GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Dr. Arch]

#LearnedNothingFrom2016

[Dr. Arch]

#LearnedNothingFrom2016

You mean lets not discuss policy because Trump sucks is a losing strategy!?

More on the lines about polls and overreactions, but yeah, let's go with that too.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2932/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Georgia's-6th-District Handel has overtaken Ossoff for the first time on the Predictit market

[Dr. Arch]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2932/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Georgia's-6th-District Handel has overtaken Ossoff for the first time on the Predictit market

People are going to be freaking out for the next 24 hours aren't they?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thankfully this will all be over in 25 and a half hours.

[Matty]

I see we are back to trashing polls we don't like the result of, and glorifying polls that show results we like.

It's 2016 all over again.

This is pure tossup, period.

If Handel wins, it is because republicans that stayed home in first round come out this time around.

[DrScholl]

It's interesting that blue avatars start posting in this thread once one (only one poll) shows Handel in the lead and a right at 50% (very convenient).

[KingSweden]

I think Marty is right, though I still think Ossoff wins very, very narrowly. Knife edge Tossup

And predictit is not a good barometer as 2016 and Brexit should show.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

It's interesting that blue avatars start posting in this thread once one (only one poll) shows Handel in the lead and a right at 50% (very convenient).

Wasn't much to post about given that this was entirely #analysis and trying to make something of exit polling

[Dr. Arch]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

[JJC]

Hey guys. I've been playing with the EV numbers and projected election day turnout, and this is what I came up with:

Early Votes:
No Party (60,000) – 65% Ossoff
GOP (50,000) – 88% Handel
Dem (30,000) – 99% Ossoff

EV Totals (140,000):
Handel – 65,300
Ossoff – 74,700
———————

Election Day Turnout (110,000 exp):
Handel (62,700) 57%
Ossoff (47,300) 43%
———————

Election Day Votes:
I think we will see an overall robust turnout for this election. I never really bought into the ‘cannibalization’ theories. When early voting is high, election day voting tends to be high too. I think we’ll see overall turnout to exceed 250,000. I’m guessing high and projecting election day voters will hit 110,000.

All Votes Cast (250,000 exp):
Handel (128,000) 51.2%
Ossoff (122,000) 48.8%


Note:
Cobb county - the GOP's best county - had relatively low EV returns as compared to other counties.

Nov.,2016 Total/ April,2017 Total Vote/ June,2017 Early Vote
Cobb 97,500/ 61,100/ 28,000
Dekalb 72,200/ 44,400/ 32,400
Fulton 156,300/ 86,800/ 80,000

As you can see, Cobb hasn't even reached 50% yet. Apparently, there were only two polling places open, while others had six or more open. If so, that (may) bode well for Handel. The early vote numbers already look descent for her. I’ve been messing around with the numbers, and even in the rosiest scenario for Ossoff (15% GOP crossover support and 70% of ‘no party’), Handel still remains within ~10-15k votes of him.

If so, then she would need to win about 57-60% of the election day vote with a 90-100k turnout. Both of those things seem very doable, especially with Cobb having very little early voters.

And keep in mind, this is Ossoff’s rosiest picture and the race is still a razor-thin tossup. I don’t actually believe he will nab 70% of ‘no party’ voters – He will probably be closer to 60% than 70%. And I doubt he’ll get 15% of GOP support – more likely 10-12%. If so, then Handel only needs to nab about 55% of the election day vote to win.

Of course, that's all assuming that Cobb county had low early vote turnout due to a lack of polling places, rather than a lack of enthusiasm. We’ll find out tomorrow.

[Dr. Arch]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tom Bonier's guide to watching the returns tomorrow night:
https://medium.com/@tombonier/ga06-runoff-viewing-guide-34490167c49d

[krazen1211]

The shooting of Scalise is leading to a Handel surge.

[JJC]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

[Dr. Arch]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

As far as I see it, Cobb has no reason to be more motivated for Handel than they were in the first round when they had more choices. If they didn't come out early for her (a straightforward choice if they were motivated to vote for her), then they might not come out at all--noting that those "banked votes" are proportional to the overall share of the vote that county might comprise in the end.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

[Dr. Arch]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

[JJC]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

As far as I see it, Cobb has no reason to be more motivated for Handel than they were in the first round when they had more choices. If they didn't come out early for her (a straightforward choice if they were motivated to vote for her), then they might not come out at all--noting that those "banked votes" are proportional to the overall share of the vote that county might comprise in the end.

That may be the case. We'll see tomorrow.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

I got one and i'm in GA-11

[JJC]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

Yeah that sounds like typical GOP incompetent campaigning. sigh

[RogueBeaver]

Landmark has an exact tie, but Handel inching up.

[Adam Griffin]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

There's a difference between being right coincidentally and actually being right. If I correctly calculate the odds of a quarter landing on heads three times in a row, then that makes me right. If I correctly guess that the quarter will land on heads three times in a row, then that makes me lucky.

That's why there are so many "pollsters" in each election cycle who get bestowed with the title of "[one of the] most accurate pollsters of the election cycle", and then proceed to being hilariously wrong in future ones (just like they were in the past). In most cases, their methodologies haven't changed; they just lucked out. If a pollster predicts in every election that the results are going to be more GOP/DEM than other pollsters are showing, and the results in one election cycle do in fact end up being more GOP/DEM than most expected, then voila: "most accurate pollster"!

TL;DR: broken clock is right twice a day; Trafalgar is a sh**t pollster

[The Other Castro]

There is no way that EV number in the Trafalgar poll is correct.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The shooting of Scalise is leading to a Handel surge.

Obama please drone