GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[publicunofficial]

Because this race has been effectively nationalized. Most voters will be voting based off their feelings on Trump, and turnout will determine the results. The democrats need to find someone who can turn out their voters for off-year stuff, and fast.

Wealthy educated voters are more likely to think their vote out. Less likely to vote straight ticket, more likely to say "Well I hate Trump, but this Ossoff guy might vote to raise my taxes"

[Matty]

UPDATE

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[Hindsight was 2020]

UPDATE

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Christ

[Maxwell]

Who knew that raising 8 million dollars for a congressional campaign would catch the GOP's attention

[Adam Griffin]

This was always bound to happen. It's a 60/40 Republican district. I'd rather they get as much of their vote share counted prior to ED as possible than have a 40-point difference between EV/ED and get our hopes up on Election Night when the early vote totals get counted first.

[Matty]

This was always bound to happen. It's a 60/40 Republican district. I'd rather they get as much of their vote share counted prior to ED as possible than have a 40-point difference between EV/ED and get our hopes up on Election Night when the early vote totals get counted first.

This is probably NOT the case, but I wonder if the gop early voters are voting later simply because they actually had to choose between 4 or 5 options, which may take them a few days to decide who to pull lever for?

[Gass3268]

The early vote in 2016 in this district was R+20. Even if/when the Republicans take the lead tomorrow, on the last day of early vote, they will still be far below the advantage they had last year.

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[Rjjr77]

The early vote in 2016 in this district was R+20. Even if/when the Republicans take the lead tomorrow, on the last day of early vote, they will still be far below the advantage they had last year.

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If trump were running for congress he'd be in trouble...

[Gass3268]

The early vote in 2016 in this district was R+20. Even if/when the Republicans take the lead tomorrow, on the last day of early vote, they will still be far below the advantage they had last year.

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If trump were running for congress he'd be in trouble...

The prior Presidential election is the best indicator of how an open seat will vote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

[Dr. Arch]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

[Matty]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

Arch, just out of pure curiosity, why do you consider yourself an independent and not a democrat?

[Dr. Arch]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

Arch, just out of pure curiosity, why do you consider yourself an independent and not a democrat?

I have my quarrels with the Democratic party's leadership and how the institution operates. While "the left" generally represents my ideological views the best in the mainland U.S., the Democratic party has yet to become a more principled institution--still more or less stuck until the older leadership retires.

I also like to think that, someday, Republicans will come to their senses, and I will have choices again. But that's more wishful thinking to be frank. The above reason is the most important to me. However, if Republicans keep pushing the nationalism mumbo jumbo, I'll formally switch (register) regardless. We'll see.

[rob in cal]

  GOP groups should be aiding Slotin and the other non-Ossoff Dems to help get the non-Ossoff Democrat vote as high as possible.

[Ronnie]

Seriously, why haven't the other Dems dropped out at this point?  Are they trying to sabotage Ossoff?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Seriously, why haven't the other Dems dropped out at this point?  Are they trying to sabotage Ossoff?

Random Perennials don't care about "bowing to establishment wishes". And at this point it's too late to get off the ballot. Getting 1.5% by staying in vs. 0.9% by dropping out probably won't matter on the grand scheme of things.

[jamestroll]

I will faint if Ossoff loses this election!

[Holmes]

Wulfric is right. This is going to a runoff anyway. I think Ossoff is getting between 42-45% in the first round. It's a strong position heading into the runoff.

[Confused Democrat]

I will faint if Ossoff loses this election!

Then get ready to faint!

[Gass3268]

Group allied to Trump launches an attack add on Gray and the Club for Growth

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I always thought this would be the toughest lift due to the type of voters Osoff would've had to win over.  I can only go by my anecdotal experiences in OH, but I know plenty of affluent, educated suburban Republicans who - while they plan to switch from Trump to whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2020 - don't blame any Republicans outside the Trump administration for the current state of the nation.  If turnout is depressed among this crowd, you'll get a Democratic wave, but if they turnout, most of them are not going to vote Democratic.  The affluent, suburban Republicans in Franklin County who reluctantly backed Trump in 2016 (and even many Never Trump ones) are extremely inelastic Republicans and I'm sure this is even more true in places like GA-6. 

This isn't to say we shouldn't target suburban seats, but they won't be enough on their own (it's good to compete in rural, suburban, urban and any other kinds of districts where we can realistically put a seat in play, even if it's just wave insurance).  Depressed Republican turnout in affluent suburbs across America and strong candidate recruitment will be more important than how many Never Trump suburban Republicans we can get to vote Democratic against non-Trump Republicans (hint: it won't be nearly enough without depressed Republican turnout). 

I get why the DCCC is competing in GA-6 and it wasn't a bad call, but I also think they should've been much more careful about managing expectations.  Not too long ago, I even convinced myself Osoff might just miss the runoff, but realistically my gut tells me he's looking at 40-42% on Tuesday.  The only Republican I could see Osoff even having a chance against is Bob Gray, but he'll likely face Handel in the runoff and while neither her nor Hill are particularly good candidates, they're generic and inoffensive enough to the type of Republicans in the district who backed Clinton that Osoff wouldn't stand a chance in the run-off.  Handel's incompetence might keep things close-ish, but I could even see Hill winning by low double-digits.  The other issue, and this is a recurring issue for House Democrats, is recruitment.  Despite the hype, Osoff is neither the strongest candidate we could've run nor is he the right type of candidate to flip a district like this.  That said, I think this district is a bridge too far this cycle (in 4-8 years that will probably change though) and while we should've helped Osoff a bit, building this up as some sort of canary-in-the-coal mine/marquee race was an unforced error.  I maintain (as I always have) that while losing here and/or MT-AL should scare Republicans, it doesn't mean all that much of the Democrats lose both (especially GA-6 which may in hindsight have never been winnable in the first place). 

But of course, mainstream Democrats will play chicken little and then make some weak excuse for why this was a "fluke," Republicans will pretend they have a mandate in the most obnoxious way possible, and Berniecrats will try to pretend this is some sort of damning indictment of Tom Perez (LOL)/"proof" that suburban seats are all fool's gold and we can only win by running fire-breathing liberals in such noted bastions of socialism as KS-4 and WV-3   In case, you can't tell I'm pretty annoyed with the whole situation

[Hindsight was 2020]

I always thought this would be the toughest lift due to the type of voters Osoff would've had to win over.  I can only go by my anecdotal experiences in OH, but I know plenty of affluent, educated suburban Republicans who - while they plan to switch from Trump to whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2020 - don't blame any Republicans outside the Trump administration for the current state of the nation.  If turnout is depressed among this crowd, you'll get a Democratic wave, but if they turnout, most of them are not going to vote Democratic.  The affluent, suburban Republicans in Franklin County who reluctantly backed Trump in 2016 (and even many Never Trump ones) are extremely inelastic Republicans and I'm sure this is even more true in places like GA-6. 

This isn't to say we shouldn't target suburban seats, but they won't be enough on their own (it's good to compete in rural, suburban, urban and any other kinds of districts where we can realistically put a seat in play, even if it's just wave insurance).  Depressed Republican turnout in affluent suburbs across America and strong candidate recruitment will be more important than how many Never Trump suburban Republicans we can get to vote Democratic against non-Trump Republicans (hint: it won't be nearly enough without depressed Republican turnout). 

I get why the DCCC is competing in GA-6 and it wasn't a bad call, but I also think they should've been much more careful about managing expectations.  Not too long ago, I even convinced myself Osoff might just miss the runoff, but realistically my gut tells me he's looking at 40-42% on Tuesday.  The only Republican I could see Osoff even having a chance against is Bob Gray, but he'll likely face Handel in the runoff and while neither her nor Hill are particularly good candidates, they're generic and inoffensive enough to the type of Republicans in the district who backed Clinton that Osoff wouldn't stand a chance in the run-off.  Handel's incompetence might keep things close-ish, but I could even see Hill winning by low double-digits.  The other issue, and this is a recurring issue for House Democrats, is recruitment.  Despite the hype, Osoff is neither the strongest candidate we could've run nor is he the right type of candidate to flip a district like this.  That said, I think this district is a bridge too far this cycle (in 4-8 years that will probably change though) and while we should've helped Osoff a bit, building this up as some sort of canary-in-the-coal mine/marquee race was an unforced error.  I maintain (as I always have) that while losing here and/or MT-AL should scare Republicans, it doesn't mean all that much of the Democrats lose both (especially GA-6 which may in hindsight have never been winnable in the first place). 

But of course, mainstream Democrats will play chicken little and then make some weak excuse for why this was a "fluke," Republicans will pretend they have a mandate in the most obnoxious way possible, and Berniecrats will try to pretend this is some sort of damning indictment of Tom Perez (LOL)/"proof" that suburban seats are all fool's gold and we can only win by running fire-breathing liberals in such noted bastions of socialism as KS-4 and WV-3   In case, you can't tell I'm pretty annoyed with the whole situation

^ That about sums it up if he loses

[Horus]

Decent crowd at Dunwoody library today for the last day of early voting. More diverse than I'd expected, and reasonably young. I still think ossoff loses in the runoff with 49%.

[The Other Castro]

Final Opinion Savvy poll of GA-6:

Ossoff - 42%
Handel - 21%
Hill - 11%
Gray - 11%
Moody - 9%
Others - 3%
Undecided - 3%

"Among early voters Ossoff has a commanding lead at 63%"

Runoffs:

Ossoff - 44%
Handel - 42%
Undecided - 14%

Ossoff - 46%
Gray - 45%
Undecided - 9%

Ossoff - 47%
Hill - 44%
Undecided - 9%

Moody vs. Ossoff:

Moody - 48%
Ossoff - 45%
Undecided - 7%

Trump approval: 54% Approve, 45% Disapprove

http://opinionsavvy.com/2017/04/14/ga6poll414/

[Wiz in Wis]

Ossoff up 2, Handel up 1, compared to last poll. - Those runoff numbers, combined with Ossoff's coffers, make it seem like he has a real shot, even in the event he doesn't get 50% +1 on Tuesday.