It's 2036 - which state is more Democratic?

[MT Treasurer]

- Virginia or Maryland?
- Texas or Florida?
- Nevada or Colorado?
- Michigan or Pennsylvania?
- Rhode Island or New Hampshire?
- North Carolina or Georgia?

I'd say VA, FL, CO, PA, NH and GA.

[Figueira]

MD, FL, CO, MI, RI, GA.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Maryland will be the hardest state for the GOP to win.

[Bismarck]

Agree with the consensus except I think Nevada will be more democratic than Colorado.

[Figueira]

On second thought, I actually think it might be more likely that PA will be more Democratic than MI.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

MD, FL, CO, MI, RI, GA.

This, but the PA-MI one could go either way, depending on what direction the GOP goes in.

[Figueira]

MD, FL, CO, MI, RI, GA.

This, but the PA-MI one could go either way, depending on what direction the GOP goes in.

Yeah, I'm starting to think PA might be the safer bet because of its foothold on the East Coast and the fact that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh aren't shrinking the way Detroit is.

[MT Treasurer]

Maryland will be the hardest state for the GOP to win.

I think it will be CA, VA and MD in that order. Maybe HI as well.    

I am also taking statewide and Senate races into account.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Maryland will be the hardest state for the GOP to win.

I think it will be CA, VA and MD in that order. Maybe HI as well.    

I am also taking statewide and Senate races into account.

Virginia still has a large Appalachian population and parts of the state are still culturally very Southern.  I think that New York will also be more Democrat than VA.

[RINO Tom]

- Virginia or Maryland?
- Texas or Florida?
- Nevada or Colorado?
- Michigan or Pennsylvania?
- Rhode Island or New Hampshire?
- North Carolina or Georgia?

I'd say VA, FL, CO, PA, NH and GA.

MD, by a lot
FL, barely
NV, barely
MI
RI, by a lot
NC, barely

[RINO Tom]

Maryland will be the hardest state for the GOP to win.

Honestly, I think Maryland has been, is and will be the hardest state for the GOP to win under a variety of circumstances.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

MD, TX, CO, MI, RI, GA

[Wisniewski for Governor]

MD, FL, CO, MI, RI, GA.

This, but the PA-MI one could go either way, depending on what direction the GOP goes in.

Yeah, I'm starting to think PA might be the safer bet because of its foothold on the East Coast and the fact that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh aren't shrinking the way Detroit is.

Agreed.

[MT Treasurer]

Virginia still has a large Appalachian population and parts of the state are still culturally very Southern.  I think that New York will also be more Democrat than VA.

Yeah, but those parts of the state don't get to decide elections and are always outvoted by NoVA and Richmond. I don't expect that to change in the next 20 years, VA is very inelastic.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

MD, FL, CO, MI, RI, GA.

This, but the PA-MI one could go either way, depending on what direction the GOP goes in.

Yeah, I'm starting to think PA might be the safer bet because of its foothold on the East Coast and the fact that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh aren't shrinking the way Detroit is.

Agreed.

-You could make an argument either way here, but Detroit is going to stop shrinking soon enough, if it hasn't already.

[heatcharger]

What's next, ANGRY VA WOMEN are gonna turn the state Titanium D? I can't wait for you to be vindicated when Climbing Ralph wins by like 4 points.

[blacknwhiterose]

Maryland or Virginia?  Maryland.  Dems continue to cruise on strength of black vote.  NoVa maxes out and VA becomes very inelastic, lean Democrat state.

Texas or Florida?  Florida, but closer than one might think.  GOP make inroads with Texas Mexicans to halt Californication of Texas.  FL remains a wacky, lean Republican state.

Nevada or Colorado?  Colorado.  Mountain hipsters and the ski club keep CO lean Dem.  Nevada experiences a severe desert drought, more populist Republicans make inroads with poor hispanics and other parched NVers.

Michigan or Pennsylvania?  Pretty close, but probably Michigan.  Michigan is currently slightly more Democratic and is less elastic than PA.

Rhode Island or New Hampshire.  Rhode Island.  Rural New England finally follows rural America turn to GOP, though RI also trends a tad Republican as well.

North Carolina or Georgia?  Georgia.  Large Atlanta cosmopolitan population turns GA into somewhat of an Illinois of the South.



 

[Cokeland Chastain]

Probably GA, VA, MD, NV, and CO especially, due to the growth of their cities.

[DPKdebator]

MD, FL, NV, MI, RI, NC is my guess, but it's virtually impossible to predict our nation's politics in 2036.

[RaphaelDLG]

Why is everyone saying that Georgia is going to be more democratic than North Carolina?...

Atlanta is growing very fast, and is increasingly full of black people and rich northerners.

[Xing]

VA, FL, RI (lol), and MI for sure.

I'm not as sure about the other two questions. I think NV/CO will be about the same, as will NC/GA.

A more interesting question would be Loving County, TX or Wisconsin. I'd say Lean Loving County.

[Del Tachi]

MD, TX, NV, PA, RI and NC

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

^Hmm, this is plausible, but I don't see NJ happening for the GOP. If anything, the state is trending more Democrat. I also think Montana should be safe GOP in this case. Alaska will be fascinating, I have no idea how the state will trend in the future. I could also see the GOP rebounding in New Mexico, but that's probably a stretch. Nevada could go the way of New Mexico, but I wouldn't be surprised if it became a mini Florida.

The only reason Montana isn't safe GOP is the Mormon 3rd party running statewide candidates and occasionally endorsing Democrats there.

-There are not many Mormons in MT.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

^Hmm, this is plausible, but I don't see NJ happening for the GOP. If anything, the state is trending more Democrat. I also think Montana should be safe GOP in this case. Alaska will be fascinating, I have no idea how the state will trend in the future. I could also see the GOP rebounding in New Mexico, but that's probably a stretch. Nevada could go the way of New Mexico, but I wouldn't be surprised if it became a mini Florida.

The only reason Montana isn't safe GOP is the Mormon 3rd party running statewide candidates and occasionally endorsing Democrats there.

-There are not many Mormons in MT.

They are about 5%, very likely enough to flip the state in a 2008 environment if they voted for a local McMullin.

-Indiana flipped in 2008!