Which state do Democrats have a better chance of carrying: NC or GA?

[heatcharger]

Before 2016, the answer to this question would've been obvious. However, I'm starting to question whether there are enough Democratic votes in North Carolina to carry the state. One could argue that GOP voter suppression worked like a charm, but even without it, I doubt it would've been enough to carry the state for Hillary. Furthermore, exit polls show that migrants into the state aren't as Democratic as thought to be, which leads me to believe a lot of retirees are flooding the state.

On the other hand, Georgia was one of the handful of states to swing left this election, and based on exit polls, the youngs in the state are decisively more Democratic than North Carolina's. This happened while black turnout fell in the state as well, and Democrats didn't put nearly as much effort into the state as they did in NC. Also, a lot of the growth in Metro Atlanta mirrors what I've seen in Northern Virginia, so I'm starting to think GA, instead of NC, will be the next VA.

[White Trash]

I'm still gonna go with North Carolina. Growth in the research triangle should be enough for the state to swing further left in 2020.

[SATW]

NC, easily.

[Roronoa D. Law]

NC but after this election I think if a Democrat wins NC they will win GA and vice versa.

[Adam Griffin]

No - Georgia is obviously total fool's gold for the Democrats and we should continue to pump hundreds of millions of dollars into uber swing-state NC!

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Truly inspiring!

"Trend" is effectively meaningless outside of Atlas nerd analysis, though.

But if we are gonna look at it, then look at the trend of the trend: NC is spent. NC's 2012 trend beat GA by a measly 0.2 points and in 2016, NC got stomped by GA. This is with NC getting tons of investment and money, and GA getting none.

All that money can buy there has been bought already. Time to invest in GA!

[TDAS04]

Probably North Carolina.

[henster]

NC is starting to look like fools gold. With a contested primary and running against an incumbent Ds will have less resources than in 2016, NC or GA may not be contested at all in 2020.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Isn't that famous "Research Triangle" one of the most dynamic area of the country ?

[MT Treasurer]

I voted Georgia, but it is somewhat close. The people who act like GA is so much more Republican than NC remind of those who think that NH is a Tossup but ME is Safe D.

And yeah, I agree that GA is going the way of VA, and I don't see that happening in NC (or even TX, NV and AZ, for that matter).

[Xing]

Still North Carolina. Yes, it's true that Democrats haven't invested much in the state yet, but if they were to, Republicans would defend it.

[JoshPA]

North Carolina    even thought I DONT think it will go blue in 2020 but it more blue then Georgia.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Still North Carolina. Yes, it's true that Democrats haven't invested much in the state yet, but if they were to, Republicans would defend it.

The Democrats should. Georgia and North Carolina are basically even in population. Still Census show that Atlanta CSA is bigger than Charlotte (W/O SC), Research Triangle , and Piedmont Triad CSAs combined. Atlanta also had more numerical growth to its CSA then NC 3 largest CSA combined. Now lets say the money Democrats poured into 3 metros in NC was spent in just the Atlanta area. We would be even having the conversation?

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina because it has a Democratic Governor who will not suppress the vote on behalf of Donald Trump.

The most important elections in 2018 with respect to the Presidential election of 2020 could be Governorships because voter suppression can decide how some states vote.

Of course should the Democrats win the race for Governor of Georgia, then Donald Trump will be in really bad shape if his approval ratings in late October 2020 are underwater.

[Fuzzy Bear]

NC elected a Democratic Senator in 2008 and a Democratic Governor in 2016.  This is a no-brainer.

[Devils30]

Carolina in 2020 but Georgia after. Once the oldest generation of Georgia dies out, it will be a very tough state for the GOP to hold.

[Wisniewski for Governor]

Carolina in 2020 but Georgia after. Once the oldest generation of Georgia dies out, it will be a very tough state for the GOP to hold.

NC but after this election I think if a Democrat wins NC they will win GA and vice versa.

Agreed.

[Mr. Smith]

One of 'em was within 3 points despite almost no money in '08, then it remained within five points with only a penultimate minute push [the absolute last minute was of course, Michigan].

Senator wise: They were within easy range of taking out incumbent the first time, and within 5-6 points with an absolute lightweight candidate.

For the other incumbent, only a token was put in both times, last time, pretty sure Barksdale overperformed [not that that says too much]


The other state barely flipped with all the money in the world, went the other way despite a Convention setting, and finally swung even harder away and barely trended favorably.

Senator wise, the big flip came more because the incumbent ran a horrendous and otherwise wouldn't have happened...and the next time around, despite everything, they lost it.

And the other senator had good candidates thrown at him, and he won bigly anyway.


The answer is clearly then, Georgia.

[Canis]

I would say north Carolina but the dems need to focus on re taking the rustbelt then they should focus on flipping AZ, GA, and NC

[Suburbia]

North Carolina. It has a larger minority population and Democrats will win black voters in NC, however, Democrats have to appeal to suburban white voters, who have fled the party in midterms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC, because in 2020 Tillis will be defeated

[Roronoa D. Law]

North Carolina. It has a larger minority population and Democrats will win black voters in NC, however, Democrats have to appeal to suburban white voters, who have fled the party in midterms.

                          Minority Share       Non Hispanic White share      Minority Voter Share 16
Georgia                   45.7%                             54.3%                                  40%
North Carolina         35.9%                               64.1%                                 30%

[Lief 🗽]

At the end of the day, there is a coalition of 50% of voters of North Carolina who will vote for a Democrat.  Not clear such a coalition exists in Georgia yet.