I don't where this logic comes from. We had two bad midterms for the incumbent President. That's the norm for this country. The President's party loses in midterms virtually always. The idea that Democrats do well in presidential years and Republicans do well otherwise was borne out of good years with Barack Obama on the ballot and bad years when he was not.
All I'm saying is that the midterm electorate is historically whiter and therefore somewhat more GOP-friendly than the presidential electorate. This could potentially insulate the GOP from the worst of a wave midterm, turning a 50 seat loss to a 35 seat loss for example.
I repeatedly said it in 2014 and I'll say it now, barring a 9/11 type situation, there's no way the presidential party gains seats in the midterms, and even if then, it would only be in the single digits.
Yes, electoral truisms are always true... until they aren't. So Republicans will always do well in midterms... until they don't. Those who think 2018 doesn't have the potential to be brutal for Republicans are kidding themselves.
Yes and that's the kicker.
How would it change? Is the historical GOP advantage mitigated by well-off, always voting whites no longer voting so Republican? Are minorities going to be energized to turn out in midterms?
