GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Badger]

This is some painful stuff from Handel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgcDMYC27JM

So, seeing as Ossoff is presumably "Johnny" in this metaphor, Handel must be the Devil?

Erg. Cringeworthy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why participate in a nationally televised debate when the only people you need to convince are concentrated in a very specific area? Why waste time preparing for and going to said debate when you can have one more day of running what is widely reported to be a highly effective ground effort to mobilize voters? Why rule that a CNN debate which a pretty limited amount of people will watch anyways is more important than getting in ~20k unreturned absentee ballots and energizing the thousands of additional people who were just recently allowed to register and who certainly lean Dem?

This.  Ossoff is already going to participate in three debates on local media (two on TV, one on radio).   I think he may also be trying to minimize the "nationalization" of the race to avoid turning off local Republicans who might be potential crossover votes for him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Why participate in a nationally televised debate when the only people you need to convince are concentrated in a very specific area? Why waste time preparing for and going to said debate when you can have one more day of running what is widely reported to be a highly effective ground effort to mobilize voters? Why rule that a CNN debate which a pretty limited amount of people will watch anyways is more important than getting in ~20k unreturned absentee ballots and energizing the thousands of additional people who were just recently allowed to register and who certainly lean Dem?

Exactly.

And they are running idiotic ads here saying he will be a Congressmen for the people of San Francisco. The last thing he needs to do is be on a national platform giving that accusation more life.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

52.7% Ossoff (D)
47.3% Handel (R)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why participate in a nationally televised debate when the only people you need to convince are concentrated in a very specific area? Why waste time preparing for and going to said debate when you can have one more day of running what is widely reported to be a highly effective ground effort to mobilize voters? Why rule that a CNN debate which a pretty limited amount of people will watch anyways is more important than getting in ~20k unreturned absentee ballots and energizing the thousands of additional people who were just recently allowed to register and who certainly lean Dem?

Exactly.

And they are running idiotic ads here saying he will be a Congressmen for the people of San Francisco. The last thing he needs to do is be on a national platform giving that accusation more life.

Those "Eek! A DEMOCRAT!" ads are cringeworthy, and I really wonder about their effectiveness.  Any voter who views Pelosi as a villain is already unlikely to vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.  And for voters open to voting for a Democrat, I don't see this argument doing much to discourage them.

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ  18m18 minutes ago
As of tonight, 55,001 ballots cast already in #GA06 runoff. That's just <2k short of the TOTAL early vote in the first round.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/871905970829627392

[RogueBeaver]

National Journal: Strategists in both parties believe Ossoff has a small edge.


WaPo: Dem Donors aren't thrilled about opening their wallets for specials.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

[Matty]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

Part of it is that in the first round, dekalb had like one early vote location.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

True, but keep in mind that Cobb has fewer EV locations open (I think it's C 2, D 5, F 6 at present).  Also, Fulton has one more day in the books; they were the only one to have EV last Saturday.

[rob in cal]

  Ok people put a fork in it, this election is done, Ossoff is going to win.  I say this because I got off the fence and bought some shares on predictit for Ossoff at 61%.  Just feel he has the momentum, the district is so much more Dem friendly than the KS and Mt seats which still showed a surge to Dems, he's got lots of money behind him etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

  Ok people put a fork in it, this election is done, Ossoff is going to win.  I say this because I got off the fence and bought some shares on predictit for Ossoff at 61%.  Just feel he has the momentum, the district is so much more Dem friendly than the KS and Mt seats which still showed a surge to Dems, he's got lots of money behind him etc.

Oh my goodness, now he's doomed. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

  Ok people put a fork in it, this election is done, Ossoff is going to win.  I say this because I got off the fence and bought some shares on predictit for Ossoff at 61%.  Just feel he has the momentum, the district is so much more Dem friendly than the KS and Mt seats which still showed a surge to Dems, he's got lots of money behind him etc.

This reminds me of the same tools who called the race for Quist when Assaultforte did his thing, NOTHING IS OVER UNTIL THE FAT LADY SINGS! Which in this case works perfectly because Karen Handel is a fat lady, and she will chirp either a victory or defeat speech eventually. But till then, everything is in play, especially in a tossup/tilt R election.

[Tintrlvr]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

Part of it is that in the first round, dekalb had like one early vote location.

True, but, either way, Ossoff only needs a small improvement from the first round to be over 50%, which more early voting in DeKalb County could definitely give him. That said, tea leaves from early voting remain problematic for forecasting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just a reminder that the first debate is tonight from 8pm-9pm EDT.  Folks in the Atlanta area can watch on WSB (channel 2).  It's also being live streamed on WSB's website (http://www.wsbtv.com/live-breaking2) and Facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/wsbtv/).

[Technocracy Timmy]

Anybody else watching the debate right now? It's starting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anybody else watching the debate right now? It's starting.

I am.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Based off of the FB feedback Ossoff is doing good according to Ossoff fans and Handel is doing well according to Handel fan

[GeorgiaModerate]

Based off of the FB feedback Ossoff is doing good according to Ossoff fans and Handel is doing well according to Handel fan

I can see that.  Neither is doing spectacularly well or poorly so far.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Yeah it's pretty even. I'd give a slight edge to Ossof but not much.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think he did really well on Handel being a hypocrite on Syria strikes

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think he did really well on Handel being a hypocrite on Syria strikes

Yeah, that was the best point scored so far.

[Technocracy Timmy]

"Don't believe the CBO. Trust me." - Handel

[GeorgiaModerate]

Handel is doing better in this debate than I remember her doing in previous elections.  Ossoff is a bit better, though.  He seems to be a naturally gifted speaker.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow Handel is actually standing by the ACHA act that might kill her