Most vulnerable Southern state for Republicans

[tarheel-leftist85]

We'll consider Oklahoma a plains state, and Florida is no longer a Southern state.

[Adam Griffin]

There are several. Probably the most vulnerable is Virginia, followed by a tie for second between Louisiana and Arkansas. The Republican Party takes Georgia seriously for granted, and Tennessee should be nudged out of the red-state status with some serious work.

[Smash255]

There are several. Probably the most vulnerable is Virginia, followed by a tie for second between Louisiana and Arkansas. The Republican Party takes Georgia seriously for granted, and Tennessee should be nudged out of the red-state status with some serious work.

I would put Arkansas ahead of Louisana not tied, agree with Virginia though.  Most of the states in the south have moved in the GOP direction & VA while slowly is moving more towards the Dems & its a trend that probably will continue as NOVA keeps rowing & moving left.

[jokerman]

The party in it's current state, maybe Virginia, as a populist party, Arkansas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You mean in Presidential elections presumably? In which case it depends on the issues, the candidates, etc. etc. etc.

Wait and See

[WalterMitty]

arkansas, no doubt.

[Gustaf]

I'd say Arkansas, because I suspect that a Southerner, who's not THAT liberal would take Arkansas ina heartbeat. In 5-10 years probably Virginia.

[WalterMitty]

things change.

im not sure i buy into 'trends'

 example: in 1992, clinton took georgia (and nearly won it in 96).  i dont think even a southern democrat would have much of a chance of carrying georgia now.

[minionofmidas]

Arkansas, Virginia, or just possibly West Virginia.

[Speed of Sound]

Virginia

[Ben.]

I think that the good people of West Virginia would quibble over being reefed to as part of “the south”… though if their looking to rejoin the old dominion their more than welcome

At the same time I’d say that while the panhandle and the west of Florida is still very much a part of the south the urban east of the state has shifted it in a direction which means it no longer has so much in common with other southern states as it once did, States isn’t going to like that (!)   

Overall I’d say that the Democrats’ local strength of support and organisation in Arkansas makes it the Southern state most likely to shift into the Democratic column. After Arkansas perhaps Louisiana which also has a strong Democratic state-wide organisation and then potentially Virginia which offers a solid base for the Democrats but would have to be won by appealing to rural voters, something Kerry simply couldn’t do in 2004.     

[jokerman]

Nothing will destroy the local Democratic support in Arkansas soon.  Absolutely Nothing.  The only thing that can defeat it is time itself.  A generation or so more of national democrat acting like they do and there won't be the large contingent of populist or conservative democrats.  They will have moved to the Republicans.

[nclib]

West Virginia - with a populist Democrat.

[Frodo]

Increasingly Virginia -Arkansas and West Virginia may well be strongly Democratic at the state and local level, but that is largely due to the fact that the core of Democratic strength in those states is because of the New Deal generation -they are relics.  In perhaps a decade, I expect Republicans to gain strength in those states much as they have done throughout the South for the past forty years.

Virginia (and perhaps North Carolina) are a different story -Democratic strength in those states is due in part to the ability of statewide Democrats to appeal to rural voters, but it is also due to the maturation of inner suburbs. 

Republican strength is largely credited to the explosion of suburbia throughout the South, and has proved the core of their political might -however, as those suburbs mature and become more urban and cosmopolitan in character, they also become more moderate and Democratic.  It will take decades for this process to filter down throughout the South, but it is the one hope that Democrats can cling to as they watch Republicans solidify their dominance over most southern states -it will be their salvation and main reason for any future Southern Democratic resurgence.

[MissCatholic]

Arkansas just needs organisation to be back in the democratic column.

Virginia will be very hard to win comapred to Arkansas. Its easier to vote for a party that you have voted for than voting for a party that you havent.

Arkansas has two very good senators who get re-elected and have had a governor made President so the votes have a soft spot for democrats.

Just needs some money and organisation particularly in NW arkansas.

[??????????]

Where is Florida on this list?

[H. Ross Peron]

Lol at Arkansas and West Virginia.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia out of those.  lol at those who are saying Arkansas and West Virginia.

[TDAS04]

Virginia.

[Supersonic]

I almost had a seizure when I saw the poll results...

... then I checked the posting year.

[ElectionsGuy]

I almost had a seizure when I saw the poll results...

... then I checked the posting year.

Oh! I didn't notice. Well that kind of explains something.

[IceSpear]

I almost had a seizure when I saw the poll results...

... then I checked the posting year.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I was seriously like what the hell.  Who in their right mind would think Virginia is less likely to go Democratic than Arkansas.  Wow.  A lot of things change in 9 years. 

[stevekamp]

Virginia.  It's the only old CSA state where Obama 2012 overperformed his national 51.01 national % -- by 0.07 (seven one hundredths of a percentage point).  In Florida he only won by a plurality and underperformed national'; but for the 69,000 Dem. gain in Miami-Dade over 2008 (second largest margin gain in US, after Romney flip of Salt Lake), Florida 2012 would have been like Florida 2000 (but unlike 2000, irrelevant to the national EC outcome).

If Dems win Virginia in 2016 and 20120, the Kerry 246 + Virginia 13 = 259, meaning New Mexico (5) plus Nevada (6) = 270 regardless of Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Colorado.

Florida at 29 EV is a must win state for Rs in 2016, 2020, but for Dems it is a checkmate state -- Kerry 246 + 29 = 275, meaning could lose NH and still win.

This is why Rs want to "reform the EC." As to why blue states are passing the National Popular Vote interstate compact (brilliant idea by the scratch off lottery ticket inventor), it's because it's the right thing to do...

[JRP1994]

Virginia is the only objectively correct answer.