Will the midterm electorate help protect the GOP house?

[jamestroll]

I think it is a bizarre assumption that every midterm will be GOP friendly until the end of the time. I have seen Republican house gain projections as high as 60 for 2018. Republicans have a better chance at gaining a super Senate majority and even Democrats have a better chance of taking a majority in the Senate compared to the chances of the GOP gaining 60 house seats in 2018.

These assumptions are as stupid as the previous Atlas assumptions that there was a blue wall and Demographics would guarantee the Democrats the presidency until the end times. Or the previous assumption that 2004 was set in stone and all states would make exactly uniform swings.

It is worth noting that most competitive Senate races all break the same way. That could translate to very good news for the Democrats or very heart breaking news for the Democrats.

Also it could be easier for Democrats to contest republican-leaning seats in 2018 without the "socialist kenyan born muslim" in the white house. I can literally feel the energy the Democrats have right now. But they have got to have a message besides "trump sux" or they may be limited to a net gain of 20 to 30 seats. Which would either be a narrow majority or narrow lose. They really want to aim for 40 seats to have an effective block to Trump.

To this very day I believe that Democratic gains were a bit limited in 2006 due to their entire campaign being BUSH SUX HE IS HITLER!

It will be 2018. Eight years after lines are redrawn and people have changed, moved, became voting age. So the gerrymandering may not even be that much of an issue.

I have a very radical idea that the House of Representatives should be the peoples house. House districts should be largely drawn as compact as possible that correspond to population requirements. Politicians should not pick their voters.

[jamestroll]

People always assume that just Republicans are always bound to do well in midterms just because. If anything, midterms are a referendum on the incumbent president / majority party, and if things really go down south for Trump and the Republicans (and trust me, the last two weeks haven't been good for them whatsoever), then expect a Democratic wave year.

At very very minimum I think Democrats will be able to compete in a lot my territory outside their bases in 2018. A year in which Democrats gain like 14 house seats, several governorships, and make headway in state legislatures but lose 4 to 5 seats in the senate will still be defined by the media as a gop leaning year. Which would be insane because the Senate elections themselves are staggered and quite insulated.

Actually what I just wrote seems to be a very likely  outcome at this point.

[jamestroll]

I do not see what was so special about the 2014 midterm elections? A bunch of competitive Senate races all broke similarly to the GOP and the party out of the white house gained 14 seats in the House if I am remembering correctly.

It seems quite typical that competitive Senate races break similarly and the party in the white house losing 14 seats in a midterm should not have been particularly shocking.  Especially with a president with approvals in the 40s.