Monroe County, FL (The Keys)

[TDAS04]

The Florida Keys are hard to pin down.  What best explains their peculiar voting patterns?

In 2008, Monroe was the Florida county to vote against the state's constitutional gay marriage ban, and did so with 52%.  Obama carried it that year, also with 52%, not that much.  In 2012, Obama carried the county by an even slimmer percentage than he carried Florida.  Then in 2016, Trump won there.  I would have expected such a pro-gay county to be more consistently in favor of Democratic candidates.  Yes, I'm aware that there are pro-SSM Republicans, but Republicans who publicly backed SSM were very rare in 2008.

Are the Keys just full of libertarian-types or pro-business gays or something?

[Adam Griffin]

Counties like this are the epitome of why I take such issue with wealthier LGBT types: there are a lot more of them in the GOP in the upper income brackets than some people realize, as well as a substantial portion that only vote Democratic because of LGBT issues in particular (and would totally be Republican otherwise). The fact that Trump largely excluded LGBTs in his fearmongering - unlike recent GOP nominees - presumably played a role there within these demographics, which are over-represented in Monroe by a considerable amount.

I know I'm not necessarily using data here to back up my claims, but I guarantee you the fact that Monroe is a kitschy, somewhat wealthier and eccentric enclave for gay men in particular plays a role in all of this.

[jimrtex]

The Florida Keys are hard to pin down.  What best explains their peculiar voting patterns?

In 2008, Monroe was the Florida county to vote against the state's constitutional gay marriage ban, and did so with 52%.  Obama carried it that year, also with 52%, not that much.  In 2012, Obama carried the county by an even slimmer percentage than he carried Florida.  Then in 2016, Trump won there.  I would have expected such a pro-gay county to be more consistently in favor of Democratic candidates.  Yes, I'm aware that there are pro-SSM Republicans, but Republicans who publicly backed SSM were very rare in 2008.

Are the Keys just full of libertarian-types or pro-business gays or something?

Monroe County ≠ Key West.

Clinton carried the 10 Key West precincts by 64:36 (two-way vote).

Trump carried the remainder of the county by 39:61

Key West had 30% of the total vote, the remainder of the county 70% resulting in as 46:54 win for Trump.

The vote generall becomes more Republican the closer you get to Miami, with the larger places (Marathon and Key Largo) not being quite as Republican as the smaller locations (low 60s vs. high 60s).

[Figueira]

The Florida Keys are hard to pin down.  What best explains their peculiar voting patterns?

In 2008, Monroe was the Florida county to vote against the state's constitutional gay marriage ban, and did so with 52%.  Obama carried it that year, also with 52%, not that much.  In 2012, Obama carried the county by an even slimmer percentage than he carried Florida.  Then in 2016, Trump won there.  I would have expected such a pro-gay county to be more consistently in favor of Democratic candidates.  Yes, I'm aware that there are pro-SSM Republicans, but Republicans who publicly backed SSM were very rare in 2008.

Are the Keys just full of libertarian-types or pro-business gays or something?

Monroe County ≠ Key West.

Clinton carried the 10 Key West precincts by 64:36 (two-way vote).

Trump carried the remainder of the county by 39:61

Key West had 30% of the total vote, the remainder of the county 70% resulting in as 46:54 win for Trump.

The vote generall becomes more Republican the closer you get to Miami, with the larger places (Marathon and Key Largo) not being quite as Republican as the smaller locations (low 60s vs. high 60s).

So I guess the near-universal backing of SSM in Key West (even among the few Republicans there) was enough to overcome the mild opposition in the other Keys? Are there precinct maps of that referendum out there?

[jimrtex]

The Florida Keys are hard to pin down.  What best explains their peculiar voting patterns?

In 2008, Monroe was the Florida county to vote against the state's constitutional gay marriage ban, and did so with 52%.  Obama carried it that year, also with 52%, not that much.  In 2012, Obama carried the county by an even slimmer percentage than he carried Florida.  Then in 2016, Trump won there.  I would have expected such a pro-gay county to be more consistently in favor of Democratic candidates.  Yes, I'm aware that there are pro-SSM Republicans, but Republicans who publicly backed SSM were very rare in 2008.

Are the Keys just full of libertarian-types or pro-business gays or something?

Monroe County ≠ Key West.

Clinton carried the 10 Key West precincts by 64:36 (two-way vote).

Trump carried the remainder of the county by 39:61

Key West had 30% of the total vote, the remainder of the county 70% resulting in as 46:54 win for Trump.

The vote generall becomes more Republican the closer you get to Miami, with the larger places (Marathon and Key Largo) not being quite as Republican as the smaller locations (low 60s vs. high 60s).

So I guess the near-universal backing of SSM in Key West (even among the few Republicans there) was enough to overcome the mild opposition in the other Keys? Are there precinct maps of that referendum out there?

There are precinct results available. Precincts in Monroe County are numbered west to east. It is easier to simply classify them by the the city of the polling place. Key West has 10 precincts, Key Largo 6, and Marathon 5. The other 12 precincts are divided among 8 cities.

There was quite a bit of variation among precincts in Key West, but in general Obama did better than No on Amendment 2.

Key West: Obama 69%, No 65%. An extreme example voted at MLK Pool:
   MLK Pool: Obama 90%, No 69%

Overall, the strongest Obama precincts had the largest swing towards Yes. But the strongest McCain precinct had the second largest swing to Yes.

In the rest of the rest of county: McCain 57%, Yes 54%. There was relatively little variation in the swing. In the rest of the county, it appears that McCain voters were more likely to vote Yes, but it was nowhere a case of McCain voters being 100% Yes and Obama voters 100% No.