Wisconsin Legislative Redistricting

[Gass3268]

Any complaints if I were to calculate partisan data of these districts (swing, trend, etc.)?

[Gass3268]

Any complaints if I were to calculate partisan data of these districts (swing, trend, etc.)?

Good idea, but can you hold off posting anything yet?

The claim of the lawsuit is that the map-drawers had partisan data at a fine level, and then eliminated the 50-50 districts by making them more Republican flavored, moving Republicans in from other donor (districts). I want to avoid being tempted to set boundaries for partisan reasons.

Would it help to have ward lists for Milwaukee, any other cities that are split?

Yeah, I'll hold off posting until you are completely done and yes ward lists would be extreamly helpful.

[Gass3268]

I would consider a North/South approach for districts 6 and 7, rather than East/West or maybe a more diagonal orientation. I know it is possible to have 6 majority African American Assembly districts in Northern Milwaukee + Brown Deer that are all reasonable in their compactness and the VAP %.

[Gass3268]

Do you have the ward numbers for Milwaukee?

[Gass3268]

Do you have the ward numbers for Milwaukee?

I have the ward numbers and results for the 2008 election on DRA for each of my ADs. I have a PDF of the wards assigned in 2012, and the Atlas has the election totals for each of those wards for 2012. There are over 300 wards and it will be time consuming to match them all by hand in a spreadsheet. I was hoping for a quicker conversion.

Luckily they did not make any major changes to the ward map during redistricting.

[Gass3268]

Do you have the ward numbers for Milwaukee?

I have the ward numbers and results for the 2008 election on DRA for each of my ADs. I have a PDF of the wards assigned in 2012, and the Atlas has the election totals for each of those wards for 2012. There are over 300 wards and it will be time consuming to match them all by hand in a spreadsheet. I was hoping for a quicker conversion.

Luckily they did not make any major changes to the ward map during redistricting.

But all the ward numbers are different, so there is a lot of matching by hand.

True, I'm just going throw eyeballing the current map to the ward lines jimrtex had on his map.

[Gass3268]

Just a heads up jimrtex that your Assembly District numbering is off. You missed District 30, went from 29 to 31.

[Gass3268]

Do you have a map showing the Janesville split?

[Gass3268]

Do you have a map showing the Janesville split?

Janesville city is completely whole (AD 10) except for ward 5 on DRA which is the far northern end of the city. That corresponds essentially to wards 19, 20, 21, 22 and 26 on the current ward map.

Thanks, but it was jimrtex's map where I couldn't tell where the split was in Janesville. Once I'm done with his map, I'll go through your's to come up with the 2016 numbers.

[Gass3268]

Neutral districts can also say a lot about trends. Since they aren't gerrymandered to pack or crack parties they can show how the natural political leanings are shifting. For example, consider the 6 whole county ADs in northern WI. PVIs reflect a districts political leanings compared to the national presidential average, and I'll look at the last 3 cycles (2008, 2012, 2016) and negative numbers are Pub. Instead of averaging two cycles, I'll keep each cycle separate.



AD 85 (Merinette): PVI (-0.5, -4.1, -18.4)
AD 86 (Rhinelander): PVI (0.0, -4.7, -13.2)
AD 87 (Merrill): PVI (1.9, -1.8, -7.4)

AD 88 (Ashland): PVI (4.5, 2.6, -4.8 )
AD 89 (Superior): PVI (9.1, 8.9, -1.9)
AD 90 (Osceola): PVI (-4.1, -6.2, -15.7)

Notice that the Pub swing was already underway from 2008 to 2012, with shifts of up to almost -5% in AD 86. But the shift for 2016 is really astounding with PVI jumps of -14% in AD 85, and almost -11% in the tradition Dem bastion of Superior. It defies common wisdom that AD 89 would support a Pub candidate, yet Trump won by 458 votes out of over 30K cast. This is one of the clearest indications I've seen of the effect of the Dem loss of the WWC and why Trump won WI.

This is true, but I think it's easy to forget just how big and in many ways unprecedented Obama's win was in Wisconsin in 2008. He won counties that Democrats almost never win. 2004 to 2016 would be a better comparison.

[Gass3268]

Luckily by the next census, the Town of Madison will probably have been annexed by Madison and Fitchburg. Burke and Blooming Grove hopefully will be gone by 2030. You will also see further growth of Madison into the towns of Middleton, Verona, and Westport. Possibly Cottage Grove and Sun Prairie in the long term. This could also result in Cottage Grove, Verona, and Waunakee merging with their respective towns to prevent the spread of Madison.

Also should note that the Windsor has upgraded from a town to a village, due to their issues with DeForest.

[Gass3268]

Luckily by the next census, the Town of Madison will probably have been annexed by Madison and Fitchburg. Burke and Blooming Grove hopefully will be gone by 2030. You will also see further growth of Madison into the towns of Middleton, Verona, and Westport. Possibly Cottage Grove and Sun Prairie in the long term. This could also result in Cottage Grove, Verona, and Waunakee merging with their respective towns to prevent the spread of Madison.

Also should note that the Windsor has upgraded from a town to a village, due to their issues with DeForest.

Apparently the plan going back over a decade was to dissolve the Town of Madison in 2022. Last summer Madison and Fitchburg proposed moving that up to the end of 2016 with most going to Madison and a few southern pieces going to Fitchburg. Since the Town of Madison is still holding meetings, it looks like that hasn't happened.

Blooming Grove has an agreement with Madison to dissolve by 2027, so they will be around for only one more Census. The agreement with Burke includes Madison, DeForest and Sun Prairie and extends until 2036.

I didn't know that the Town of Madison opposed. It would probably be beneficial to everyone to get that integrated into Madison and Fitchburg before 2020. I know that the Town of Burke agreement was the last, but didn't know it was that long. Hopefully that gets pushed up in the future. The rate Madison and Sun Prairie is growing, it might not matter. I made a map once on what a future Madison would look like after all these mergers, I'll have to see if I can find it.

[Gass3268]

While it might be a Trump only thing, I would not be shocked if some of the parts of the WOW counties closest to Milwaukee County could become competitive in the future. Especially Brookfield, Mequon, and Waukesha.

[Gass3268]

jimrtex, confirming that you have not finished all of the Districts in Dane County, correct?

[Gass3268]

Winnebago 2.907 is entitled to 3 districts.

Oshkosh 1.150 is too large for one district and will have one district, with the surplus trimmed off. The Appleton suburbs: Appleton City, Menasha city and town, and Neenah city and town are too large for a district. One possibility would be to split Menasha Town, keeping the cities whole. I instead decided to split Neenah city, based on splitting the larger entity.

If the area trimmed from Neenah is on the south, and that from Oshkosh on the north, roughly 40% of the remaining district will be between Neenah and Oshkosh on the shore of Lake Winnebago.



69. Oshkosh city (part, 0.969) 0.969

70. Appleton city, Menasha city, Menasha town. and Neenah city (part, 0.357) 0.969

71. Algoma town, Black Wolf town, Clayton town, Neenah city (part, 0.087), Neenah town, Nekimi town, Nepeuskun town, Omro city, Omro town, Oshkosh city (part, 0.181), Oshkosh town, Poygan town, Rushford town, Utica town, Vinland town, Winchester town, Winneconne town, Winneconne village, and Wolf River town. 0.969

Did you figure out the splits for Neenha and Oshkosh?

[Gass3268]

Do you see any showstopping issues in my division of Mad City? It's a 5-way split using Monona, McFarland, Middleton, and the adjacent towns to meet the population quota.

Nope. It looks like it does a good job of keeping the various parts of town intact: campus, Southwest, Far West, Near East+North, Far East. If allowable under rules for splitting cities, a 5-way split of Madison comes out a lot cleaner along neighborhood lines.

Agreed, this is a much cleaner split for Madison and the County. It would probably result in a UW Student getting elected to the Assembly, which would be cool.