GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 249002 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #150 on: March 20, 2017, 09:00:56 PM »

Finally got the full results of the poll. It is:

Jon Ossoff (D) - 41%
Karen Handel (R) - 16% (leading Gray when you include decimals)
Bob Gray (R) - 16
Judson Hill (R) - 9%
Dan Moody (R) - 5%
Ron Slotin (D) - 3%
David Abroms (R) - 2%
Bruce LeVell (R) - <1%
Someone Else - 2%
Not Sure - 6%

Poll of 625 Likely Special Election Voters conducted over March 15-16.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #151 on: March 20, 2017, 09:08:42 PM »

So it adds up to more or less 49% R to 44% D.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #152 on: March 20, 2017, 09:22:26 PM »

rofl Handel is already losing ground very quickly.

Either Gray or Handel would be awesome running against. I worry Judson Hill, who is doing a might balancing act of not being too overly pro-Trump and not being too overly incompetent, makes it to the run-off, because he'd win 9 times out of 10.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #153 on: March 20, 2017, 09:31:44 PM »

Looks great for Ossoff. 

I think the whichever R ends up making the runoff will have a hard time consolidating support, Ossoff will just have to keep his 40-ish% motivated going into the runoff to win.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #154 on: March 21, 2017, 08:52:10 AM »

I think some of the 49% Republican voters would defect to Ossoff in the run-off if they feel that their candidate is too/not Trumpian.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #155 on: March 21, 2017, 03:19:40 PM »

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
#GA06: Hearing some private grumbling from top Rs that early GOP attacks portraying Ossoff as immature haven't worked. New msging in works.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #156 on: March 21, 2017, 05:17:36 PM »

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
#GA06: Hearing some private grumbling from top Rs that early GOP attacks portraying Ossoff as immature haven't worked. New msging in works.
No sh*t it doesn't work
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heatcharger
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« Reply #157 on: March 21, 2017, 07:25:33 PM »

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Here's the link directly to that poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/342481175/GA-06-Clout-Research-R-for-ZPolitics-March-2017

The second choice numbers are:

Slotin (D) - 34%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 12%
Moody (R) - 9%
Ossoff (D) - 6%

Trump's approval is:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

I think some of the 49% Republican voters would defect to Ossoff in the run-off if they feel that their candidate is too/not Trumpian.

Based on this poll, that seems to be the case. I really wish a different pollster surveyed the race though.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #158 on: March 21, 2017, 08:06:57 PM »

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Here's the link directly to that poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/342481175/GA-06-Clout-Research-R-for-ZPolitics-March-2017

The second choice numbers are:

Slotin (D) - 34%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 12%
Moody (R) - 9%
Ossoff (D) - 6%

Trump's approval is:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

I think some of the 49% Republican voters would defect to Ossoff in the run-off if they feel that their candidate is too/not Trumpian.

Based on this poll, that seems to be the case. I really wish a different pollster surveyed the race though.

I didn't realize there was another Dem in this poll getting 3%. That makes it look even better for Ossoff.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #159 on: March 21, 2017, 08:23:06 PM »

Reasons I don't think Jon Ossoff will win:

1. Unified Republican field after the primary

2. (Just a prediction) Lower turnout

I have to say that I'm surprised he's doing so well.
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Holmes
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« Reply #160 on: March 21, 2017, 08:25:50 PM »

You can't guarantee a united Republican field after the runoff, or even that everyone who voted R in the jungle primary will vote for the eventual Republican candidate.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #161 on: March 21, 2017, 09:00:41 PM »

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
#GA06: Hearing some private grumbling from top Rs that early GOP attacks portraying Ossoff as immature haven't worked. New msging in works.

Prediction: Their next attack will be to call him a liberal.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #162 on: March 22, 2017, 05:07:57 PM »

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
#GA06: Hearing some private grumbling from top Rs that early GOP attacks portraying Ossoff as immature haven't worked. New msging in works.

No, really?
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Klartext89
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« Reply #163 on: March 23, 2017, 05:34:07 AM »

Who is Jon Ossoff and why is he playing Star Wars like I did when I was 7?
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #164 on: March 23, 2017, 05:43:10 PM »

You can't guarantee a united Republican field after the runoff, or even that everyone who voted R in the jungle primary will vote for the eventual Republican candidate.
You can't guarantee that it won't happen or everyone who voted D in the primary will vote in the runoff
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #165 on: March 23, 2017, 05:54:58 PM »

Kraushaar: CLF adding $1.1M to their ad buy, new barrage will hammer him as Pelosi's rubber stamp.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #166 on: March 23, 2017, 06:03:58 PM »


That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)
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henster
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« Reply #167 on: March 23, 2017, 06:14:34 PM »


That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)

This is why Pelosi should have gone a long time ago, even today she still polls worse than Paul Ryan and she hasn't had the Speakership in 7 years. I do think she motivates Rs and continues to be an effective bogeyman for them.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #168 on: March 23, 2017, 06:32:36 PM »


That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)

This is why Pelosi should have gone a long time ago, even today she still polls worse than Paul Ryan and she hasn't had the Speakership in 7 years. I do think she motivates Rs and continues to be an effective bogeyman for them.

Yeah it's pretty mind-boggling that she's STILL the minority leader after all these years. Though probably that's because nobody else really wants the job, same as with Ryan.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #169 on: March 23, 2017, 06:51:18 PM »


That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)

This is why Pelosi should have gone a long time ago, even today she still polls worse than Paul Ryan and she hasn't had the Speakership in 7 years. I do think she motivates Rs and continues to be an effective bogeyman for them.

Yeah it's pretty mind-boggling that she's STILL the minority leader after all these years. Though probably that's because nobody else really wants the job, same as with Ryan.
Tim Ryan wants the job an he better get it in 2018
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henster
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« Reply #170 on: March 23, 2017, 08:29:53 PM »


That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)

This is why Pelosi should have gone a long time ago, even today she still polls worse than Paul Ryan and she hasn't had the Speakership in 7 years. I do think she motivates Rs and continues to be an effective bogeyman for them.

Yeah it's pretty mind-boggling that she's STILL the minority leader after all these years. Though probably that's because nobody else really wants the job, same as with Ryan.

If Ds don't win back the House in 2018 I think she will go.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #171 on: March 23, 2017, 08:46:07 PM »

people here still whining about Pelosi? change Democrat leaders, guess what you'd get?

SO AND SO IS A RUBBER STAMP FOR CHUCK SCHUMER

just idiocy. this is still a Republican district no matter what they're going to dislike Democrat leadership.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #172 on: March 23, 2017, 08:57:06 PM »

people here still whining about Pelosi? change Democrat leaders, guess what you'd get?

SO AND SO IS A RUBBER STAMP FOR CHUCK SCHUMER

just idiocy. this is still a Republican district no matter what they're going to dislike Democrat leadership.
^This^
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ajc0918
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« Reply #173 on: March 23, 2017, 09:03:48 PM »

I don't think Ossoff will win, but seeing him be in the 37-41% range with this many candidates in the race is encouraging. Obviously Republican voters will consolidate behind the winner but I think he has a narrow path if he turns out his voters.

In the run-off, assuming he makes it, I would expect an Ossoff voter to be more likely turn out than a Republican voter whose candidate lost. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out given that there are a lot more Republican voters whose first choice candidate lost than there will be for Democrats.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #174 on: March 24, 2017, 01:56:18 PM »

New poll of possible match ups have Ossoff beating Handel 42-41 an Gray 44-42 http://m.dailykos.com/stories/2017/3/24/1646914/-As-a-new-poll-gives-Jon-Ossoff-a-runoff-lead-the-GOP-drops-another-1-1-million-on-ads
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