GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[henster]

I could see them pulling it off if they ran exclusively on "slow this chaos down!" Or "let's send a message!" and not as an ideological liberal. That'd be similar to how Scott Brown pulled off his win

Ossoff is just not the right candidate to pull off a upset he a C list recruit at best. Holcomb was the one to to potentially make this a race. If we had Holcomb in GA-6 and Schweitzer running in MT-AL that would show national Ds are serious. So far recruiting shows their saving their energy for 2018.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm hearing that DCCC isn't likely to get involved unless this gets whittled down to one declared Democratic candidate in the very near future. The run-off is a guarantee, but don't expect DCCC support prior to that with multiple Democratic candidates; it'll speak volumes about the organizational efficacy of local and state Democrats in the area to unite behind a candidate or not, and that will affect DCCC's decision. If they can't get involved before the run-off, they likely won't get involved after the fact.


The biggest challenge with this district is "The Discrepancy". It has existed since at least 2008, and likely even before that. These voters are exactly the types who are amenable to a Democratic presidential candidate but do not want local Democratic representatives or even House/Senate types. I've always maintained that for local races, it makes sense: these are exactly the types of people you'd stereotype as being NIMBYs who want a socially-responsible figurehead as President, but "muh low [property] taxes" mean they vote GOP in all other races.

There are dozens of precincts in the district and the adjacent areas where Obama's margin outperformed the aggregate D's by 10-20 points in 2008; some where Obama won by nearly 20 points but the average Republican carried by high single-digits or more. Many of these precincts were among some of the biggest swingers in GA to Romney in 2012. This was also on display in 2016:

Stooksbury got 38% (D was 35% in 2012) and Clinton got 47% (Obama was 37% in 2012). Only about one-third of the Clinton improvement "flowed" down-ballot. I've put that in quotes for a reason. When you look at the demographic shifts in the area, you basically walk away with the understanding that the only thing that flowed downballot was demographic shift; one-third of Clinton's improvement was attributable to demography and two-thirds was attributable to independents and Republicans who crossed party lines to vote for her. Virtually none of the Romney-Clinton voters defected in any other race.

You then have to contend with the fact that this is a special election. That's obviously going to give the Republicans a slight advantage/margin improvement right off the bat in any situation. Can that single disadvantage be reduced or eliminated? Sure - but it just means that it's going to take that much more work to short-circuit the natural dynamic of the race. This is also one of the wealthiest (the wealthiest?) CD in Georgia, which means that turnout for a special will be relatively high. That might sound good, but when you're working as a Democrat against the natural lean of a district, you're probably going to want the baseline turnout in a special to be as low as possible, so that any set number of pro-Dem voters that you do mobilize have a larger impact on the margin.

All in all, I don't see Ossoff being able to do much better than 40-42% - and that's assuming he runs a great campaign.

[Adam Griffin]

I could see them pulling it off if they ran exclusively on "slow this chaos down!" Or "let's send a message!" and not as an ideological liberal. That'd be similar to how Scott Brown pulled off his win

Ossoff is just not the right candidate to pull off a upset he a C list recruit at best. Holcomb was the one to to potentially make this a race. If we had Holcomb in GA-6 and Schweitzer running in MT-AL that would show national Ds are serious. So far recruiting shows their saving their energy for 2018.

Oh, from what I've seen from Ossoff so far, I'm not impressed. He's just running a one-note "I hate Trump" campaign it seems like, and he comes across as an ideologue to me. Dems need a Holcomb or a Gottheimer-like pol for this district. Not some 30 year old filmmaker.

To be fair, Taylor Bennett ran in the 2015 special for HD 80 (Romney got 55% there in '12; district is entirely within GA-6) on a one-note campaign of, effectively, "I oppose these bigoted 'religious freedom' laws", and won 55-45.

[Cynthia]

Likely D, but closer to lean, IMO.

[smoltchanov]

Likely D, but closer to lean, IMO.

Absolutely no way. Likely to lean R depending on candidate. And Ossof is hardly the best possible candidate Democrats could run here - a B-list at best (most likely C-list). This is not a district that worships Civil Rights heroes. It accepted Civil Rights, of course, but mostly votes by wallet...

[Wiz in Wis]

Can he win? Just ask Scott Brown, Bill Owens, Charles Djou, Bill Foster, Don Cazayoux, Travis Childers... etc.

[smoltchanov]

Can he win? Just ask Scott Brown, Bill Owens, Charles Djou, Bill Foster, Don Cazayoux, Travis Childers... etc.

You could add Walt Minnick and many others. Of course - he can. But a probability of this (IMHO) isn't high. About 10-15%

[RINO Tom]

Republicans need to hang on for dear life in this district and others like it, whatever it takes.  Let's recognize the Republican Party again, to post another poster's quoted quote.

[Trapsy]

This is a possible pick up but it will be razor close. it will most likely flip back to R in 2020.

[smoltchanov]

This is a possible pick up but it will be razor close. it will most likely flip back to R in 2020.

Why not in November 2018? It's special after all...

[MAINEiac4434]

This is a possible pick up but it will be razor close. it will most likely flip back to R in 2020.

Why not in November 2018? It's special after all...

If there's a D wave it might stick in 2018.

[Trapsy]

This is a possible pick up but it will be razor close. it will most likely flip back to R in 2020.

Why not in November 2018? It's special after all...

If there's a D wave it might stick in 2018.

my mistake but i agree with your assessment.

[KingSweden]

He can but probably won't

[nolesfan2011]

I have read up on Holcomb's bio Army vet deployed overseas several state and elected rep in the area. The fact he passed up on this race tells all you know about Ossoff's chances.

Dems blew it and like usual they bork their own chances in GA. Ossoff is too young, no one knows him in the district (he doesn't live there), and he doesn't have that much of a reputation to stand on. His ideology is also a bad fit for the district (wealthy moderates).

Shame on Daily Kos for pushing him when he wasn't the best option, also with 5 dems on the ballot he may not even make the runoff. Handel will clear the bases...she fits the district.

[Beet]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

[krazen1211]

No. They will lose again!

[SATW]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

she's an idiot. this would be a good strategy in a district that trump did well in but not in this district. plz someone who isnt sucky run

[Roronoa D. Law]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

she's an idiot. this would be a good strategy in a district that trump did well in but not in this district. plz someone who isnt sucky run

Agreed thought she was done with politics after the Komen scandal.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

Oh for the love of God DNC smell the blood in the water

[henster]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

God she's worse than Hillary, say anything to get elected.

[MAINEiac4434]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

she's an idiot. this would be a good strategy in a district that trump did well in but not in this district. plz someone who isnt sucky run

Jon Ossoff's already declared

[BuckeyeNut]

What happened to Tom's wife, Betty, running? She's a legislator in the Georgia House, currently.

[smoltchanov]

What happened to Tom's wife, Betty, running? She's a legislator in the Georgia House, currently.

She decided to staty as legislator.

[BuckeyeNut]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

[Figueira]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.