GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Maxwell]

"The fear is definitely out there" among some Republican strategists that Ossoff could top 50% on the first ballot.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703

"The fear is definitely out there" among some Republican strategists that Ossoff could top 50% on the first ballot.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703

Ossoff 2024? holy sh**t bro. Reading that just made me grin from ear to ear.

[MAINEiac4434]

"The fear is definitely out there" among some Republican strategists that Ossoff could top 50% on the first ballot.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703

"The fear is definitely out there" among some Republican strategists that Ossoff could top 50% on the first ballot.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703

Ossoff 2024? holy sh**t bro. Reading that just made me grin from ear to ear.

Stop, stop, please...I can't get optimistic about politics again...it's too heartbreaking...

[rob in cal]

   I love the talk about how too many GOP candidates will spread the field too thinly and enable Ossoff to get over 50% in the 1st round  How does this happen, you'd think it would work the other way?  Lots of candidates, lots of campaigning, lots of volunteers knocking on doors etc. should in theory raise overall turnout, thus lowering Ossoffs chance to hit 50, not raise it.

[heatcharger]

   I love the talk about how too many GOP candidates will spread the field too thinly and enable Ossoff to get over 50% in the 1st round  How does this happen, you'd think it would work the other way?  Lots of candidates, lots of campaigning, lots of volunteers knocking on doors etc. should in theory raise overall turnout, thus lowering Ossoffs chance to hit 50, not raise it.

Perhaps some Republican voters may not know who to support in a saturated field, so they may just stay home. Now I think Ossoff is highly unlikely to get 50% in either the primary or the runoff, but it's a plausible theory.

[DrScholl]

When one side is putting most of their energy toward just one candidate and turning out people for just one candidate, that increases the odds of hitting 50% just based on turnout. The district swung heavily Democratic without Georgia even being a targeted state, so there is no telling what the dynamics will look like with an actual turnout operation and campaign. It's all about turnout and enthusiasm.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If I'm reading Michael McDonald the majority of early voting is old white women who are democratic? https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/847628689827274755

[ajc0918]

"Day 4 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 53, R 30
Over all, including absentees, D 55, R 29 with 6442 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/847632669215150086

R vote as a % went down overall since yesterday. D remained steady. Given that the party numbers are based on which primary they have last voted in, do you think the 16% or so who haven't voted in either primary are more R or D?

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Day 4 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 53, R 30
Over all, including absentees, D 55, R 29 with 6442 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/847632669215150086

R vote as a % went down overall since yesterday. D remained steady. Given that the party numbers are based on which primary they have last voted in, do you think the 16% or so who haven't voted in either primary are more R or D?

More D big time

[Roronoa D. Law]

With the I-85 debacle I think it may expose a larger enthusiasm gap. Ossoff has a good chance at reaching 50% if Democrats stay energized and GOP voters are more concerned with new incoming traffic patterns than who their representative is.   

[Doimper]

With the I-85 debacle I think it may expose a larger enthusiasm gap. Ossoff has a good chance at reaching 50% if Democrats stay energized and GOP voters are more concerned with new incoming traffic patterns than who their representative is.   

Would D's not also be affected by the traffic changes, or are their voters concentrated in areas less affected by it?

I was wondering this too. Wouldn't the collapse disproportionately affect Democratic voters living in the Atlanta suburbs?

[Tintrlvr]

With the I-85 debacle I think it may expose a larger enthusiasm gap. Ossoff has a good chance at reaching 50% if Democrats stay energized and GOP voters are more concerned with new incoming traffic patterns than who their representative is.  

Would D's not also be affected by the traffic changes, or are their voters concentrated in areas less affected by it?

I was wondering this too. Wouldn't the collapse disproportionately affect Democratic voters living in the Atlanta suburbs?

The whole district is in the Atlanta suburbs.

I think what he is saying is that it's hard to concentrate on two political issues at once, and Rs, who are less enthusiastic about Congressional elections right now, may devote more mental energy to I-85 while Ds, who are fired up about Congressional elections, keep more of their focus. Seems like a stretch to me, but could have a very marginal effect. Also true that bad things are often blamed on a nebulous establishment, regardless of whose fault they actually are, so could hurt the Rs a tiny amount (but, again, only on the extreme margins).

[Beet]

Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

But Hillary didn't really crush the early Florida vote but also presidential election vs special is apples to oranges

[Hindsight was 2020]

Republican leader in Georgia "the early vote is chilling" https://secure.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ossoff is going to win this thing on the 18th (on my birthday, to make it even worse).  I'm starting to see Republicans starting to point fingers and play the blame game.

[BuckeyeNut]

For the first time, I feel good about this thing. The Georgians I know (liberal Atlantians) were unconvinced this could be flipped.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 5: https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/848008061709168640

Ballots: 8,110

McDonald's numbers (not Cohn's):

• Dem 3591 (44%)
• Unknown 2639 (33%)
• Rep 1880 (23%)

(Was 45% D, 32% U, 23% R yesterday)

[Adam Griffin]

Is that total, or just for Day 5?

Total

[Crumpets]

I'm heartened by the fact that the vote has been both disproportionately old and disproportionately Democratic so far. It implies that there is still a large amount of (presumably Democratic-leaning) young people left to vote and the Dems aren't just cannibalizing their election day vote like they did in November.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Day 5: https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/848008061709168640

Ballots: 8,110

McDonald's numbers (not Cohn's):

• Dem 3591 (44%)
• Unknown 2639 (33%)
• Rep 1880 (23%)

(Was 45% D, 32% U, 23% R yesterday)

The real key from what I'm hearing is that the "unknown" are breaking heavily Ossoff because these are mostly indies/moderate people who are either a) fired up over Trump or b) moderates who want a check on him

[Holmes]

That's a big jump among nonpartisans. Wherever they lean will decide this race.

[Hindsight was 2020]

That's a big jump among nonpartisans. Wherever they lean will decide this race.

That is what I was saying I'm hearing they a breaking Ossoff's way

[JerryArkansas]

How many people do we expect to vote in the primary?  Is getting over 200 thousand too out there?

[Adam Griffin]

That's a big jump among nonpartisans. Wherever they lean will decide this race.

I think you may be comparing Cohn's numbers to McDonald's, which are quite a bit different. The ones I posted are McDonald's; McDonald's numbers yesterday were 45 D/32 U/23 R. For comparison, Cohn's numbers from yesterday were 55 D/16 U/29 R.

[Adam Griffin]

How many people do we expect to vote in the primary?  Is getting over 200 thousand too out there?

Early turnout as a raw number is on par with 2014's early turnout, for what it's worth. There were 210k votes cast in the GA-6 race overall in 2014.

It's the wealthiest CD in GA and one of the wealthiest in the South, so I expect overall turnout for a special election will be much higher than average - even before factoring in just how competitive this race is now apparently becoming.