Most vulnerable Southern state for Republicans

[Tieteobserver]

Cleveland is still the Democratic stronghold of Ohio and will almost certainly remain so for a long time, but it's not because of an influx of liberal gentry, it's heavily Democratic because it has a very large blue collar industrial population and a large black population. It's a union vote Democratic area. It's slowly shrinking in population and the west side will probably have a Pittsburgh-like phenomenon in 30 years or so, but it has more liberal eastern suburbs and a larger black population than Pittsburgh so I can't see it trending quite as hard.

Cleveland's history is that of immigrant waves coming and settling in little ethnic neighborhoods built around a church or two nearby a factory. During the 60s and 70s, the combination of shuttered industry and racial tensions started the suburbanization process and caused people to begin fleeing the metro area. It was managed much better than Detroit and the city itself actually has a budget surplus and can function as a government, but much of the city is still a shadow of its former self. The Republicans have made inroads in the white ethnic groups, mainly because of social conservatism (ie. abortion, gay marriage, etc) but will have a very hard time actually winning there because of free trade and union issues. As a result, a lot of the more working class areas vote more lopsidedly in favor of the Democrats on the local level than the presidential level.

Also I used to live in Cleveland

Its a shame what happened to the so-called "Rust Belt". Those cities have by far the coolest skylines, and are in my opinion the most beautiful cities in America. I like "old" cities. Unfortunately, even with 5 decades of decline brought by unionism, they still seem not to learn. Whilst Whites down South have long shifted to the GOP, many ethnic Whites up there seem to be very stubborn going Republican. I'd say even the old southern Whites were not that stubborn leaving the Dems.

[illegaloperation]

Its a shame what happened to the so-called "Rust Belt". Those cities have by far the coolest skylines, and are in my opinion the most beautiful cities in America. I like "old" cities. Unfortunately, even with 5 decades of decline brought by unionism, they still seem not to learn. Whilst Whites down South have long shifted to the GOP, many ethnic Whites up there seem to be very stubborn going Republican. I'd say even the old southern Whites were not that stubborn leaving the Dems.

Stop blaming unions!!!

North Carolina has a big decline in manufacturing and yet it has a right to work law since 1947.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Virginia, obviously.

We'll consider Oklahoma a plains state, and Florida is no longer a Southern state.

Florida is still a semi-Southern state.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Virginia is the only objectively correct answer.

Like Florida, Virginia is no longer a Southern State. It is becoming Michigan without the industrial rot. It is a disaster for the GOP because of its cosmopolitanism and large African-American population.

For "no longer being Southern" (it was the only former-Confederate state that did not vote for Carter in 1976) it is more like Michigan than any Southern state. I disqualify Virginia even though it is otherwise the "right" answer.

That leaves North Carolina, which did vote for Carter in 1976 with Carter running a a "Good Ole Boy" but did not vote for Bill Clinton. 

It's actually becoming more like Massachusetts or New York.  Virginia, both culturally and politically, is becoming more of a Northeastern than a Southern state.

[TJ in Oregon]

Cleveland is still the Democratic stronghold of Ohio and will almost certainly remain so for a long time, but it's not because of an influx of liberal gentry, it's heavily Democratic because it has a very large blue collar industrial population and a large black population. It's a union vote Democratic area. It's slowly shrinking in population and the west side will probably have a Pittsburgh-like phenomenon in 30 years or so, but it has more liberal eastern suburbs and a larger black population than Pittsburgh so I can't see it trending quite as hard.

Cleveland's history is that of immigrant waves coming and settling in little ethnic neighborhoods built around a church or two nearby a factory. During the 60s and 70s, the combination of shuttered industry and racial tensions started the suburbanization process and caused people to begin fleeing the metro area. It was managed much better than Detroit and the city itself actually has a budget surplus and can function as a government, but much of the city is still a shadow of its former self. The Republicans have made inroads in the white ethnic groups, mainly because of social conservatism (ie. abortion, gay marriage, etc) but will have a very hard time actually winning there because of free trade and union issues. As a result, a lot of the more working class areas vote more lopsidedly in favor of the Democrats on the local level than the presidential level.

Also I used to live in Cleveland

Its a shame what happened to the so-called "Rust Belt". Those cities have by far the coolest skylines, and are in my opinion the most beautiful cities in America. I like "old" cities. Unfortunately, even with 5 decades of decline brought by unionism, they still seem not to learn. Whilst Whites down South have long shifted to the GOP, many ethnic Whites up there seem to be very stubborn going Republican. I'd say even the old southern Whites were not that stubborn leaving the Dems.

Think about it from the perspective of the workers. Many of them were employed on a line somewhere in a manufacturing plant doing the same job every day for years and years and thanks to the union, were able to live a reasonably comfortable 1950s style middle class lifestyle to raise their children. Then from 1960-1990, globalization slowly became a reality in a ton of industries, and they suddenly had to be able to compete with poorer countries around the world. Plants shuttered, industries collapsed, cities fell apart, and many of the workers hadn't accrued the necessary skills in their old assembly line jobs to compete in the information age. The unions, for all their ills, at least represented the worker's interests in some capacity, while no one else in the system did whatsoever. The unions were part of the problem in many ways, as they often bargained for unsustainable pensions and often took layoffs rather than paycuts (it's arguable depending on the circumstance which would be a better choice). But the mentality here of the unions as the enemy is a huge part of the reason why the white ethnic rust belt Democrats haven't become Republicans. Most people know the unions are flawed in many ways, but to so many workers, the unions, whatever they are, aren't the enemy. There are a lot of pro-life retired autoworkers in northern Ohio who vote straight-ticket Democrat every time. Why? Abortion doesn't affect them personally, the chances of their pension getting sliced does.

Now, the Democrats haven't shown lately any particular tendency to care much about the demographic I'm outlining here either. Eventually that will come back to bite them, and eventually the old union manufacturing types will die out. The question then becomes where their children end up adopting their parents' religious/moral beliefs or their partisan identification. It's not really a dichotomy either, people fall along a spectrum in between. It isn't a matter of making a play for them or not, like this forum often tends to think. The unions aren't nearly as important as they once were, which almost certainly benefits the Republicans. But the voter demographic I've been discussion here still isn't going to suddenly view the Republicans as acting on their behalf either. If anything, they'd be very unenthusiastic Republican voters.

[Heimdal]

The obvious answer is of course Virginia and North Carolina. We already know that the Democrats are able to win those states.

In the near future they may also be able to win Georgia. If the Democrats are able to pick away Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia there is absolutely no chance of the Republicans winning the election. The GOP needs to realize that Virginia might not return to the fold, and that Georgia might not be as solidly red as it is today.

They need to develop policies to appeal to new voters in these states, both highly educated transplants from the Northeast and Hispanics (I don’t think they can compete for the Black vote anytime soon).  The good news is that this will not just help them in Virginia. It may also help them in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

[Skill and Chance]

Cleveland is still the Democratic stronghold of Ohio and will almost certainly remain so for a long time, but it's not because of an influx of liberal gentry, it's heavily Democratic because it has a very large blue collar industrial population and a large black population. It's a union vote Democratic area. It's slowly shrinking in population and the west side will probably have a Pittsburgh-like phenomenon in 30 years or so, but it has more liberal eastern suburbs and a larger black population than Pittsburgh so I can't see it trending quite as hard.

Cleveland's history is that of immigrant waves coming and settling in little ethnic neighborhoods built around a church or two nearby a factory. During the 60s and 70s, the combination of shuttered industry and racial tensions started the suburbanization process and caused people to begin fleeing the metro area. It was managed much better than Detroit and the city itself actually has a budget surplus and can function as a government, but much of the city is still a shadow of its former self. The Republicans have made inroads in the white ethnic groups, mainly because of social conservatism (ie. abortion, gay marriage, etc) but will have a very hard time actually winning there because of free trade and union issues. As a result, a lot of the more working class areas vote more lopsidedly in favor of the Democrats on the local level than the presidential level.

Also I used to live in Cleveland

Its a shame what happened to the so-called "Rust Belt". Those cities have by far the coolest skylines, and are in my opinion the most beautiful cities in America. I like "old" cities. Unfortunately, even with 5 decades of decline brought by unionism, they still seem not to learn. Whilst Whites down South have long shifted to the GOP, many ethnic Whites up there seem to be very stubborn going Republican. I'd say even the old southern Whites were not that stubborn leaving the Dems.

Think about it from the perspective of the workers. Many of them were employed on a line somewhere in a manufacturing plant doing the same job every day for years and years and thanks to the union, were able to live a reasonably comfortable 1950s style middle class lifestyle to raise their children. Then from 1960-1990, globalization slowly became a reality in a ton of industries, and they suddenly had to be able to compete with poorer countries around the world. Plants shuttered, industries collapsed, cities fell apart, and many of the workers hadn't accrued the necessary skills in their old assembly line jobs to compete in the information age. The unions, for all their ills, at least represented the worker's interests in some capacity, while no one else in the system did whatsoever. The unions were part of the problem in many ways, as they often bargained for unsustainable pensions and often took layoffs rather than paycuts (it's arguable depending on the circumstance which would be a better choice). But the mentality here of the unions as the enemy is a huge part of the reason why the white ethnic rust belt Democrats haven't become Republicans. Most people know the unions are flawed in many ways, but to so many workers, the unions, whatever they are, aren't the enemy. There are a lot of pro-life retired autoworkers in northern Ohio who vote straight-ticket Democrat every time. Why? Abortion doesn't affect them personally, the chances of their pension getting sliced does.

Now, the Democrats haven't shown lately any particular tendency to care much about the demographic I'm outlining here either. Eventually that will come back to bite them, and eventually the old union manufacturing types will die out. The question then becomes where their children end up adopting their parents' religious/moral beliefs or their partisan identification. It's not really a dichotomy either, people fall along a spectrum in between. It isn't a matter of making a play for them or not, like this forum often tends to think. The unions aren't nearly as important as they once were, which almost certainly benefits the Republicans. But the voter demographic I've been discussion here still isn't going to suddenly view the Republicans as acting on their behalf either. If anything, they'd be very unenthusiastic Republican voters.

Well, I'm not totally sure about that.  Union voters in urban OH/MI/WI did seem legitimately grateful for Obama's leadership on the auto bailout (although from a purely economic perspective it probably wasn't in the country's best long term interest).  I think the financial crisis and Obama's overall positive handling of the response will keep a lot of union households voting Dem for another generation.  As long as Obama stays out of Bush territory, the next generation will more evenly divided which isn't enough to counteract the New Deal level of Dem voting among people who came of age under Bush.  The Midwest could swing as a block the next time the economy crashes, but not until then.  I would favor outreach to the Bush-Obama states if the economy is still "eh, ok" where there is opportunity at the margins just by reaching out on 1-2 important cultural issues.  This could also pull Florida back to the right, which needs to be a top short-term goal.

[illegaloperation]

The obvious answer is of course Virginia and North Carolina. We already know that the Democrats are able to win those states.

In the near future they may also be able to win Georgia. If the Democrats are able to pick away Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia there is absolutely no chance of the Republicans winning the election. The GOP needs to realize that Virginia might not return to the fold, and that Georgia might not be as solidly red as it is today.

They need to develop policies to appeal to new voters in these states, both highly educated transplants from the Northeast and Hispanics (I don’t think they can compete for the Black vote anytime soon).  The good news is that this will not just help them in Virginia. It may also help them in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Are you kidding me?

After the Republicans took over the North Carolina state government for the first time in 130 years, the Republicans are swinging the state as far right as possible.

Don't like it? Well, too bad since they have supermajority thanks to redistricting.

And don't let me even get to race-baiting in Georgia. (I am not African American, but even I think it is outrageous.)

[Heimdal]

The obvious answer is of course Virginia and North Carolina. We already know that the Democrats are able to win those states.

In the near future they may also be able to win Georgia. If the Democrats are able to pick away Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia there is absolutely no chance of the Republicans winning the election. The GOP needs to realize that Virginia might not return to the fold, and that Georgia might not be as solidly red as it is today.

They need to develop policies to appeal to new voters in these states, both highly educated transplants from the Northeast and Hispanics (I don’t think they can compete for the Black vote anytime soon).  The good news is that this will not just help them in Virginia. It may also help them in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Are you kidding me?

After the Republicans took over the North Carolina state government for the first time in 130 years, the Republicans are swinging the state as far right as possible.

Don't like it? Well, too bad since they have supermajority thanks to redistricting.

And don't let me even get to race-baiting in Georgia. (I am not African American, but even I think it is outrageous.)

Exactly where did I suggest that the NC legislature is a model for what the GOP needs to do?
Obviously they are able to do pretty much whatever they want in states like Georgia and North Carolina, but moving as far to the right as possible might not be the best way to sustain a majority in the long term.

That is why I said that they need to develop policies to appeal to voters that currently distrusts or dislikes the Republicans. That will enable them to hold on to states like Georgia and North Carolina, and compete with the Democrats in the atlas red states.

At this point they are not doing enough to reach out to any new voting groups. It appears that they assume that a lot of socially liberal whites will return to the fold when they realize that the GOP wants to cut their taxes, and that the Hispanics will return when they realize that they are “natural Republicans”, who dislike gay marriage and abortion. This is the sort of complacency that will cost them dearly.

[⛄]

Even though this poll is already nine years old, the answers are still correct...

[Heimdal]

Even though this poll is already nine years old, the answers are still correct...

Except for Arkansas. Georgia is probably a lot more dangerous for the GOP.

[Skill and Chance]

Even though this poll is already nine years old, the answers are still correct...

Except for Arkansas. Georgia is probably a lot more dangerous for the GOP.

I might actually be more worried about Georgia than North Carolina right now:

1. There are still significant Blue Dog rural Democrat pockets in NC that haven't switched sides yet- enough to control multiple CDs under the old Dem gerrymander.  This will give Republicans a buffer against more Northern transplants moving in.  In GA, white voters outside of Atlanta are already near unanimous R as of 2012 and any Dem gains in Atlanta metro will translate statewide.

2.  The demographics are changing significantly faster in GA than NC.

3.  A future Dem governor in GA would be able to veto 2021 redistricting, unlike in NC.

[illegaloperation]

Even though this poll is already nine years old, the answers are still correct...

Except for Arkansas. Georgia is probably a lot more dangerous for the GOP.

I might actually be more worried about Georgia than North Carolina right now:

1. There are still significant Blue Dog rural Democrat pockets in NC that haven't switched sides yet- enough to control multiple CDs under the old Dem gerrymander.  This will give Republicans a buffer against more Northern transplants moving in.  In GA, white voters outside of Atlanta are already near unanimous R as of 2012 and any Dem gains in Atlanta metro will translate statewide.

2.  The demographics are changing significantly faster in GA than NC.

3.  A future Dem governor in GA would be able to veto 2021 redistricting, unlike in NC.

There is a myth that Democrats have a lot of room to collapse in western NC because it doesn't vote as Republican as eastern TN or western VA.

Unlike eastern TN or western VA, western NC doesn't have large scale coal mining. As result, the floor for a Democrat is higher.

Did I also mention Ashville is in western NC?

[Sol]

The blue dog vote in WNC is here to stay, IMO. If it didn't collapse under Obama, I seriously doubt that its gone for good.

And Asheville is growing, but, more importantly, is increasing its D numbers - Buncombe went from voting for Bush in 2004 to being a safe D county today.

[illegaloperation]

The blue dog vote in WNC is here to stay, IMO. If it didn't collapse under Obama, I seriously doubt that its gone for good.

And Asheville is growing, but, more importantly, is increasing its D numbers - Buncombe went from voting for Bush in 2004 to being a safe D county today.

Ditto.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Virginia is more vulnerable for Republicans than Florida (yes, not necessarily a "southern state" anymore, but assuming it still is). Democrats has only one statewide elected officials in FL (Nelson), and legislature is, partially due to gerrymandering, a total lock for the GOP. VA, meanwhile, is competitive at all levels and in addition to voting for Obama twice, it has a Democratic Governor and 2 Senators.

[Adam Griffin]

GA over the past four elections (non-Atlas colors) - with swings between each election annually averaged by county. It helps to understand pop distribution to appreciate it, but the metro is moving fast. Don't let the deepening pockets of red fool you, as those (with the exception of Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall; combined population of ~650k) are mostly relatively unpopulated areas.

Rockdale: 2004 - 60% Bush, 2008 - 54% Obama, 2012 - 58% Obama (36-point swing)
Henry: 2004 - 67% Bush, 2008 - 53% McCain, 2012 - 51% Romney (32-point swing)
Newton: 2004 - 62% Bush, 2008 - 50% Obama, 2012 - 50% Obama (25-point swing)
Gwinnett: 2004 - 66% Bush, 2008 - 55% McCain, 2012 - 54% Romney (24-point swing)
Douglas: 2004 - 61% Bush, 2008 - 50% Obama, 2012 - 51% Obama (20-point swing)
Cobb: 2004 - 62% Bush, 2008 - 54% McCain, 2012 - 55% Romney (14-point swing)

These suburban counties combined are home to around 2 million people.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

No one is claiming that Virginia is Lean R, myself included. It was Lean D this election, albeit by 0.01%.
It's just that I think Virginia will move left more slowly and gradually become a true Lean D on par with Minnesota and Nevada, while you seem to think it it is on the verge of becoming or already is one.

Answering the question, obviously Virginia. After that will follow North Carolina, and a couple years down the line Georgia.

[Heimdal]

This thread didn't even need to be bumped... many "intelligent" conservative posters still to this day claim Virginia is a lean Republican state.  The state of denial is apparently a Republican state as well.

Shouldn’t you be off somewhere making a thread about how Virginia is the new Vermont or something?