GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Holmes]

First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

Generally yes. But Democrats are strongest on Fridays and weekends, which is usually when early voting begins. I'd wait to see how this weekend looks like.

[Rjjr77]

First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

Generally yes. But Democrats are strongest on Fridays and weekends, which is usually when early voting begins. I'd wait to see how this weekend looks like.

Democrats are stronger ev period, and always on the first day.

[Vosem]

Could we get a comparison to how Early Voting went down here in 2016? This district came out to a 48/47 Trump victory, so its very likely considering the discrepancy between early voting and the Election Day vote in 2016 that the early vote here was a double-digit Clinton victory...but having only 28% of the electorate be Republicans still seems obscenely low in a district like this one.

[Klartext89]

If Nate Cohn is saying it looks bad for the GOP, then I'm absoluetly relaxed. This guy is the most patrisan heck, his credibility is not even close to Zero, it's in negative territory. Hope he's still counting the votes of Hillarys massive lead in North Carolina.

All in all, of course the Dems are starting better, there's more enthusiasm on their side. But it isn't important at which day you're voting, that's what these idiots like Cohn never get...

[Shadows]

First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

Or better yet: Don't read too much into early voting in general. You'd think people would have learned this lesson after 2014 and 2016.

Agreed, They never learn - Always quick to pick straws here & there & jump to conclusions & foretell a Republican collapse - And then they wonder how could they be wrong when Dems lose ?

[Hindsight was 2020]

In news not Ossoff related David Perdue endorses Dan Moody https://mobile.twitter.com/bluestein/status/846663261881847809

[Brittain33]

Or better yet: Don't read too much into early voting in general. You'd think people would have learned this lesson after 2014 and 2016.

[publicunofficial]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

[Rjjr77]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

Because people love being told how to vote by "celebrities"

[Suburbia]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

Ms. Milano is well known and well loved by Americans overall, Gorham is not.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

That not reason for them to give up. They should give up because a R-14 district in off year election in the south is remotely competitive.

[publicunofficial]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

Ms. Milano is well known and well loved by Americans overall, Gorham is not.

Hey man, Harper's Island was pretty entertaining.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

That not reason for them to give up. They should give up because a R-14 district in off year election in the south is remotely competitive.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin. This race should have been viewed as competitive from day 1. They reelected Price big because they thought Clinton would win the presidency and wanted to make sure the house could be a check on her. But they're far less inclined to elect a republican now that Trump is in office.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

That not reason for them to give up. They should give up because a R-14 district in off year election in the south is remotely competitive.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin. This race should have been viewed as competitive from day 1. They reelected Price big because they thought Clinton would win the presidency and wanted to make sure the house could be a check on her. But they're far less inclined to elect a republican now that Trump is in office.

I don't fully agree.  Price would have easily been reelected, but it is different as an open-seat race.  I don't expect someone like Culberson to actually be in danger in 2018.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin.

And Isakson's landslide win? Yes, yes... I know Isakson is not a generic R, but using that logic Quist and Tester would be toast because Clinton lost MT by 20 points. There's more than just the presidential results to consider. Not denying that Ossoff can win, though.

Well it should be fair to point out from those stupid attack ads an just generic advertising that for the seat that Trump's HHS held they have done a horrible job

[GeorgiaModerate]

Although demographic changes are moving the Sixth leftward, there should be no doubt that it's still an R-leaning district.  Don't forget that even Trump, a terrible fit for the district compared to most Republicans, still managed to carry it by a narrow margin.  Any of the other R candidates would have won it by 10.  Under normal circumstances, the chances of a D win in this special election would be practically zero, but the circumstances aren't normal.  With the anti-Trump energy as high as it is, Ossoff has a real chance.  He's far from a lock to win the runoff -- I'm not even sure he'll be the favorite -- but it's a realistic possibility.

[ajc0918]

@Nate_Cohn: "For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32.
Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/846892024146018304

[Hindsight was 2020]

@Nate_Cohn: "For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32.
Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/846892024146018304

Is it too arrogant to guarantee Ossoff is making the run off?

[Nyvin]

@Nate_Cohn: "For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32.
Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/846892024146018304

Is it too arrogant to guarantee Ossoff is making the run off?

I don't see it as possible that Ossoff doesn't make the run off.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin.

And Isakson's landslide win? Yes, yes... I know Isakson is not a generic R, but using that logic Quist and Tester would be toast because Clinton lost MT by 20 points. There's more than just the presidential results to consider. Not denying that Ossoff can win, though.

No, you're "not" using that logic.   Clinton isn't in the White House with a 36% approval rating.

[Holmes]

This is the type of district that Trump would seriously accelerate trends, just like Obama did in Appalachian districts.

[publicunofficial]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

That not reason for them to give up. They should give up because a R-14 district in off year election in the south is remotely competitive.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin. This race should have been viewed as competitive from day 1. They reelected Price big because they thought Clinton would win the presidency and wanted to make sure the house could be a check on her. But they're far less inclined to elect a republican now that Trump is in office.

Price was unopposed in 2016.

[ajc0918]

Which Republican would be the strongest? Handel seems to be leading but she carries the career politician stigma. Gray looks like he is getting support from Trump's base. Not sure about Judson Hill but he seems like an establishment conservative that would probably do well in this district. Any idea about Moody?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Which Republican would be the strongest? Handel seems to be leading but she carries the career politician stigma. Gray looks like he is getting support from Trump's base. Not sure about Judson Hill but he seems like an establishment conservative that would probably do well in this district. Any idea about Moody?

Hill

[Lief 🗽]

David Perdue has endorsed and cut an ad for Moody: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/03/28/david-perdue-on-dan-moody-he-is-one-of-us/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

That not reason for them to give up. They should give up because a R-14 district in off year election in the south is remotely competitive.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin. This race should have been viewed as competitive from day 1. They reelected Price big because they thought Clinton would win the presidency and wanted to make sure the house could be a check on her. But they're far less inclined to elect a republican now that Trump is in office.

Price was unopposed in 2016.

Please check an election's results before talking about them. This is what really happened, per wikipedia:

Georgia's 6th Congressional District election, 2016 [2]
Party     Candidate   Votes   %
Republican     Tom Price (Incumbent)   201,088   61.68
Democratic   Rodney Stooksbury   124,917   38.32
Total votes    326,005   100
Republican hold