GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nate reporting EV is about 42D/42R which was about EV originally in the first round so good for Ossoff https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/869724339356172289

[Matty]

What do y'all make of this?

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[GeorgiaModerate]

What do y'all make of this?

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The thing that jumps out to me is the 32% who voted in neither R nor D primaries before, a much higher percentage than in the overall EV so far.  So I'd assume that many of these are newly registered.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff and Handel to have four debates (maybe): http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/31/georgia-6th-handel-ossoff-to-square-off-in-four-debates/

[Hammy]

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

[_]

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Key thing to note is young, so might be a bit of Crossover there.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sounds like it was false hope

[Adam Griffin]

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

[windjammer]

I mean, I know, that early voting doesn't mean a lot of things but, any news about it? Is it favoring Ossoff or Handel?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mean, I know, that early voting doesn't mean a lot of things but, any news about it? Is it favoring Ossoff or Handel?

There's no way to know, of course.  Based on past primary participation (which may indicate a likely preference in this election but does NOT guarantee it), the D/R split is much more D than the Nov 2016 EV at this point.  This could be interpreted as good for Ossoff.  But it's more R than the first round of the primary; this could be interpreted as good for Handel.  Or it might just mean that R's are making their minds up more quickly this round, since they don't have a plethora of candidates to choose from.  Or, since turnout at this point is very high, it could just mean that the voters are tired of the constant attention and just want to get their votes out of the way.  There's no guarantee that it will continue at this pace.  I'm sure there are a ton of other possible interpretations.

In short: don't read too much into EV.  We should all have learned that lesson after November.

[Hammy]

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

We haven't had a general election runoff in Georgia since '08 - a Political millennium ago.

[DrScholl]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

[Mr. Smith]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

This'll probably work.

What do y'all make of this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

It'll probably be close though.

Nonetheless, this money all could've gone to Kansas or Montana.

[Hindsight was 2020]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

This'll probably work.

What do y'all make of this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

It'll probably be close though.

Nonetheless, this money all could've gone to Kansas or Montana.

God what is with you guys were on hand it's all "50 state strategy" but then "eww suburbans no only support rural areas" it doesn't work like that areas like Georgia are going to play a bigger role in 2018 then Kansas or Montana

[MT Treasurer]

This is probably a stupid question, but why is the early vote in GA-06 generally Republican-leaning? Didn't Ossoff win it in a landslide in April?

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

Ossoff's response:

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[Hindsight was 2020]

This is probably a stupid question, but why is the early vote in GA-06 generally Republican-leaning? Didn't Ossoff win it in a landslide in April?

Actually no it was tied he got out to really good start because of all the intention he got but the GOP caught up at the end.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is probably a stupid question, but why is the early vote in GA-06 generally Republican-leaning? Didn't Ossoff win it in a landslide in April?

Remember that all that's being measured is which party's primary the voter last voted in.  Georgia has open primaries and no party registration; we choose a party primary ballot at the time we go to the polls.   And for many local races in R-leaning areas, the R primary effectively decides the outcome, because the Democrat has zero chance in the general election.  In many cases, there's no Democratic candidate at all.  As such, many voters vote in R primaries but don't necessarily vote for the R in the general election (I've done this several times).

[GeorgiaModerate]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

[Hindsight was 2020]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

It reall should be a good sign for Ossoff that he has been up an close to if not breaking 50 in most recent polls

[heatcharger]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

Last poll from them Handel up 3 so maybe there is a bit of momentum. I'd feel more confident if Ossoff was consistently posting above 50% considering which way undecideds always go in Southern states.

Also, there's a huge age gap here:

[Sorenroy]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

I had a bit of a chuckle at the idea that Michael Moore is the face of "dividing America" in 2017. That's rich.

[Sorenroy]

By the way, this thread is fast approaching 2,500 posts. Will it be locked at some point, or are we going to try to see this election through on one thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

Last poll from them Handel up 3 so maybe there is a bit of momentum. I'd feel more confident if Ossoff was consistently posting above 50% considering which way undecideds always go in Southern states.

Also, there's a huge age gap here:

If I'm Ossoff, I have to like the party splits.  He's getting 14% of R's while only losing 7% of D's, and winning large majorities of Independents and Others.