GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[smoltchanov]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

Still i don't believe Ossooff has path to victory. A liberal urban Atlanta man, whose main argument is a support  by Civil Rights icon in a district, that adopted to Civil Rights, but most concerned about taxes and own wallet - well, we shall see..

[Figueira]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

Still i don't believe Ossooff has path to victory. A liberal urban Atlanta man, whose main argument is a support  by Civil Rights icon in a district, that adopted to Civil Rights, but most concerned about taxes and own wallet - well, we shall see..

You can support civil rights while still caring about your wallet.

I hope Democrats also invest in that Montana race, though.

[smoltchanov]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

Still i don't believe Ossooff has path to victory. A liberal urban Atlanta man, whose main argument is a support  by Civil Rights icon in a district, that adopted to Civil Rights, but most concerned about taxes and own wallet - well, we shall see..

You can support civil rights while still caring about your wallet.

I hope Democrats also invest in that Montana race, though.

Agree about Montana. And repeat "we shall see" about Georgia..

[publicunofficial]

Honestly if Ossoff or Quist/Curtis even make it close, I'd consider it a moral victory.

[smoltchanov]

Honestly if Ossoff or Quist/Curtis even make it close, I'd consider it a moral victory.

Sure. Both district are "normally Republican". But it's specials, and - with Trump as President...

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Since the Democrats need to win in districts like GA-6 to take back the House, it would not be a good sign if they lost this race by more than a few points, especially with Trump's approval rating being where it is and the fact that the base is motivated right now, like the town halls and protests showed.

[windjammer]

Since the Democrats need to win in districts like GA-6 to take back the House, it would not be a good sign if they lost this race by more than a few points, especially with Trump's approval rating being where it is and the fact that the base is motivated right now, like the town halls and protests showed.

Honestly, it will take time for downballot republicans HRC voters to vote downballot for dems, so honestly if John Ossoff could lose it by less than 10 points, I would be happy.

[smoltchanov]

Since the Democrats need to win in districts like GA-6 to take back the House, it would not be a good sign if they lost this race by more than a few points, especially with Trump's approval rating being where it is and the fact that the base is motivated right now, like the town halls and protests showed.

Honestly, it will take time for downballot republicans HRC voters to vote downballot for dems, so honestly if John Ossoff could lose it by less than 10 points, I would be happy.

It took decades for downballot conservative Democrats in the South to vote republican downballot. Some still vote Democratic for local offices..

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

[windjammer]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Indeed and while it is too early to say for sure, I'll be surprised if the Democrats don't gain a massive amount of ground in the rust belt barring weak candidate recruitment.

[Young Conservative]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Indeed and while it is too early to say for sure, I'll be surprised if the Democrats don't gain a massive amount of ground in the rust belt barring weak candidate recruitment.

It's ridiculous how the left thinks their elitist strategy of attacking Trump voters as evil will amount to gains in states that voted for him....

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Indeed and while it is too early to say for sure, I'll be surprised if the Democrats don't gain a massive amount of ground in the rust belt barring weak candidate recruitment.

It's ridiculous how the left thinks their elitist strategy of attacking Trump voters as evil will amount to gains in states that voted for him....

It's ridiculous how the right thinks their elitist strategy of attacking Obama voters as evil will amount to gains in states for him...

[The Other Castro]

National Dems sending $ to GA-6:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/02/23/daily-202-will-anti-trump-backlash-let-democrats-win-the-georgia-special-election-to-replace-tom-price/58ae458be9b69b1406c75ceb/?utm_term=.d4f3c41ad0d4&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

[Maxwell]

National Dems sending $ to GA-6:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/02/23/daily-202-will-anti-trump-backlash-let-democrats-win-the-georgia-special-election-to-replace-tom-price/58ae458be9b69b1406c75ceb/?utm_term=.d4f3c41ad0d4&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

good news everyone - professor farnsworth voice

[Virginiá]

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

As I understand it, the special election in that hyper-Trump district (32b) has always voted decently Democratic further downballot. In 2012, the Democrat almost won, and this time the dem performance was slightly better than 2014. It wasn't anything special, and if you went by that performance alone, you might conclude that the early tumultuous days of Trump's presidency had pretty much no effect on their voting behavior.

As for GA-6/MT - I think it would be bad for Democrats to lose them simply because they need to be building a House majority with everything they can get in preparation for 2018, but the significance of losing those 2 seems negligible. Trump most likely hasn't been president long enough for a sizable of his supporters to become so disillusioned and upset that they turn on his party. Plus, as smoltchanov was alluding to, it can take a while for presidential voting patterns to bleed downballot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

I don't think Democrats losing both is even that bad, tbh.

[Nyvin]

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

I don't think Democrats losing both is even that bad, tbh.

Definitely not.   Like 538 said, it's an uphill climb.

[OneJ]

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

I don't think Democrats losing both is even that bad, tbh.

I agree.

Looking at the results from both districts in the past 10 years gives me the conclusion that a Democrat losing either one wouldn't be so terrible.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

In 1982, I worked on a special election for a Democratic candidate for NY Assembly on Long Island.  The district was 3 1/2 to 1 Republican, with no bastions of minority voters.  The GOP candidate was a local Republican officeholder who was elected at large from a larger constituency than the one he was running in.  The Democrat was another local officeholder who had lost a general election race for this seat in 1978 (although he ran far ahead of registration).

What happened was that the NY Assembly's Democratic machine flooded the district with workers from NY city to pull out the vote in a low turnout election.  It was mindblowing!  An awesome display of sheer will!  When it was over, the Democrat won the special election by something like 58-42, an amazing result for an open seat against a tough candidate.

The rules have changed, and early voting makes such a blitz less likely to have such a dramatic result.  But special elections are below the radar.  The Democrats CAN win this race if they have the sheer will to win.   

[Cynthia]

Likely D, but closer to lean, IMO.

Absolutely no way. Likely to lean R depending on candidate. And Ossof is hardly the best possible candidate Democrats could run here - a B-list at best (most likely C-list). This is not a district that worships Civil Rights heroes. It accepted Civil Rights, of course, but mostly votes by wallet...

Sorry I meant Likely R. Why in the world doesn't this forum have a notification system..

[smoltchanov]

Likely D, but closer to lean, IMO.

Absolutely no way. Likely to lean R depending on candidate. And Ossof is hardly the best possible candidate Democrats could run here - a B-list at best (most likely C-list). This is not a district that worships Civil Rights heroes. It accepted Civil Rights, of course, but mostly votes by wallet...

Sorry I meant Likely R. Why in the world doesn't this forum have a notification system..

Now i fully agree...

[Gass3268]

DKE has raised 1 million for Ossoff in the month of February:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

GOP ad against Jon Ossoff attacks him for liking Star Wars and being in an a capella group. I'm not kidding. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztJlZ3Ndbw4

He may have a chance here after all.

[NerdyBohemian]

Republicans attack him for acting like a college student while he was in college?