GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[DrScholl]

The trends in the area were fairly strong last year, so strong that the Republican legislature is redrawing a few state house districts, two of which lie within GA-6. That sort of action isn't taken without real concern.

[kyc0705]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

[Dr. Arch]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

Agree to disagree on this one.

[kyc0705]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

Agree to disagree on this one.

Even in this picture?

[Dr. Arch]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

Agree to disagree on this one.

Even in this picture?

Yeah, the facial hair is a turnoff for me, and he's not exactly my type per se either. I can totally see the appeal though.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

LMAO who is dumb enough to use Trafalgar? Also, no way Trump is +10 in a district barely to the right of the national popular vote.

Trafalgar is the GOLD STANDARD from Michigan and Pennsylvania, they also nailed the LA Senate runoff, never forget!!!

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

Agree to disagree on this one.

Even in this picture?

He's cute but he looks vaguely sociopathic in that pic for some reason...

[Anna Komnene]

I got an ad for this race here in NY billing this race as "the first chance to strike a blow to the Trump administration" or something, so they're certainly nationalizing this race.

[Del Tachi]

LMAO who is dumb enough to use Trafalgar? Also, no way Trump is +10 in a district barely to the right of the national popular vote.

Disagree, in my anecdotal observations its seemed like the educated, "Never Trump" Republicans have been the first to come back to him.  I imagine that GA-6 is full of such types. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LMAO who is dumb enough to use Trafalgar? Also, no way Trump is +10 in a district barely to the right of the national popular vote.

Disagree, in my anecdotal observations its seemed like the educated, "Never Trump" Republicans have been the first to come back to him.  I imagine that GA-6 is full of such types. 

That hasn't been my experience at all, but I could see it being different in the South than the Midwest.

[The Other Castro]

Congressional Leadership Fund (R) has ANOTHER negative ad against Ossoff involving Star Wars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wua0okxKvmM&feature=youtu.be

[Chief Justice Keef]

Congressional Leadership Fund (R) has ANOTHER negative ad against Ossoff involving Star Wars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wua0okxKvmM&feature=youtu.be

lol this is so dumb.

[Suburbia]

Here is the thing:

1. If Jon Ossoff wins GA-6, it will be seen as Tossup/Tilt R in 2018 when a more friendlier, Republican electorate may show up in November 2018. Ossoff could lose in 2018.

2. If Donald Trump or Mike Pence screws up by November 2018, and Congressman Ossoff runs on Trump's "incompetence", he could be reelected in 2018.

3. If Ossoff loses in the special election, he could run again in 2018, 2020, 2022.

4. Ossoff will be seen as a potential gubernatorial candidate if Sally Yates or Jason Carter decides not to run for the Democrats in 2018. Kasim Reed wants to go back to the private sector, so Ossoff is seen as a future star for Georgia Democrats.

[Virginiá]

If Ossoff wins now, why exactly would 2018 be worse for him? 2018 would probably end up having a more favorable electorate for him, given the disproportionate numbers of older voters in special elections. Despite everything that has happened, Trump's approvals aren't really as bad as you would think (but still very bad for a new president), so if 2018 turned out to be a bad year for Republicans and Trump's approvals went lower, I would expect Republicans to hurt even more in GA-6 than they would now, and that is on top of Ossoff having the power of incumbency.

[Bacon King]

If Ossoff wins in the special election he'll have no problem winning this district again in 2018. Ossoff's biggest risk in 2018 would be the GAGOP gerrymandering the seat out from under him - such a hypothetical gerrymander probably wouldn't look very pretty but it would do its job by putting Ossoff in an unwinnable position.

You think it'd be insane for the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade just to kick out one guy, but ICYMI they are literally in the middle of redrawing the State House map just because 2 out of the 180 seats have Democratic office-holders even though they were drawn for Republicans. They're so insistent on getting rid of those two Democrats they're literally redrawing the whole map to do it

[Suburbia]

Karen Handel has always been a pretty bad candidate. The only job she had was Georgia's Secretary of State, a elections official. She couldn't beat Nathan Deal in GA-GOV 2010, and she didn't do well in GA-SEN 2014. However, I can see her winning this seat, slightly.

If Sen. Johnny Isakson resigns or dies due to his health problems, the GA GOP primary in 2018, 2020, or 2022 could be between Paul Broun, Handel, and Jack Kingston.

[Bacon King]

If Sen. Johnny Isakson resigns or dies due to his health problems, the GA GOP primary in 2018, 2020, or 2022 could be between Paul Broun, Handel, and Jack Kingston.

I could definitely see all three of them running to replace Deal and/or Isakson but they will be facing stiff competition from the next generation of up-and-coming Georgia Republicans - Casey Cagle, Brian Kemp, Mark Butler, any of the newer Congressmen, etc.

[kyc0705]

Congressional Leadership Fund (R) has ANOTHER negative ad against Ossoff involving Star Wars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wua0okxKvmM&feature=youtu.be

Why wouldn’t I want the captain of the Millennium Falcon making life-or-death decisions?

[Chief Justice Keef]

I think attacking Ossoff for being "immature" in college is ignoring the fact Donald Trump is still a child at age 70.

[Liberal_1776]

Very unlikely. Unless anti-Trump Democrats and others turn out at a much higher rate than Republicans. But this is unlikely, given the coverage towards the election.

[windjammer]

If Ossoff wins in the special election he'll have no problem winning this district again in 2018. Ossoff's biggest risk in 2018 would be the GAGOP gerrymandering the seat out from under him - such a hypothetical gerrymander probably wouldn't look very pretty but it would do its job by putting Ossoff in an unwinnable position.

You think it'd be insane for the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade just to kick out one guy, but ICYMI they are literally in the middle of redrawing the State House map just because 2 out of the 180 seats have Democratic office-holders even though they were drawn for Republicans. They're so insistent on getting rid of those two Democrats they're literally redrawing the whole map to do it

It's going to survive the courts ?

[The Other Castro]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

[Gass3268]

If Ossoff wins in the special election he'll have no problem winning this district again in 2018. Ossoff's biggest risk in 2018 would be the GAGOP gerrymandering the seat out from under him - such a hypothetical gerrymander probably wouldn't look very pretty but it would do its job by putting Ossoff in an unwinnable position.

You think it'd be insane for the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade just to kick out one guy, but ICYMI they are literally in the middle of redrawing the State House map just because 2 out of the 180 seats have Democratic office-holders even though they were drawn for Republicans. They're so insistent on getting rid of those two Democrats they're literally redrawing the whole map to do it

It's going to survive the courts ?

Considering how racial gerrymanders in NC and VA have recently gotten smacked down, doubtful.

[OneJ]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Democratic strategists, time to put that money where y'all mouths are.

[Tintrlvr]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Pretty good result for Ossoff, all told. Clout had such awful crosstabs last time that it's hard to put much stock in their polling, though.