GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Suburbia]

The seat held by Georgia Rep. Tom Price, a conservative Republican, who is likely to be confirmed as the next Health and Human Services Secretary under President Trump. His seat will likely set a special election, for later this year. Can Democrat Jon Ossoff win in this conservative-leaning district?

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/01/05/another-democrat-announces-for-tom-prices-seat-with-some-hefty-advantages/

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/02/03/a-democrat-is-putting-up-big-numbers-in-tom-prices-conservative-turf/

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/444654/2017-special-elections-open-house-seats-worth-watching

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mod edit (6/20/2017):

New thread for election day (runoff): https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=266905.0

[Hindsight was 2020]

No

[windjammer]

Likely not

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Yes, he can.

[Figueira]

God, I sure hope so.

[Heisenberg]

Yes, he can.

Can he? If he plays his cards right, and everything lines up in his favor, yes.
Will he? If Trump is not too unpopular in the district, a Republican makes the top two (doesn't this use a Louisiana-style system?) and doesn't self-destruct, then probably not.

[The Other Castro]

He can, but he probably won't.

[Suburbia]

If Ossoff wins this special election, he'd be a big GOP target in 2018 and 2020. However, if he holds on to this seat, he'd be a Democratic Party rising star. He'd be a future Senate or governor candidate in the 2020s.

[Strudelcutie4427]

He'd need the perfect storm of so many factors to win it. Sure it was close in the president rave but I think the urban republicans will come back since trump hasn't been a sh**tshow

[Tintrlvr]

I wouldn't say it is impossible given that this district is pretty much ground zero for anti-Trump Republicans and actually only voted for Trump 48.3-46.8 over Clinton but seems unlikely given the historical Republican margins (e.g., 60.8-37.5 Romney over Obama). Still, could end up like Gottheimer vs. Garrett (which was similarly narrowly Trump with historically somewhat larger Republican margins, though not nearly as large as GA-06), especially if the Republicans choose the wrong candidate, which I think is a real risk in a jungle primary.

If he does win, I am much more confident in a big Democratic wave in 2018.

[DrScholl]

He sure can.

[smoltchanov]

Unlikely. District is anti-Trump, but still mostly conservative. And Ossoff credentials as Lewis staffer would be great in GA-05, but not so important in GA-06, which acquiesced to Civil Rights long ago, but hardly champions them. If Republicans nominate Roy Moore-type candidate - possible, but, probably, only in this case.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yes, the district is changing. I volunteered to knock on doors there with my university Young Democrats branch and many people were interested with voting for Hillary. They said Donald Trump scared them, was taking us back to a dark time, they had many friends of different backgrounds, and this is from white people. One white man who attended Reagan inauguration said he doesn't recognize this Republican party anymore. Anybody who says this election is Safe R doesn't know district outside of a bunch data and wikipedia pages. 

[heatcharger]

Yes, the district is changing. I volunteered to knock on doors there with my university Young Democrats branch and many people were interested with voting for Hillary. They said Donald Trump scared them, was taking us back to a dark time, they had many friends of different backgrounds, and this is from white people. One white man who attended Reagan inauguration said he doesn't recognize this Republican party anymore. Anybody who says this election is Safe R doesn't know district outside of a bunch data and wikipedia pages. 

Interesting. Do you think Ossoff is the best candidate to win the seat?

[SATW]

Likely R to start off, but this is politics...anything can happen. Hope we hold this seat and keep it R.

[publicunofficial]

I kinda get the feeling the DCCC is punting on the special election, and is saving their time and energy (and money) for the 2018 general instead. We'll see though.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yes, the district is changing. I volunteered to knock on doors there with my university Young Democrats branch and many people were interested with voting for Hillary. They said Donald Trump scared them, was taking us back to a dark time, they had many friends of different backgrounds, and this is from white people. One white man who attended Reagan inauguration said he doesn't recognize this Republican party anymore. Anybody who says this election is Safe R doesn't know district outside of a bunch data and wikipedia pages. 

Interesting. Do you think Ossoff is the best candidate to win the seat?

No, Scott Holcomb he's like Georgia's Jason Kander. After that its either Curt Thompson or Taylor Bennett. I think they wait until 2018 or 2020 if the Dems target GA.

[freepcrusher]

anyone here think he kind of has that numale pajama-boy look to him? I'd vote for him but remember, this is Georgia - not New Jersey.

[Vosem]

I kinda get the feeling the DCCC is punting on the special election, and is saving their time and energy (and money) for the 2018 general instead. We'll see though.

They're clearly not; Ossoff has -- already -- set a record for fastest online fundraising for a congressional candidate, beating Elizabeth Warren's 2012 campaign.

Can he win? This area is very Republican downballot (it was the first part of Georgia to even consider supporting Republicans, back in the mid-1960s, and was already pretty solid for them by the time Reagan came along), but Trump is weak here, and it's demographically consistent with the sort of place where Trump's approvals have probably slid since his inauguration. I think it'll depend on how the Top Two primary shakes out -- I think a D v. D top two is an underrated possibility, that Ossoff might even be favored against a few of the candidates running more Trump-friendly campaigns, and that even against the others Trump can be used as a cudgel. This district is not KS-4; this is a place where the strategy the Democrats want to use could actually work (though we'll see in practice).

I'd still put it as Leans R or so. But Ossoff is definitely in with a shot.

[henster]

I have read up on Holcomb's bio Army vet deployed overseas several state and elected rep in the area. The fact he passed up on this race tells all you know about Ossoff's chances.

[publicunofficial]

I kinda get the feeling the DCCC is punting on the special election, and is saving their time and energy (and money) for the 2018 general instead. We'll see though.

They're clearly not; Ossoff has -- already -- set a record for fastest online fundraising for a congressional candidate, beating Elizabeth Warren's 2012 campaign.

Is that online fundraising coming from the DCCC though? The people I've seen investing in this race are more netroots types than the actual Democratic establishment.

[publicunofficial]

The filing deadline is Wednesday the 14th by the way. Currently the GOP side is ex-Secretary of State, 2014 Senate candidate, and former Susan G. Komen Foundation chairwoman Karen Handel, and businessman Bruce LeVell, former director of the "National Diversity Coalition for Trump".


I'd say a runoff with Handel is Likely R and a runoff with LeVell is a Toss-Up for Ossoff. If this is a district that likes Republicans but hates Trump, then one of Trump's biggest campaign supporters is probably a bad fit.

[SATW]

UGH. Handel.

I have no issue with her as a person or ideologically, but she's vastly under performed in two statewide GOP primaries since 2010. I don't see what she brings to the table besides possibly handing Dems a house seat.

I rather have someone run who actually knows how to run a campaign. Ossoff's candidacy concerns me.

Is it at all possible for St. Sen. Betsy Price (Tom's wife) to run or is she too much of a political novice to do well? 

[henster]

I hate seeing progressives wind themselves up on this race which is a very likely loss. I see Maddow attacking the DCCC for not investing here but seriously the district still voted for Trump and has shown no willingness to elect other Ds. I can already see when Rs win pundits declaring it is sign there is no Trump backlash and 2018 with be a smooth year for the party.

[Virginiá]

I hate seeing progressives wind themselves up on this race which is a very likely loss. I see Maddow attacking the DCCC for not investing here but seriously the district still voted for Trump and has shown no willingness to elect other Ds. I can already see when Rs win pundits declaring it is sign there is no Trump backlash and 2018 with be a smooth year for the party.

Yes. A win here is a real long-shot, imo. Just because traditionally D/R districts like these flip or narrow significantly doesn't mean they will be competitive downballot just yet (or sometimes at all). The changes in voting patterns could very well point to future success, and in this case it fits with existing long-term trends but in all reality even if it was moving towards Democrats on some level, it'll probably be a while before it is viable.

Frankly if Democrats could get this race to a mid-single digit loss I'd be very happy.