Will the midterm electorate help protect the GOP house?

[Virginiá]

may be limited to a net gain of 20 to 30 seats. Which would either be a narrow majority or narrow lose. They really want to aim for 40 seats to have an effective block to Trump.

A padded majority would be better, but any majority would be able to stop the worst excesses of the GOP/Trump. Aside from legislation, a major reason for Democrats to go all-out on the House is to be a check on Trump's administration. Chaffetz, being the partisan hack we all knew him to be, has signaled he has no intention to actually investigate the Trump administration in any meaningful manner unless his hand is absolutely forced. We need a mechanism in the federal govt to prevent abuse and corruption that is surely going to emanate from the executive branch now, and we won't get that without a majority in at least one of those 2 chambers.

If there is any executive administration that has needed stringent oversight, it is this one.

[Virginiá]

No chance in hell it cools down by November.  I can't even log into Facebook without seeing 20+ anti Trump wall posts at any given time... mostly from people I never even thought were political.  Democrats are fired up.  But not that many important races this November... I think there's what, 2 governors races?

While looking increasingly unlikely, the special election in North Carolina might get reinstated if SCOTUS makes a decision soon. I'd wager that the NCGOP's supermajority is broken in the state House should that happen.

Also, besides NJ Democrats potentially expanding their majorities, I am looking to the Virginia House of Delegates to see if a backlash to Trump is building (and to measure the rate of meaningful partisan change in VA overall). Large gains by Democrats in the HoD could signal a backlash against Republicans brewing, or at least an acceleration of VA's Democratic trend.

[Virginiá]

This is also something I'm keeping my eye on, seems like the Democrats have a good shot to break through the VA senate and make massive gains in the general assembly. If they hold onto to the governship, they're almost certain to break the lock on the Republican gerrymander of the Congressional House districts as well come next redistricting.

It's a good time to be a Democrat in Virginia.

Redistricting in Virginia is going to be a bit complicated this time. Here's how I see it:

1. Next State Senate elections are in 2019, and if we can't win a majority then, but win the Governor's race this year, but lose Gov in 2021, the GOP can stall redistricting until early 2022 and try to pass rigged maps under a new GOP governor.

2. We win the Gov's race this year, and a State Senate majority in 2019, but lose Gov race in 2021. This allows the State Senate to block bad maps in 2021-2022. In all likelihood they'll probably settle for a bipartisan legislative gerrymander and a neutral Congressional map.

3. We win the Gov races this year and in 2021, and regardless of a State Senate majority in 2019+, we are able to veto bad maps for any chamber & Congressional.

I'm just worried that we win the Gov race this year, fail to get a senate majority in 2019, and then lose the Gov race in 2021, and the GOP (unconstitutionally, imo) punts redistricting into 2012 to avoid neutral maps. They already did this in 2011-2012.

However, given what I've seen from Trump and knowing how much the people's opinions of the presidency affect state-level voting choices, I can easily see Democrats winning this year's Gov race, a small senate majority in 2019 and maybe even 2021's Gov race. The end result is a fair Congressional map, and at least a State Senate map gerrymandered for Democrats but hopefully neutral maps for everything. The last thing we need is to allow bipartisan gerrymanders and to let Republicans lock themselves in another 10 year HoD majority.

[Virginiá]

Yes and that's the kicker. How would it change? Is the historical GOP advantage mitigated by well-off, always voting whites no longer voting so Republican? Are minorities going to be energized to turn out in midterms?

2006 saw 3% more Democrats than Republicans, but, on the other hand, 2010 saw equal amounts of Republicans and Democrats. 52-48 (R) among whites. In the end, a wave will have to be built on annoyed white voters. Aside from marginal turnout differences, if I had to give one non-racial group that the wave would be built off of, it would be a large flip in Independents.