Serious Q for Republicans

[Tartarus Sauce]

I think the fundamental disagreements about which groups are, which groups aren't, and which groups could potentially be conservative has to do with the fact that the different ideological factions of conservatism are splintering and in the process of potentially realigning. The foreign policy conservatives are already some of the most alienated from the current shift under Trump, which is why so many of the former Reagan through Bush Jr. era security-intelligence community and state department officials overwhelmingly backed Clinton. Socially moderate, fiscal conservatives were also appalled by Trump and swung against him in many suburbs across the nation during the election, and this is the group that has the greatest potential for even further alienation from the conservative coalition. College-educated Whites compose a rather large percentage of this branch of the conservative coalition, and college educated whites are far less receptive to authoritarian populism than working class whites.

And then there's the social conservatives, who I would argue are the true lifeblood of the Republican party, and also the reason that the original conservative coalition is possibly on the verge of unraveling entirely. The Religious Right has so heavily affixed themselves to the Republican platform that they have essentially politicized the Republican party into a self-styled "Christian" party. No, you don't have to be Christian to be a Republican, but "traditional" Christian values are a hallmark of the Republican brand. The crux of the matter is that American society is increasingly not accepting traditional Christian values as the standard, and the Evangelicals, conservative Catholics, and conservative Mainlines have as a result fulfilled the role of cultural reactionaries. Trump has finalized the transfer of a new group of cultural reactionaries who aren't nearly as religiously minded yet still have political enemies in common with social conservatives: liberals, illegal immigrants, and Muslims.

Trump is now overwhelmingly backed by conservative Christians despite a cool reception at first, because he has promised to be their culturally reactionary champion. He has pandered to them in the most obscenely hollow of ways, yet that in itself should indicate how they will accept anybody who pantomimes their values no matter how insincere and shallow the display may be. They are desperate to turn back the tide of a diversifying, liberalizing, and increasingly pluralist society that doesn't follow their norms.

The threat here is that Trump could end up realigning the axis of the Republican party. Traditionally, social conservatives and social moderates in the right wing have found common ground on economic issues. Trump has the potential to shift that alliance into one between social conservatives and economic protectionists by having cultural reactionism usurp fiscal policy as the unifying link between factions. That would wholesale alienate the majority of your educated suburban, socially moderate Republicans that already swung against Trump in the general election. That should serve as an omen to what could happen to an even greater degree if cultural issues become the defining feature of the Republican party under Trump's auspices, because college-educated, fiscally conservative Republicans have more in common culturally with college educated liberals than they do with either social conservatives or the Trump faction.

I'm not saying this necessarily will happen, but if it does, it's the recipe for Republicans delegating themselves to the status of a minority party for at least a couple of decades. They would become the party of White Christian nationalism during a period of time when a rising tide of minorities, immigrants, Millennials, and college-educated Whites want nothing to do with White Christian nationalism. This is what the Republicans must keep in mind if they want to remain a viable party on the national level.