GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Maxwell]

that's a very rough poll for TAKE THE HILL

I'm still excited at the prospect of getting to run against Karen Handel or Bob Gray.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

^^^ Better hope that all of those outstanding/likely Ossoff voters are pretty young...

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That age gap is unusually large.  But, that may explain why Georgia had a much bigger age gap than other states in 2016.  Plus, especially in a district like GA-6, youngs are probably mostly non-white.

[GeorgiaModerate]

^^^ Better hope that all of those outstanding/likely Ossoff voters are pretty young...

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That age gap is unusually large.  But, that may explain why Georgia had a much bigger age gap than other states in 2016.  Plus, especially in a district like GA-6, youngs are probably mostly non-white.

No, whites are a majority in all age groups in the district except 0-4, 20-24, and 25-29.  In those three groups, whites are a large plurarity but not quite a majority.  Source: http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Georgia/District-6/Race-and-Ethnicity (a wonderful site for demographic information, btw.)

ETA: That's non-Hispanic whites.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like Team Trump is sweating...sending out poorly written fundraising emails:

"Fake news and Hollywood liberals," what an empty and ridiculous slogan, lol.

[The Other Castro]

Wait, does that SUSA poll say that 11% of early voters are undecided?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

^^^ Better hope that all of those outstanding/likely Ossoff voters are pretty young...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That age gap is unusually large.  But, that may explain why Georgia had a much bigger age gap than other states in 2016.  Plus, especially in a district like GA-6, youngs are probably mostly non-white.

No, whites are a majority in all age groups in the district except 0-4, 20-24, and 25-29.  In those three groups, whites are a large plurarity but not quite a majority.  Source: http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Georgia/District-6/Race-and-Ethnicity (a wonderful site for demographic information, btw.)

ETA: That's non-Hispanic whites.

Interesting.  So, if 18-34s are roughly 50% non-Hispanic white in this district and the 50% non-white group is voting 90% for Ossoff, the white 18-34 vote would be pretty much split right down the middle between Ossoff and the various Republicans (I'm skeptical of the 71%, but whatever).  Georgia had one of the largest age gaps of any exit-polled states, and a lot of it certainly has to do with racial change, but areas like Atlanta may have a higher than usual age gap right now, even controlling for race.  If Democrats could become competitive with the young white vote statewide (which they aren't right now), they could have a chance to pull out the state.

Now, it may be messy crosstabs or an enthusiasm gap, but it's interesting to try to take a look at this.

[henster]

Does this come up for anyone else when they type Jon Ossoff in Google? It seems weird that would be the top search about him.

http://i.imgur.com/gS4Jkhz.png

[Adam Griffin]

Does this come up for anyone else when they type Jon Ossoff in Google? It seems weird that would be the top search about him.

http://i.imgur.com/gS4Jkhz.png

!!!

Search engine manipulation!

[Barnes]

Does this come up for anyone else when they type Jon Ossoff in Google? It seems weird that would be the top search about him.

http://i.imgur.com/gS4Jkhz.png

!!!

Search engine manipulation!

The dirty tricks will never cease! It's time for the Sixth to fight back against the Pelosi-Hollywood-Fake News-Star Wars-Frat-Gay agenda!

[Beet]

My prediction remains the same. Ossoff looks to be on track for about 45% in the first round, and maybe 47%-48% in the second round if things go well for him.

[Barnes]

My prediction remains the same. Ossoff looks to be on track for about 45% in the first round, and maybe 47%-48% in the second round if things go well for him.

I would say he goes down in the second round about 54-46, basically equal to his share in the first.

Also, Handel's campaign claim she is ahead of the other Republicans by double-digits, ha. She's quickly becoming the Harold Stassen of Georgia.

[publicunofficial]

How I rate the run-off, based on Ossoff's percentage in the primary:

Under 40: Likely R, very worrying sign
40-44: Lean R, good showing but this district is still too Republican to win
44-47: Toss-Up
47-49: Lean D

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm amazed how they don't have anything on Ossoff.

Should they? I can’t imagine he’s had time to accumulate many skeletons in his political closet.

He's a millennial, I expected someone to uncover his Reddit account by now.

[MAINEiac4434]

I mean have the party leaders (Pelosi, Schumer, Trent Lott, Frist, McConnell) ever been popular?

No, because they're easy targets for the opposition. If Tim Ryan won, Fox News would be airing wall-to-wall coverage of how he's a "radical liberal" with "extremist links" and his disapprovals would be equal wit Pelosi in a matter of days.

Pelosi is extremely good at whipping her party (which is why the party has been mostly united in opposition to Trump's agenda). She gets far too much stick in my opinion.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm amazed how they don't have anything on Ossoff.

Should they? I can’t imagine he’s had time to accumulate many skeletons in his political closet.

He's a millennial, I expected someone to uncover his Reddit account by now.

Plot twist: Ossoff is one of our D-GA posters

[Brittain33]

According to Cohn, significantly more Republicans showed up yesterday than in previous days. D46, R37. Sleeping giant may not stay asleep long enough for Ossoff, I worry.

[henster]

What are the odds with all the atttention here we fall short and actually pull off a win in MT-AL?

[henster]

GOP going full Max Cleland in new ad essentially tying Ossof to bin Laden/terrorist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oH-VTBqzgN8

[Hindsight was 2020]

What are the odds with all the atttention here we fall short and actually pull off a win in MT-AL?

Better then most realize. I actually like MT-AL better then this

[Brittain33]

What are the odds with all the atttention here we fall short and actually pull off a win in MT-AL?

Better then most realize. I actually like MT-AL better then this

This. Montana has a much longer history of elasticity than GA-6, which had none at all until last November's presidential election.

[henster]

What are the odds with all the atttention here we fall short and actually pull off a win in MT-AL?

Better then most realize. I actually like MT-AL better then this

Exactly, a lot of these WWC districts are a lot more elastic and friendly to Ds than suburban ones like GA-6. There are a lot of fiscal cons in who are very hostile to Dems in the suburbs and why I don't agree with the shift to high income suburbs strategy.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What wing of the Democratic Party is Ossoff from?  Does he have unusual appeal to a district like GA-6 by being less socialist on economics?

[publicunofficial]

What wing of the Democratic Party is Ossoff from?  Does he have unusual appeal to a district like GA-6 by being less socialist on economics?

His ads have emphasized national security and eliminating government waste. I'm sure he has some views you'd call socialist, same with most young Democrats honestly.

[Pandaguineapig]

Ossoff seems to be on a similar trajectory as Elizabeth Colbert Busch

[Adam Griffin]

AKA why the GOP tries to undermine early voting: