GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which Republican would be the strongest? Handel seems to be leading but she carries the career politician stigma. Gray looks like he is getting support from Trump's base. Not sure about Judson Hill but he seems like an establishment conservative that would probably do well in this district. Any idea about Moody?

Handel has an edge in name recognition.  Moody seems to have the largest presence in signs and ads on the R side, although Ossoff's exceed all of the R's put together.  That's just a subjective opinion from personal observation; I work in the Sixth, although I live in the Ninth.

This morning I heard an anti-Ossoff radio ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund attacking him as a liberal who will rubber-stamp Pelosi's agenda.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Republican leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" Ossoff is going to hit 50% ban avoid the runnoff https://twitter.com/ALT_DOJ/status/847098515020926977/photo/1

[Holmes]

That would be incredibly horrible for Republicans. I don't think he'll make it in the first round, but it's not like he has a lot of Democratic competition. Still, I think he'll need some soft R votes to reach 50%, and they have a lot of candidates to chosen from before even considering Ossoff.

[Nyvin]

Republican leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" Ossoff is going to hit 50% ban avoid the runnoff https://twitter.com/ALT_DOJ/status/847098515020926977/photo/1

If this happens, it really is time for Republicans to panic.

[Holmes]

Also that quote makes no sense. "Ossoff might get 50% in a crowded primary but is unlikely to win the runoff." If anything he's more likely to get 50% in the runoff than the primary.

[Dr. Arch]

Go Ossoff!

[Türkisblau]

Handel must be sweating like a dog rn.

[RI]

Voters so far as really old and really white. I don't think Ossoff will even come close to 50% before a run-off.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also that quote makes no sense. "Ossoff might get 50% in a crowded primary but is unlikely to win the runoff." If anything he's more likely to get 50% in the runoff than the primary.

I could see the argument of Republicans not being ready for the jungle primary with a crowded Republican field but mobilizing better for the runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would Ossoff be the youngest member of Congress if he wins?

Looks like it.  I think the current youngest is Elise Stefanik of NY (age 32).  Ossoff is 30.

[KingSweden]

Also that quote makes no sense. "Ossoff might get 50% in a crowded primary but is unlikely to win the runoff." If anything he's more likely to get 50% in the runoff than the primary.

I could see the argument of Republicans not being ready for the jungle primary with a crowded Republican field but mobilizing better for the runoff.

Yeah, this is a fair assessment.

[Devout Centrist]

Republican leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" Ossoff is going to hit 50% ban avoid the runnoff https://twitter.com/ALT_DOJ/status/847098515020926977/photo/1

If Ossoff won 50% on the 18th, that would be a f**king statement.

[MAINEiac4434]

Would Ossoff be the youngest member of Congress if he wins?

Yes. He's younger than current Baby of the House Elise Stefanik.

[windjammer]

It's a toss up and Ossoff is the underdog.

[publicunofficial]

It's a toss up and Ossoff is the underdog.

This.

The media is starting to build Ossoff up to be the favorite. Feels like it's gonna end with him coming up a few points short and then a million Dems in Disarray articles will follow.

[heatcharger]

It's a toss up and Ossoff is the underdog.

This.

The media is starting to build Ossoff up to be the favorite. Feels like it's gonna end with him coming up a few points short and then a million Dems in Disarray articles will follow.

Agreed. This race is still strongly Lean R because of the fundamentals of the district.

Anyways, here's what the early vote is looking like compared to 2014, however meaningless it may be, with Democrats way up and Republicans way down:

[DrScholl]

Republicans don't necessarily have much cause for enthusiasm right now, which is a big turnout factor. The reverse is true for Democrats, who have a lot of motivation to turnout and seem to be doing just that.

[Horus]

I'm in the Dunwoody area, close to Perimeter mall, and I'm seeing tons of Ossoff signs on almost every residential street. This is certainly one of the friendlier parts of the district, but last year I saw maybe two non local signs the entire campaign. I'm still skeptical that he can hit 50%, and I'm still skeptical that he can win. I really struggle to see how a district containing East Cobb votes Dem, but if anyone can make that happen, it's Ossoff.

Current prediction

Ossoff - 43%
Handel - Somewhere in the 20s

Runoff

Handel - 51%
Ossoff - 49%

[Jeppe]

Gonna stick to my bold prediction that Ossoff hits 50% in the jungle primary. The other part of the realignment is happening!

If GA-6 goes Democratic in 2017 and 2018 though, which other +(R+10) Republican suburban districts are gonna start flipping in 2018?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not surprising but dems are very far ahead of where they were early voting wise in 2014 while reps are far behind. Also there are another 6000 requested but unreturned absentee ballots with the breakdown Dem 47%/Rep 21% https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/847256025275269120

[publicunofficial]

Sabato just changed GA-06 from Likely R to Toss-Up.

Said that it will remain a toss-up if the overall D vote is greater than 45%.

[Shadows]

If Ossoff gets 45% odd in the jungle primary, he is winning in the next round. Do you think Handel (let's say he gets 20-25%) will be able to get the entire Republican vote, almost 30-35% of the other vote including the entire Libertarian vote.

Even with polarization in a D vs R race in the age of Trump, Ossoff has a dam good chance of getting 5% odd in the 30-35% vote bank ! This race is a tossup till more data is available - Maybe Lean R but more like a tossup

[publicunofficial]

Josh Kraushaar speculates that an Ossoff win would do wonders for D recruitment in similar seats. (TX-07, KS-03, CA-45, NJ-11 namely).

[LabourJersey]

Josh Kraushaar speculates that an Ossoff win would do wonders for D recruitment in similar seats. (TX-07, KS-03, CA-45, NJ-11 namely).

Agreed--even a close loss there would still suggest that suburban GOP seats are moving away from the Republicans and Trump, which is going to lead to a lot more top-tier House candidates for Democrats compared to '16, '14 or '12.

[The Other Castro]

"The fear is definitely out there" among some Republican strategists that Ossoff could top 50% on the first ballot.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703