GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Virginiá]

I think you may be comparing Cohn's numbers to McDonald's, which are quite a bit different. The ones I posted are McDonald's; McDonald's numbers yesterday were 45 D/32 U/23 R. For comparison, Cohn's numbers from yesterday were 55 D/16 U/29 R.

Just curious - but where are they getting those numbers from?

[The Other Castro]

To avoid disappointment, I'm still going to assume for now that Ossoff will finish in the first round with mid 40s and lose the runoff by about 5 points. Hopefully I can be pleasantly surprised.

[Hindsight was 2020]

How many people do we expect to vote in the primary?  Is getting over 200 thousand too out there?

Early turnout as a raw number is on par with 2014's early turnout, for what it's worth. There were 210k votes cast in the GA-6 race overall in 2014.

It's the wealthiest CD in GA and one of the wealthiest in the South, so I expect overall turnout for a special election will be much higher than average - even before factoring in just how competitive this race is now apparently becoming.

I've been hearing that none registered are likely breaking dem do you agree?

[Adam Griffin]

I think you may be comparing Cohn's numbers to McDonald's, which are quite a bit different. The ones I posted are McDonald's; McDonald's numbers yesterday were 45 D/32 U/23 R. For comparison, Cohn's numbers from yesterday were 55 D/16 U/29 R.

Just curious - but where are they getting those numbers from?

Voter file data. From the looks of it, McDonald is playing it safe, only relying on those with well-established histories of voting in party primaries, while Cohn is likely including everybody who has voted in a primary - even if they have voted in just one - and may also be using voter file scoring models to further predict how a greater share of the "unknowns" is likely to lean.

This is arguably why McDonald's share of unknowns is in the mid-30s, while Cohn's is in the low-20s. Honestly, I'd bank on Cohn's being the more accurate of the two: McDonald has acknowledged in the past that his access to voter file data is often less accurate/older than some others; on the other hand, I imagine Cohn has access to a premiere voter file solution like Catalyst.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nate Cohn: D 51, R 29. Overal D 54, R 30 https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/848200288863432704

[ajc0918]

"Noteworthy: early voters have been less white in every day of early voting, and non-D/R vote is most diverse--60% w, 10% a, 7% b, 4% h"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/848207577917870080

Non-D/R voters seem to look more Dem leaning.

[Chief Justice Keef]

This race is starting to parallel the Martha Coakley vs. Scott Brown matchup in Massachusetts. Ossoff's chances are looking better and better each day.

[The Arizonan]

If Jon Ossoff wins the special election, then he would be the first member of Congress that's younger than me and I would start feeling old as Elise Stefanik is only a few months older than me.

The funny thing is that about this time, I was reading about Elliott Levitas who was also born in Atlanta and ended up losing reelection because his district became too Republican.

[Ronnie]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

[Gustaf]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

what

but...what?

Is this about out of state support for him?

[Gustaf]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

what

but...what?

Is this about out of state support for him?

I thought the thinly-veiled racial undertones were clear

I feel like his response to that would plausibly be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IPKL1Oy-CA

[Maxwell]

I'm amazed how they don't have anything on Ossoff.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

[Crumpets]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

[Rjjr77]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

This is purely conjecture. There is nothing to suggest previous non voters showing up, this race had the highest turnout of any congressional in Georgia in 2016...

[Hindsight was 2020]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

This is purely conjecture. There is nothing to suggest previous non voters showing up, this race had the highest turnout of any congressional in Georgia in 2016...

Both Nate Cohn and Michael McDonald have first time/non-registered voters as a big chunk of the turnout

[Rjjr77]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

This is purely conjecture. There is nothing to suggest previous non voters showing up, this race had the highest turnout of any congressional in Georgia in 2016...

Both Nate Cohn and Michael McDonald have first time/non-registered voters as a big chunk of the turnout

Early vote turnout** early vote numbers are not good predictors for how a race breaks down, especially this early.

Edit- your also of the assumption that all of these first time voters are voting Ossoff, it's really a worthless exercise to be breaking down these numbers, Ossoff isn't going to get 50% on the run off unless turnout is crazy low.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Judson Hill has raised $473K so far and has $113K on hand.  This is far behind Ossoff, but still an impressive amount for a crowded special election.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/02/hill-raises-nearly-500k-in-georgia-special-election-bid/

[Mehmentum]

Edit- your also of the assumption that all of these first time voters are voting Ossoff, it's really a worthless exercise to be breaking down these numbers, Ossoff isn't going to get 50% on the run off unless turnout is crazy low.

First time voters almost always favor the Democrats.  Even in 2016, when Trump turned out many previously apathetic voters, Clinton won first time voters by 19 points.

Its a special election, low turnout is the norm.

[SCNCmod]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

This doesn't seem like a very effective add.. for ...
....1) a special election (where voters who turnout are likely more informed & less susceptible to "demon liberal" scare tactics)...
....2) a district that is higher educated than most (also not likely to be influence by "liberal demon ads).

[kyc0705]

I'm amazed how they don't have anything on Ossoff.

Should they? I can’t imagine he’s had time to accumulate many skeletons in his political closet.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm amazed how they don't have anything on Ossoff.

The simple answer is he's not a politician. Same with Rob Quist in Montana.

[publicunofficial]

RRH is commissioning a poll, so hopefully we get a decent picture soon.

Paul Ryan's PAC apparently has a poll out that has Ossoff with -17 favorables, which I'm gonna go ahead and say is biased.

[Hindsight was 2020]

RRH is commissioning a poll, so hopefully we get a decent picture soon.

Paul Ryan's PAC apparently has a poll out that has Ossoff with -17 favorables, which I'm gonna go ahead and say is biased.

No really?!?!?!

[henster]

Really hope Pelosi goes after 2018, she continues to be an anvil for D candidates after all these years and is not even a good spokesperson for the party.