GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hammy]

Having had to sit through the ads (which is especially irritating since I'm not even in that district) I just have to point out the GOP ads during the first round had nothing but negative to say about Handel, about how she wasted tax dollars, used every office as nothing but a springboard for her next office, etc, and now they're heaping praise on her like she's some party messiah, all while calling Ossoff a liar while making some of the same points as the first round GOP ads.

[Lothal1]

Handel and co are going to have a field day with ads from the debate. Best quote I saw on twitter: "Ossoff: 'There's far to much money in politics.'"  - the 20 million dollar candidate. But muh dark money!

Attacking a Democrat for saying there's too much money in politics? You must've thought the Han Solo ad was brilliant.

Theyve made it the most expensive house election ever... Do you see a trend?

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, since website polls are totally unscientific, the final result of WSB's poll on who won the debate:

Ossoff 67%
Handel 33%

[Holmes]

Handel and co are going to have a field day with ads from the debate. Best quote I saw on twitter: "Ossoff: 'There's far to much money in politics.'"  - the 20 million dollar candidate. But muh dark money!

Attacking a Democrat for saying there's too much money in politics? You must've thought the Han Solo ad was brilliant.

Theyve made it the most expensive house election ever... Do you see a trend?

You need to play the game to beat the game. Why do you think so many anti-government conservatives run for office? Not because they love it, that's for sure.

(Although it's usually a different story once they're in.)

[Stranger in a strange land]

Big gaffe gaining traction on twitter from Handel from the debate:

Geez, that's a very Palin-esque gaffe. What a moron. She cannot possibly be able to cover that up.

This isn't quite as devastating as it would be in a less wealthy district, but it's still terrible

[Holmes]

It probably will have more implications outside of the district, yeah, but in a close race, everything matters.

[publicunofficial]

Karen Handel would probably rocket up my "least favorite congresspeople" list if elected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The second debate is tomorrow morning.  This may be the final one, because others have been scheduled but none of them have been confirmed by both sides yet.  How to watch:

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So tomorrow we have this debate, the UK election, and oh yeah, some guy testifying in Washington.   Couldn't they spread things out a little better?

[Young Conservative]

Handel and co are going to have a field day with ads from the debate. Best quote I saw on twitter: "Ossoff: 'There's far to much money in politics.'"  - the 20 million dollar candidate. But muh dark money!

Attacking a Democrat for saying there's too much money in politics? You must've thought the Han Solo ad was brilliant.

Theyve made it the most expensive house election ever... Do you see a trend?

You need to play the game to beat the game. Why do you think so many anti-government conservatives run for office? Not because they love it, that's for sure.

(Although it's usually a different story once they're in.)

Politicians like Jon Ossof have no intention of doing anything about campaign finance. (Not that I think they should, but I do think statesman should do what they say they will.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

[Gass3268]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

That growing DeKalb-Cobb disparity should be alarming Handel. Cobb is what should pull her over the finish line.

Does anyone know what the early vote %'s per county looked like in the early vote in the first round.

[_]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

That growing DeKalb-Cobb disparity should be alarming Handel. Cobb is what should pull her over the finish line.

Does anyone know what the early vote %'s per county looked like in the early vote in the first round.

Ummm, look at Griffin's quoted post.

[Kamala]

If Handel wins despite all of this, we should never pay attention to any early vote numbers again. Ossoff probably has this, though. Lean D.

Yeah, Ossoff has really impressed me with his skills as a politician. Handel disappoints, especially from the debate.

[Gass3268]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

That growing DeKalb-Cobb disparity should be alarming Handel. Cobb is what should pull her over the finish line.

Does anyone know what the early vote %'s per county looked like in the early vote in the first round.

Former Pres. Griffin said in the first post in this quotation that it was 26 Cobb, 21 DeKalb, which sounds right, cuz I remember DeKalb was underrepresented. This could potentially be a pretty big deal in deciding the final outcome, particularly if Dems are getting those who didn't vote in DeKalb in round 1 to the polls.

Haha, whoops. Totally missed that.

[Adam Griffin]

Let's keep expectations tampered as far as anything to do with early vote is concerned -- we've surely learned that by now.

For starters, not all of the early vote is in yet. Judging by the raw vote already cast, a much larger share of the electorate is going to vote early this time. For all we know, this is (likely) a disproportionate sample even among early voters, let alone the electorate.

Secondly, remember that GOP voters closed strongly in the final days of early voting in April (a dynamic that I think was only partially connected to a divided field/people making up their minds about who to vote for). Democrats vote early, Republicans vote late - both out of habit and because Democratic campaigns push early voting much more so.

Remember the gulf of difference in April between EV and ED:

EV (29.5%): Democrats 64.7%
ED (70.5%): Republicans 57.6%

Democrats combined won 78% of mail ballots and 63% of in-person votes, for an early vote total of 65%.

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Listening to the debate on WABE, and mostly the same stuff but one new point from Ossoff so far.  He said explicitly he does not favor any increase in income tax rates.

[Holmes]

Listening to the debate on WABE, and mostly the same stuff but one new point from Ossoff so far.  He said explicitly he does not favor any increase in income tax rates.

For all tax brackets?

Mm, it's what I'd expect for the district but oh well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The second debate went over much of the same ground as the first one.  They also talked about climate change and Paris (Ossoff wants to stay in, Handel wants to get out, unsurprisingly) and Comey/Russia.  That had the potential to be interesting but really wasn't; Handel suggested letting the investigations proceed before rushing to judgment, and Ossoff basically agreed with that.  When asked specifically about impeachment, he said "we're not there yet" (he's said that before).

Overall, I don't see this debate doing much to move the needle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has now raised $23M; 15M of it since the first round of the primary.

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[Gass3268]

Ossoff has now raised $23M; 15M of it since the first round of the primary.

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Can we stop the meme that Ossoff is getting his money in "huge" amounts?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ossoff has now raised $23M; 15M of it since the first round of the primary.

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Can we stop the meme that Ossoff is getting his money in "huge" amounts?

That particular attack line is more about the location of the donations, and not necessarily the amount. For better or for worse, the vast, vast majority of donations to the Ossoff campaign are from out of state, and a number of them are from Nancy Pelosi's congressional district.

[Brittain33]

That particular attack line is more about the location of the donations, and not necessarily the amount. For better or for worse, the vast, vast majority of donations to the Ossoff campaign are from out of state, and a number of them are from Nancy Pelosi's congressional district.

To be fair, I believe the vast majority of residents of GA-6 moved to the Atlanta area from somewhere else.

[Tintrlvr]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Cobb portion actually dropping, surprisingly. That's -0.4 for Cobb and +0.4 for Fulton since yesterday (no change for DeKalb). Pretty surprising. I'd be shocked if the Cobb portion of the early vote ends up under 20%, but maybe.

[TheSaint250]

Question I wanted to put up for debate: how will the Comey testimony affect this election?

[Virginiá]

Question I wanted to put up for debate: how will the Comey testimony affect this election?

Honestly, all this drama is very badly timed for Republicans. It's weighing down Trump's approval ratings, and those ratings do have some correlation to downballot performance. The worse a president is viewed, the worse their party tends to performs in elections.

My general thoughts are, if this hurts Trump, it will probably hurt Handel, whether it is via actual vote flipping, or more likely, helping to depress turnout. Unlike districts such as MT-AL and KS-4, GA-6 is much more anti-Trump and thus more receptive to a backlash.