gov race. The end result is a fair Congressional map, and at least a State Senate map gerrymandered for Democrats but hopefully neutral maps for everything. The last thing we need is to allow bipartisan gerrymanders and to let Republicans lock themselves in another 10 year HoD majority.
Yeah in theory, Democrats could take back the HoD by 2019 and avoid some of that, but the Virginia State House has one of the worst maps in the country. However there's a lot of really low-hanging fruit in NoVA and Richmond, so if VA Dems are competent enough (which I believe they are), then they can get close to a majority this year, and then focus on the few remaining Clinton-won districts in Blacksburg, VA Beach, and the Eastern Shore in 2019.
If Trump is as toxic in 2019 as I think he will be, and assuming we still have elections, this is a difficult but plausible scenario.
