What if the presidential election were redone?

[AGA]

What if voters got another chance to vote in the 2016 election? Would Trump win by an even larger electoral margin because of what he has done to fulfill his promises, or would Clinton win because of the backlash against the travel ban? Feel free to post maps.

[Pericles]

Generally the candidate who was getting the most attention was doing the worst. When the focus was on Clinton her poll numbers fell and when it was on Trump his poll numbers fell. Given how close the election was and how volatile the race was with lots of undecideds Clinton would likely prevail.

[RFayette]

Generally the candidate who was getting the most attention was doing the worst. When the focus was on Clinton her poll numbers fell and when it was on Trump his poll numbers fell. Given how close the election was and how volatile the race was with lots of undecideds Clinton would likely prevail.

This.  Clinton would likely win based on "buyer's remorse" amongst a segment of Trump voters.  By a similar vein, I would bet that if there were a Romney-Obama rematch during the healthcare.gov rollout fiasco in late 2013, we would've seen a similar reversal of outcome. 

[Mr. Smith]

Clinton gets 50% and then some. A good chunk of swing Trump voters probably voted for him specifically because they didn't think he'd actually do most of those promises in any way, while still giving them the deregulation and tax cuts.

She was pretty much a week from taking over the Sun Belt anyway.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump would win New Hampshire, but likely no other state.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Trump would win New Hampshire, but likely no other state.

Maybe Minnesota too

[impactreps]

There were probably a significant number of Trump voters who cast a protest vote for him, not expecting him to win. I'm not sure there were enough of them in the right places to reverse his victory. I also don't see enough of Trump's supporters, considering their views, to decide to switch to Hillary because of Trump's first couple weeks in office.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump would win New Hampshire, but likely no other state.

Maybe Minnesota too

-Unlikely, since fewer Berniebros would have stayed home had they known the GOP would take the MN Senate.

[cwt]

If everyone voted the same way as they did the first time, but all the Stein voters voted for Clinton, she would win.

The Johnson voters would probably also switch to one of the top two candidates and that would be harder to predict. I think Clinton would get the edge, though.

[Figueira]

Depends. If we're talking about a realistic recall election, I bet Trump wins because "Give him a chance!!!" However, if you send everyone back in time to vote again, I think Clinton wins.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think that the group of folks that voted for Trump who had voted Democratic in recent elections in MI, WI, and PA are the most satisfied with Trump. 

It is possible that if you had a "runoff" with a straight binary choice and no 3rd party candidates, Hillary MIGHT win that.  It is also possible that if you re-ran the election as it was, Hillary MIGHT have gained some Stein and Johnson votes (particularly Johnson votes) that would have made a difference.  It's also likely, however, that a number of Republicans who voted for Johnson or McMullin would switch to Trump, having seen the results and concluding that Hillary would be more liberal and worse. 

Trump has governed in a manner sufficiently conservative enough to get a "vote of confidence" from the vast majority of conservative voters who voted for someone else.

[The_Doctor]

Trump would win. It's not really likely there's buyer's remorse this early. And I am of the school that thinks that at this point, the electorate wanted a Republican White House after eight years of Obama and Trump would still do well in the Midwest, enough to win the electoral college.

[pbrower2a]

At least a 3% shift, Hillary Clinton picking up Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina -- possibly Arizona as well.  Add to this -- Democrats win Senate seats in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Missouri.

The Trump dictatorship is foiled.

[JustinTimeCuber]

At least a 3% shift, Hillary Clinton picking up Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina -- possibly Arizona as well.  Add to this -- Democrats win Senate seats in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Missouri.

The Trump dictatorship is foiled.

Democrats pick up 3 Senate seats. Jason Kander pulls off an upset and takes Roy's seat, twice.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If you ushered me into a voting booth today, I would hold my nose for Hillary. If there was a four month recall campaign beforehand (assuming candidate ballot access was identical to what it was in November), I'm not sure what I would end up doing.

[Pericles]

A new poll shows she would win 49-45.

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 307 EV 49.03%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 231 EV 44.94%

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

A new poll shows she would win 49-45.

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 307 EV 49.03%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 231 EV 44.94%

-The mainstream polls all showed Her up four over Trump on election day.

[RaphaelDLG]

An interesting question might be:  What other (past) Presidents would get fewer EVs if the election was redone in their 3mo Jan-Mar honeymoon period than in the first Nov election?  None?

[DPKdebator]

Trump improves slightly, flips anywhere with a 2% margin or less. Not a major change, but gets a mild boost in EV count (probably still loses PV though).

[Inmate Trump]

Clinton: 277
Trump: 261

[Virginiá]

-The mainstream polls all showed Her up four over Trump on election day.

What exactly is your point though?

She won by a smidgen over 2%, which would be within the MoE for pretty much any national poll showing 4%. The topic's question was presumably for factoring in any buyer's remorse.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

-The mainstream polls all showed Her up four over Trump on election day.

What exactly is your point though?

She won by a smidgen over 2%, which would be within the MoE for pretty much any national poll showing 4%. The topic's question was presumably for factoring in any buyer's remorse.

-I suspect buyer's remorse on both sides is almost exactly equal, so Trump would win by the same margin if the election was redone (with maybe a New Hampshire win).

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

-The mainstream polls all showed Her up four over Trump on election day.

What exactly is your point though?

She won by a smidgen over 2%, which would be within the MoE for pretty much any national poll showing 4%. The topic's question was presumably for factoring in any buyer's remorse.

-I suspect buyer's remorse on both sides is almost exactly equal, so Trump would win by the same margin if the election was redone (with maybe a New Hampshire win).

You can't have buyers remorse for something you didn't buy.

-There were lots of people voting for HRC expecting something much worse under DJT than what has actually happened.

[America Needs R'hllor]

-The mainstream polls all showed Her up four over Trump on election day.

What exactly is your point though?

She won by a smidgen over 2%, which would be within the MoE for pretty much any national poll showing 4%. The topic's question was presumably for factoring in any buyer's remorse.

-I suspect buyer's remorse on both sides is almost exactly equal, so Trump would win by the same margin if the election was redone (with maybe a New Hampshire win).

You can't have buyers remorse for something you didn't buy.

-There were lots of people voting for HRC expecting something much worse under DJT than what has actually happened.

Yeah... No. What has happened under Trump is much worse than most people thought would happen.

[Inmate Trump]

-The mainstream polls all showed Her up four over Trump on election day.

What exactly is your point though?

She won by a smidgen over 2%, which would be within the MoE for pretty much any national poll showing 4%. The topic's question was presumably for factoring in any buyer's remorse.

-I suspect buyer's remorse on both sides is almost exactly equal, so Trump would win by the same margin if the election was redone (with maybe a New Hampshire win).

You can't have buyers remorse for something you didn't buy.

-There were lots of people voting for HRC expecting something much worse under DJT than what has actually happened.

If anything, more people would vote against Trump if they had the chance. I can't tell you how many Trump voters I know who, before the election, said he wouldn't actually do all the bad stuff he was campaigning around.