GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Figueira]

BREAKING: Ashford Parkside in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 52.4% of 1038 votes cast. Hillary was 57.0%.

According to 538, he needs almost 59% there

Is that 52.4% ED only, or EV+ED?

That Ashford Parkside Ossoff result is ED only. The Hillary result is EV+ED.

In that case, that's pretty good actually.

And yeah, NYT>DDHQ in general, as far as election results go.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm starting to wonder if Ossoff will do better than we all thought or if this is actually just too early for us to be focusing on this.

Both could be true.

[ajc0918]

Not enough Election Day voting to come to any conclusions.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'm starting to wonder if Ossoff will do better than we all thought or if this is actually just too early for us to be focusing on this.

Both could be true.

[TheSaint250]

Not enough Election Day voting to come to any conclusions.

OK.  That's what I was thinking.

[DrScholl]

Hope he loses just to see Dems sh*t themselves.

I hope he wins just so Republicans lose their minds.

We can just take it back in 2018 easily.

Oh, how ominous.

[MAINEiac4434]

Some more DeKalb numbers (ED) just came in. Now:

Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    62.2%   33,302
Karen Handel (Republican)    14.6%   7,812
Dan Moody (Republican)    8.6%   4,603
Bob Gray (Republican)    5.9%   3,172
Judson Hill (Republican)    5.4%   2,908

The election day numbers pushed him up. He was at 62% on EV alone.

He's down to 61.5% on the NY Times.

On DDHQ he's at 62.2% with identical numbers.

I'd trust NY Times more (no, not because they have Ossoff at a lower percentage)

It's strange, NY Times has the total votes at 54,107 while DDHQ has their total votes at 53,558. That's what's causing the discrepancy.

EDIT: NY Times has a bunch of votes for Gray that DDHQ does not have. All the other numbers are the same.

[The Other Castro]

OK yeah the NYT percentages are correct, DDHQ didn't update Bob Gray's vote total messing up the #s.

[Suburbia]

Poor Karen Handel. Her political career seems likely over. I can see her making one final run for GA gov in 2018.

[MAINEiac4434]

DDHQ just updated again, Ossoff down to 61.3%.

[ajc0918]

@Nate_Cohn
There are 6 precincts where the vote is done. If the drop held elsewhere, it would be enough for Ossoff. We'll see if it's representative.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ossoff is going to do better than thought anyway, the question is only if it is good enough.

[Virginiá]

We can just take it back in 2018 easily.

That's not really guaranteed. If Trump's unpopularity sweeps him into office, there is also a chance it can keep him in office, at least until 2020 or 2024, depending on reelection.

[Gass3268]

@Nate_Cohn
There are 6 precincts where the vote is done. If the drop held elsewhere, it would be enough for Ossoff. We'll see if it's representative.

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[MAINEiac4434]

NY Times has it down 60.6% with more votes for Gray than DDHQ.

[Confused Democrat]

This feels different than Kansas.

[TheSaint250]

NY Times updated: Ossoff dropped a tiny bit to 60.6%.  He's going down as the night goes on (not that big of a shocker due to early vote vs. election day vote)

[GeorgiaModerate]

@LakeChip (a veteran GOP operative in Georgia):

If the drop in Early Votes to Election Day votes in Cobb and Fulton are proportional he's over 50% #GA06

[ajc0918]

I can't believe Judson Hill gave up a State Senate seat for this...

[Xing]

Ossoff down to 54% in Cobb.

[The Other Castro]

DDHQ has corrected the Gray vote count, their percentages are now in line with others.

[Hindsight was 2020]

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This is a GOP Georgia guy

[Chief Justice Keef]

[Suburbia]

We can just take it back in 2018 easily.

That's not really guaranteed. If Trump's unpopularity sweeps him into office, there is also a chance it can keep him in office, at least until 2020 or 2024, depending on reelection.

If Ossoff wins, he should want to be a House lifer, because who do Georgia Democrats have left that can be electable in this district if he runs for Senate or governor? You know, he will be seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party post-Obama/Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff down to 54% in Cobb.

If Ossoff even comes close to 50 in Cobb, he'll easily top it overall.