GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Beet]

Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

But Hillary didn't really crush the early Florida vote but also presidential election vs special is apples to oranges

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-early-vote-2016_us_58200106e4b0e80b02cae01c

In North Carolina, 1.3 million Democrats voted early, compared to just 990,000 Republican.

Having been burned by stories / numbers like this, it's hard not to be skeptical.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

But Hillary didn't really crush the early Florida vote but also presidential election vs special is apples to oranges

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-early-vote-2016_us_58200106e4b0e80b02cae01c

In North Carolina, 1.3 million Democrats voted early, compared to just 990,000 Republican.

Having been burned by stories / numbers like this, it's hard not to be skeptical.

clinton won both of those states, so

[Mr.Phips]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

Oh you mean that basically Republican gerrymander that packed all of the state's black voters into three districts and allowed Republicans to pick up all of the surrounding districts by 1995?

[krazen1211]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

Oh you mean that basically Republican gerrymander that packed all of the state's black voters into three districts and allowed Republicans to pick up all of the surrounding districts by 1995?

No, I don't mean that at all. They did not intend that in 1991.

What you describe is (perhaps) failure of intellect, not failure of intent.

[Mr.Phips]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

Oh you mean that basically Republican gerrymander that packed all of the state's black voters into three districts and allowed Republicans to pick up all of the surrounding districts by 1995?

No, I don't mean that at all. They did not intend that in 1991.

What you describe is (perhaps) failure of intellect, not failure of intent.

Or just plain incompetence.  Expecting white Democrats to be able to continually win districts that voted 70 % for Bush in 1988(which all but the three black majority districts did) is beyond stupid.

[Nyvin]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

The map they passed was only used in 92 and 94,  it was struck down by the courts because of packing of African Americans.   It wasn't about taking out Gingrich,  it was made to minimize Black representation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

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High black an youth turnout

[Mr.Phips]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

The map they passed was only used in 92 and 94,  it was struck down by the courts because of packing of African Americans.   It wasn't about taking out Gingrich,  it was made to minimize Black representation.

Maximizing the black percentage in three districts while also taking out Gingrich was the objective.  The 1992 redistricting pretty much split Gingrich's old district (South and West of Atlanta) between two districts (3rd and 7th) with the hope that Gingrich would run in one of the districts and lose to a Dem incumbent (Gingrich came within 900 votes of losing to a unknown Dem in 1990 in his old district that gave Bush 67% in 1988).  Instead, Gingrich moved north of Atlanta two the new and more heavily Republican 6th district and won there.  At the same time, the Dem incumbent in the third district lost reelection to another Republican due to having his black voters removed to create the new 2nd district and having Republican suburban counties just south of Atlanta (that were part of Gingrich's old district) added to his district.

[krazen1211]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

The map they passed was only used in 92 and 94,  it was struck down by the courts because of packing of African Americans.   It wasn't about taking out Gingrich,  it was made to minimize Black representation.

Oh really? That was the reported theory at the time.


Link

Link

The 1991 map was horrible because of the way it was made. After receiving the stringent demands from the DOJ, GA Speaker Tom Murphy's attitude was basically, "I don't care who draws the map or what it looks like, as long as it'll pass preclearance and will give me a Representative who's not Newt Gingrich." The map that eventually passed was put forward by a group of Republicans, IIRC, who designed the VRA districts with such a strong minority presence so that it'd get the support of African American legislators.

[Nyvin]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

The map they passed was only used in 92 and 94,  it was struck down by the courts because of packing of African Americans.   It wasn't about taking out Gingrich,  it was made to minimize Black representation.

Oh really? That was the reported theory at the time.


Link

Link

The 1991 map was horrible because of the way it was made. After receiving the stringent demands from the DOJ, GA Speaker Tom Murphy's attitude was basically, "I don't care who draws the map or what it looks like, as long as it'll pass preclearance and will give me a Representative who's not Newt Gingrich." The map that eventually passed was put forward by a group of Republicans, IIRC, who designed the VRA districts with such a strong minority presence so that it'd get the support of African American legislators.

I'm sure "Going after Gingrich" was the easier thing to say publicly, but that doesn't change the fact that the courts determined later the map was drawn with racial intent, that is they intentionally packed the African Americans.    You don't publicly say that before the map is drawn.

[Skill and Chance]

Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

But Hillary didn't really crush the early Florida vote but also presidential election vs special is apples to oranges

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-early-vote-2016_us_58200106e4b0e80b02cae01c

In North Carolina, 1.3 million Democrats voted early, compared to just 990,000 Republican.

Having been burned by stories / numbers like this, it's hard not to be skeptical.

Always be skeptical of early voting, but this is not the right comparison to make.  GA doesn't have party registration, so the D/R/I numbers being reported here are based on whether you voted in the Democratic or Republican primary or neither last year.  In North Carolina, there are still like 500K registered "Dems" who haven't voted Dem for president since at least Bill Clinton and some since Jimmy Carter.  The "Dems" being reported in GA-06 voluntarily picked a Dem primary ballot last year.

[Ebsy]

Ossoff's campaign had 37 employees.

[rob in cal]

  It would be funny if the the other three Democrat candidates who obviously aren't going to get many votes, somehow deny him the 50% margin, maybe if Ossoff is around 48 or 49%.

[America Needs R'hllor]

  It would be funny if the the other three Democrat candidates who obviously aren't going to get many votes, somehow deny him the 50% margin, maybe if Ossoff is around 48 or 49%.

I'd give it way more chance than him reaching 50%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

  It would be funny if the the other three Democrat candidates who obviously aren't going to get many votes, somehow deny him the 50% margin, maybe if Ossoff is around 48 or 49%.

I'd give it way more chance than him reaching 50%.

My feeling is that he'll get around 46 or 47%.  (Of course, with my track record that means he'll either break 50 or be under 40.)

[Brittain33]

Ossoff getting 50% on 4/18 would be about as shocking as Trump's winning the Presidency last year.

[Ebsy]

RRH says they are releasing their poll of this race Wednesday.

[Gass3268]

Cook has also moved this to Toss Up

[Holmes]

Sweating like a dog

Do they actually talk like this in private? That's some true believing.

[McGovernForPrez]

Sweating like a dog

Do they actually talk like this in private? That's some true believing.

Spooky "Big Labor" as if the labor movement hasn't been lying dead in a ditch since the late 70's.

[Suburbia]

I have GA-6 as Tossup.

[Barnes]

Sweating like a dog

Do they actually talk like this in private? That's some true believing.

Yeah really. What's the point of making this confidential if it could have been easily sent to Paul Ryan on a fundraising email list. "Dear Paul, we need your support..."

[Classic Conservative]

Best GOP day so far:

Republicans: 49%
Democrats: 37%
Independents: 14%

[Suburbia]

Do you see Democrats asking the Obamas, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, the Clintons, or anyone to campaign for Ossoff? Are the Clintons and the Obamas too "politically and personally damaged" to make an visit?

[Pandaguineapig]

Best GOP day so far:

Republicans: 49%
Democrats: 37%
Independents: 14%

Yeah this race is almost certainly going to a runoff, ossoff probably gets 42-44%