GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[henster]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

[Ebsy]

RRH is commissioning a poll, so hopefully we get a decent picture soon.

Paul Ryan's PAC apparently has a poll out that has Ossoff with -17 favorables, which I'm gonna go ahead and say is biased.

No really?!?!?!

So Paul Ryan's PAC released a push poll without any actual numbers. Very informative.

[Ebsy]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

Can you just leave the party already?

[Holmes]

I can honestly say that person was not a potential vote for Ossoff either way.

[Crumpets]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

[henster]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

[DrScholl]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

You are assuming that those people would not have name recognition if they were minority leader, which is inaccurate. Regardless of who the minority leader was, Republicans wouldn't like them. Collin Peterson would be considered a communist by these sort of people.

[publicunofficial]

Democrats should just pick the most obscure member of the House and make them leader, and have them serve until their name is less popular than ebola and then start the ritual over again.

[Skill and Chance]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

You are assuming that those people would not have name recognition if they were minority leader, which is inaccurate. Regardless of who the minority leader was, Republicans wouldn't like them. Collin Peterson would be considered a communist by these sort of people.

For whatever reason, there is a good 10-20% of the population that vaguely knows of Pelosi as "the Obamacare (or cap and trade) lady" but doesn't know any of the other congressional leaders from Adam and Eve.  It isn't helpful to deny this anymore and it could conceivably swing a few House seats.  I see a ray of hope that Pelosi will be pressured to retire if Ossoff and others lose their specials after this type of advertising.

[Ebsy]

Very high energy old ladies in GA-06 apparently.

[DrScholl]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

You are assuming that those people would not have name recognition if they were minority leader, which is inaccurate. Regardless of who the minority leader was, Republicans wouldn't like them. Collin Peterson would be considered a communist by these sort of people.

For whatever reason, there is a good 10-20% of the population that vaguely knows of Pelosi as "the Obamacare (or cap and trade) lady" but doesn't know any of the other congressional leaders from Adam and Eve.  It isn't helpful to deny this anymore and it could conceivably swing a few House seats.  I see a ray of hope that Pelosi will be pressured to retire if Ossoff and others lose their specials after this type of advertising.

I think you are missing that point that Republicans are going to create a negative image of whoever the minority leader is and run on that everywhere. Pelosi could die right now and it wouldn't help Ossoff or any other candidate that much.

[Figueira]

Democrats should just pick the most obscure member of the House and make them leader, and have them serve until their name is less popular than ebola and then start the ritual over again.

Sounds like something a puppet of Brenda Lawrence would say.

[JA]

Very high energy old ladies in GA-06 apparently.

I like that old lady!

[Ronnie]

Hmmm...

https://i.imgur.com/icC1G6d.png

That's quite a gender gap.  If Ossoff can fire up the high energy old Georgia women, and the men stay home, then we might actually have a shot!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nate Cohn: day 6: 53 D/29 29 R. Overall 54 D/29 R with 9639 ballots https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/849069004614508544

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm...

https://i.imgur.com/icC1G6d.png

That's quite a gender gap.  If Ossoff can fire up the high energy old Georgia women, and the men stay home, then we might actually have a shot!

Careful, though.  We saw last fall that the early vote was coming in ~56% female in many states.  That didn't hold.

[Crumpets]

Hmmm...

https://i.imgur.com/icC1G6d.png

That's quite a gender gap.  If Ossoff can fire up the high energy old Georgia women, and the men stay home, then we might actually have a shot!

Careful, though.  We saw last fall that the early vote was coming in ~56% female in many states.  That didn't hold.

It did in this district, though. The polling and early results failed to take into account the walloping the Democrats got in rural areas, but they predicted the urban swings pretty accurately.

[Barnes]

I'd like to confirm that the anti-Ossoff ads airing on radio are just as awful as their tv counterparts; although at least my eyes aren't forced to see that Star Wars singing trope on the former!

[RogueBeaver]

SUSA for a local TV station has Ossoff 43, Handel 15, Gray 14. MoveOn has Ossoff at 40.

[Blair]

I mean have the party leaders (Pelosi, Schumer, Trent Lott, Frist, McConnell) ever been popular?

[Maxwell]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

That's not true - and beyond your general dishonesty, Schumer's reputation can turn even more negative very quickly.

[Gass3268]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

That's not true - and beyond your general dishonesty, Schumer's reputation can turn even more negative very quickly.

Today's Q poll had Pelosi with better approvals than Schumer.

[Adam Griffin]

11 Alive/SUSA Poll:

Ossoff 43
Handel 15
Gray 14
Moody 7
All Others 15
Undecided 7

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Better hope that all of those outstanding/likely Ossoff voters are pretty young...

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[Brittain33]

To avoid disappointment, I'm still going to assume for now that Ossoff will finish in the first round with mid 40s and lose the runoff by about 5 points. Hopefully I can be pleasantly surprised.

This. "Fool me twice.... won't get fooled again."