Most vulnerable Southern state for Republicans

[Frodo]

Increasingly Virginia -Arkansas and West Virginia may well be strongly Democratic at the state and local level, but that is largely due to the fact that the core of Democratic strength in those states is because of the New Deal generation -they are relics.  In perhaps a decade, I expect Republicans to gain strength in those states much as they have done throughout the South for the past forty years.

Virginia (and perhaps North Carolina) are a different story -Democratic strength in those states is due in part to the ability of statewide Democrats to appeal to rural voters, but it is also due to the maturation of inner suburbs. 

Republican strength is largely credited to the explosion of suburbia throughout the South, and has proved the core of their political might -however, as those suburbs mature and become more urban and cosmopolitan in character, they also become more moderate and Democratic.  It will take decades for this process to filter down throughout the South, but it is the one hope that Democrats can cling to as they watch Republicans solidify their dominance over most southern states -it will be their salvation and main reason for any future Southern Democratic resurgence.

I forgot I ever made this post... 

[IceSpear]

Increasingly Virginia -Arkansas and West Virginia may well be strongly Democratic at the state and local level, but that is largely due to the fact that the core of Democratic strength in those states is because of the New Deal generation -they are relics.  In perhaps a decade, I expect Republicans to gain strength in those states much as they have done throughout the South for the past forty years.

Virginia (and perhaps North Carolina) are a different story -Democratic strength in those states is due in part to the ability of statewide Democrats to appeal to rural voters, but it is also due to the maturation of inner suburbs. 

Republican strength is largely credited to the explosion of suburbia throughout the South, and has proved the core of their political might -however, as those suburbs mature and become more urban and cosmopolitan in character, they also become more moderate and Democratic.  It will take decades for this process to filter down throughout the South, but it is the one hope that Democrats can cling to as they watch Republicans solidify their dominance over most southern states -it will be their salvation and main reason for any future Southern Democratic resurgence.

I forgot I ever made this post... 

You get bragging rights for being so prescient, unlike many of the other posts.

[NerdyBohemian]

Nothing will destroy the local Democratic support in Arkansas soon.  Absolutely Nothing.  The only thing that can defeat it is time itself.  A generation or so more of national democrat acting like they do and there won't be the large contingent of populist or conservative democrats.  They will have moved to the Republicans.

lol

Except Barack Hussein Obama.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Just goes to show you that as recently as 2004, multiple Southern states were thought of as being just as Democrat as they were Republican.  But Southern Strategy!!

[Adam Griffin]

I almost had a seizure when I saw the poll results...

... then I checked the posting year.

Virginia is the only objectively correct answer.

If you mean within the timeframe of when this question was first asked. Otherwise, Virginia is now the most vulnerable Southern state for Democrats.

Georgia would be the correct answer - if you go by states that have not been wholly dominated by the GOP in presidential elections for some time. Though not relevant here, NC also had a Dem Gov & state legislature through 2012 and has a Dem Senator, but obviously Republicans have made recent inward roads. The trends, however, point in a different direction at both the state level and for President, so it's one of those states that's truly "vulnerable" for both parties.

Just goes to show you that as recently as 2004, multiple Southern states were thought of as being just as Democrat as they were Republican.  But Southern Strategy!!

As I alluded to above, this discussion should technically be about presidential election trends and not local ones. In 2004, there really weren't any states in the South that could have been thought of as being just as Democratic as they could Republican in that regard. Removing TN in 2000 due to the home state advantage (which Gore still lost by almost 4 points) and FL because it's really not Southern, the closest two states were as big or bigger losses for Gore than Georgia was for Obama in 2008. People thought then that Georgia might be getting closer to becoming a swing state, but nobody would have said the two parties were on par.


Also, heh...

There are several. Probably the most vulnerable is Virginia, followed by a tie for second between Louisiana and Arkansas. The Republican Party takes Georgia seriously for granted, and Tennessee should be nudged out of the red-state status with some serious work.

[MATTROSE94]

Easily Virginia and closely followed by North Carolina and Georgia. I can see Virginia becoming a likely Democratic state in the future and North Carolina and Georgia eventually becoming lean Democratic states. The other Southern states are almost 100% assured to go Republican by a landslide margin even if a far-right candidate like Ted Cruz, Mike Pence or Rick Santorum gets the Republican nomination.

[Smash255]

I somehow went blind and didn't see Virginia so I voted North Carolina.

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

In the words of the immortal Tim Russert: Florida, Florida, Florida.

Unless you're talking about House/statewide/local elections, in which case, it would be Virginia (with Florida and North Carolina close behind.)

[Smash255]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

[Smash255]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

Middle class is correct, but its more complex than that.  Keep in mind the transplant population is diverse.  The Asian and Hispanic populations have increased.  Also the white transplant vote, while in some cases still GOP leaning (certainly not all) is considerably less Republican than previously there.

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

Middle class is correct, but its more complex than that.  Keep in mind the transplant population is diverse.  The Asian and Hispanic populations have increased.  Also the white transplant vote, while in some cases still GOP leaning (certainly not all) is considerably less Republican than previously there.

So, its perhaps part of the same tendency which turned Northern NJ, Northern VA, and suburban counties as a whole from staunchly Republican to Democratic leaning over the last 2 decades?

[Smash255]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

Middle class is correct, but its more complex than that.  Keep in mind the transplant population is diverse.  The Asian and Hispanic populations have increased.  Also the white transplant vote, while in some cases still GOP leaning (certainly not all) is considerably less Republican than previously there.

So, its perhaps part of the same tendency which turned Northern NJ, Northern VA, and suburban counties as a whole from staunchly Republican to Democratic leaning over the last 2 decades?

Yes, it is very similar to what has been going on there, especially VA.  NC has a longer distance to travel to get to that point, but it is very similar.

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

Middle class is correct, but its more complex than that.  Keep in mind the transplant population is diverse.  The Asian and Hispanic populations have increased.  Also the white transplant vote, while in some cases still GOP leaning (certainly not all) is considerably less Republican than previously there.

So, its perhaps part of the same tendency which turned Northern NJ, Northern VA, and suburban counties as a whole from staunchly Republican to Democratic leaning over the last 2 decades?

Yes, it is very similar to what has been going on there, especially VA.  NC has a longer distance to travel to get to that point, but it is very similar.

I see it. I just thought that this phenomenom was restricted to the Northeast-Great Lakes-West Coast major metros. Didn't imagine it already had made inroads further south, even if actually just a few exclaves.

Might it hit Atlanta, Dallas, Houston in the near future? Maybe even Phoenix?

[TJ in Oregon]

Oh it is definitely affecting the south, including Atlanta and Houston already. The Dallas and Phoenix metro areas are still soo staunchly Republican they aren't about to change any time soon. Both have diverse, liberal enclaves, but they're only a tiny fraction of the population. You also don't notice it as much in the south as a lot of places because the states aren't swing states for the most part (except VA, NC as noted).

One other note on your post, the area of the county least affected by the rise of the liberal gentry is the Great Lakes states. Most of the rust belt has bleeding people forever and hasn't attracted the types of upscale voters that have turned VA atlas red. This is one of the reasons why some of political predictor types like to anticipate the Great Lakes States trending toward the Republicans. That reasoning is true at the moment, but only because of the definition of "trending", ie. the rest of the country is rapidly moving toward the Democrats but the Great Lakes States haven't moved any direction at all, so compared to the average have trended Republican.

[Tieteobserver]

Oh it is definitely affecting the south, including Atlanta and Houston already. The Dallas and Phoenix metro areas are still soo staunchly Republican they aren't about to change any time soon. Both have diverse, liberal enclaves, but they're only a tiny fraction of the population. You also don't notice it as much in the south as a lot of places because the states aren't swing states for the most part (except VA, NC as noted).

One other note on your post, the area of the county least affected by the rise of the liberal gentry is the Great Lakes states. Most of the rust belt has bleeding people forever and hasn't attracted the types of upscale voters that have turned VA atlas red. This is one of the reasons why some of political predictor types like to anticipate the Great Lakes States trending toward the Republicans. That reasoning is true at the moment, but only because of the definition of "trending", ie. the rest of the country is rapidly moving toward the Democrats but the Great Lakes States haven't moved any direction at all, so compared to the average have trended Republican.

Yeah, in fact I've noticed that as of lately, Pitts area, which seems much more immersed in the Great Lakes than in the Northeast (to which PA belongs) has been trending Republican, a reverse pattern from Philly.

Didn't read any about this, though, regarding other Rust Beltic metros, except maybe for Buffalo. Cleveland seems to be still the most reliably Democratic stronghold in OH. Same goes for Detroit I guess.

One interesting case though is that of Minneapolis. Though MN is that famous state which voted twice against Reagan, it seems to be trending Republican, or at least staying stable, over those last years. And differently from the Rust Belt states, MN is actually thriving.

[TJ in Oregon]

Cleveland is still the Democratic stronghold of Ohio and will almost certainly remain so for a long time, but it's not because of an influx of liberal gentry, it's heavily Democratic because it has a very large blue collar industrial population and a large black population. It's a union vote Democratic area. It's slowly shrinking in population and the west side will probably have a Pittsburgh-like phenomenon in 30 years or so, but it has more liberal eastern suburbs and a larger black population than Pittsburgh so I can't see it trending quite as hard.

Cleveland's history is that of immigrant waves coming and settling in little ethnic neighborhoods built around a church or two nearby a factory. During the 60s and 70s, the combination of shuttered industry and racial tensions started the suburbanization process and caused people to begin fleeing the metro area. It was managed much better than Detroit and the city itself actually has a budget surplus and can function as a government, but much of the city is still a shadow of its former self. The Republicans have made inroads in the white ethnic groups, mainly because of social conservatism (ie. abortion, gay marriage, etc) but will have a very hard time actually winning there because of free trade and union issues. As a result, a lot of the more working class areas vote more lopsidedly in favor of the Democrats on the local level than the presidential level.

Also I used to live in Cleveland

[TJ in Oregon]

One interesting case though is that of Minneapolis. Though MN is that famous state which voted twice against Reagan, it seems to be trending Republican, or at least staying stable, over those last years. And differently from the Rust Belt states, MN is actually thriving.

I'm generally of the opinion that Minnesota would be one of the very last Midwestern non-Illinois states for the Republicans to win. It and Ohio were the only two Midwestern states to trend toward Obama in 2012. Minnesota does have a staunchly conservative exurban base and German Catholic base, the Republican party doesn't seem to be making any inroads into the Democratic strongholds up north or in the Twin Cities.

The MN state GOP is a also total mess. Perhaps being a Republican living in Wisconsin I'm a bit biased, but I have a hard time watching the state Republican Parties in Wisconsin and Minnesota and seeing them win Minnesota and not Wisconsin. The Wisconsin GOP is able to win on off years somewhat consistently and has people viewed as national caliber figures from Wisconsin such as Reince Preibus, Scott Walker, and Paul Ryan, who can actually get people to vote for them, while Minnesota has, err, Michelle Bachmann. I agree there's some potential still in Minnesota and that there's a Republican base as well in Minnesota that will make the elections look somewhat close, but it's hard to see the Republicans getting over the hump in Minnesota.

I think our better opportunities are PA, IA, and WI.

[Skill and Chance]

Oh it is definitely affecting the south, including Atlanta and Houston already. The Dallas and Phoenix metro areas are still soo staunchly Republican they aren't about to change any time soon. Both have diverse, liberal enclaves, but they're only a tiny fraction of the population. You also don't notice it as much in the south as a lot of places because the states aren't swing states for the most part (except VA, NC as noted).

Well, Dallas has a Great Plains component and the Plains are if anything shifting a bit R right now.  GA might accelerate past NC in the next couple of elections with the changes in the electorate there.  I'd also expect the Mountain West to sour on Democrats in a trend sense the longer they remain in power.

[illegaloperation]

I was going to say a few things, but Lt. Governor TJ seems to have already covered them.

And yes, the same forces that is reshaping Virginia is also reshaping North Carolina.

[Adam Griffin]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

It really depends on where these NE transplants are moving. In Georgia, for instance, the Yankees that you see piling up in the mountains and rural parts of NE Georgia are perhaps even more Republican than their Appalachian neighbors, and yes, they're moving there for the reasons you mentioned. Closer to the metro and throughout most of the rest of the state, they tend to be more liberal than the native folk.

And as far as Texas goes: it's fool's gold for the time being. The TXGOP did an excellent job at incorporating Latinos into their party as early as the 1960s, and exit polling continues to show that Republicans there do anywhere from 10-15 points better among Latinos than Republicans do with Latinos in other states. The Latino population of Texas is also better-established, and in many cases, they don't consider themselves "immigrants" anymore. A lot of these folk would classify themselves as "white" by American standards, since they've been Americans for three, four, five or more generations. Then of course, it has to be considered that a decent chunk of the newer, true immigrant populations can't vote because of citizenship status (based on what I've seen from Census data in other parts of the country, I'd say anywhere from 40-55% of first-generation Latinos there are undocumented).

[pbrower2a]

Virginia is the only objectively correct answer.

Like Florida, Virginia is no longer a Southern State. It is becoming Michigan without the industrial rot. It is a disaster for the GOP because of its cosmopolitanism and large African-American population.

For "no longer being Southern" (it was the only former-Confederate state that did not vote for Carter in 1976) it is more like Michigan than any Southern state. I disqualify Virginia even though it is otherwise the "right" answer.

That leaves North Carolina, which did vote for Carter in 1976 with Carter running a a "Good Ole Boy" but did not vote for Bill Clinton. 

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina is particularly interesting: it's the only state where the governor cannot veto redistricting.

After 2010, Republicans have gerrymandered themselves in and are almost impossible to remove. As a result, they will keep moving to the right undaunted by the shift of the state.

Of cause, the state as a whole is moving aggressively to the left thanks to the people who are move there from the northeast (and other places) for STEM.

In the future, North Carolina is going to have very liberal governor and other statewide office holders (and vote for Democratic presidents), but extremely conservative statehouses.

Democrats are going to have hard time making inroad to the statehouses and congressional districts because the gerrymandered districts are very conservative.

Meanwhile, Republicans are going to have hard time with winning statewide since their state and congressional districts are extremely conservative while the state as a whole is liberal.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The idea that a Democratic ticket could win NC any time patently ridiculous. Even with a home state advantage, the 2004 Democratic ticket lost it by over 12 points

BTW, I just woke up from an 8 year nap.