GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anything below 45% for all Dems combined should result in the firing of the head of the DCCC.

[Ebsy]

Anything below 45% for all Dems combined should result in the firing of the head of the DCCC.

Can you stop?

[The Other Castro]

Anything below 45% for all Dems combined should result in the firing of the head of the DCCC.

The DCCC can't run Ossoff's campaign for him, and it's not like he needs any more money.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Anything below 45% for all Dems combined should result in the firing of the head of the DCCC.

The DCCC can't run Ossoff's campaign for him, and it's not like he needs any more money.

I mean Lujan does need to go, but this isn't why.

[heatcharger]

I mean Lujan does need to go, but this isn't why.

Why?

[Gass3268]

Samuel L. Jackson cut a radio ad for the DCCC that will play on Urban Radio in the Atlanta Metro

[Virginiá]

Trump approval: 54% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Interesting. Like I suspected, these type of voters are exactly the people who love "New Trump".

Are you sure recent actions actually mean anything in this district? I'm not debating your view of what these voters may like about "new Trump," but rather that an older poll of GA-6 from Opinion Savy shows basically the same approvals:

http://opinionsavvy.com/2017/03/24/poll-ossoff-leads-in-ga6-handel-tops-republicans/

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(Mar 24th)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AJC asked Gray, Hill, Handel, and Ossoff their views on several issues.  Worth a read.

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/leading-georgia-sixth-district-candidates-the-issues/4RC8bLUa5gK4dWgWhCCjFJ/

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump approval: 54% Approve, 45% Disapprove

Interesting. Like I suspected, these type of voters are exactly the people who love "New Trump".

Are you sure recent actions actually mean anything in this district? I'm not debating your view of what these voters may like about "new Trump," but rather that an older poll of GA-6 from Opinion Savy shows basically the same approvals:

http://opinionsavvy.com/2017/03/24/poll-ossoff-leads-in-ga6-handel-tops-republicans/

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(Mar 24th)

Hmm... interesting. Yeah, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I think it's at least fair to say that governing like a generic Republican/Bush 3.0 is not going to him in this particular district. But like Skill and Chance said, I really think this has the potential to backfire on Republicans in the Midwest, the Mountain West and Northeast. GA-06 could very well be too inelastic for the Ds to win, and my wild guess is that the district is full of "RINO Tom-type Republicans" who are still loyal to the party down ballot.

This is one of the many reasons why I don't think a GOP win here would be a good indication of what will happen in 2018.

A ton of those types in Georgia would still be pro-life too, which is conveniently forgotten by the mainstream media (just like it is still not universally accepted that, without the abortion issue, Hillary Clinton would absolutely be the president today).

[Virginiá]

but I think it's at least fair to say that governing like a generic Republican/Bush 3.0 is not going to him in this particular district.

That's a fair point, though my view of his approvals is still that its not entirely about what policies or actions he takes. To a lot of people, they will always factor in the very large amount of awful character attributes and past scandals. You can see such opinions manifest themselves in polls about his trustworthiness, ability to lead, competency, temperament, and so on. In general, he treats people like garbage in so many different ways that it is almost impossible for many people to be objective about his performance as president.

[Bacon King]

Virginia is right - his sudden policy ""pivot"" isn't going to change Trump's approvals in this district. They might like his new direction or some of the new things he's doing but they're still not going to look upon him more favorably

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

[windjammer]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

Likely but I wouldn't say very likely, it's a special election so that is difficult to estimate. Many polls have different results for the 2nd/3rd place.

[Barnes]

New WSB-Landmark Communications poll has Ossoff at 45% other candidates tied in the teens. Just released at 6 pm.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/north-fulton-county/6th-congressional-race-likely-headed-to-a-runoff/512670023

[Barnes]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

Likely but I wouldn't say very likely, it's a special election so that is difficult to estimate. Many polls have different results for the 2nd/3rd place.

Never underestimate Karen Handel's ability to underperform.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

Likely but I wouldn't say very likely, it's a special election so that is difficult to estimate. Many polls have different results for the 2nd/3rd place.

Never underestimate Karen Handel's ability to underperform.

True, but in this crowded field I think her name recognition gets her into the runoff.

[Barnes]

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Apologies, the poll has the race for third tied.

[heatcharger]

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Apologies, the poll has the race for third tied.

Pretty good poll for Ossoff. Even though 50+1 is quite unlikely, 17% for Handel isn't that strong of a 2nd place finish. I really wish the runoff was only a few weeks from now rather than in mid-June, which, in theory, gives Handel plenty of time to consolidate Republicans.

[Maxwell]

wow sounds like the Anti-Handel ads are backfiring.

[Bacon King]

My gut call is still Handel in third, even if polls are showing her up. I don't think name recognition is particularly relevant here - the people who bother voting in a special election are already self-selected to be motivated, engaged, and highly informed voters.

Also with all these polls showing Ossoff polling in the mid-to-upper-fourties in the runoff, I'm pessimistically preparing myself to be completely disappointed - remember that undecided Georgians always break R bigly

[Bacon King]

update: watching tv right now I can confirm THE REPUBLICANS ARE ATTACKING EACH OTHER BIG LEAGUE

First there was an ad attacking Jon Ossoff for being a "tax and spend liberal". But then the message got muddled...

Second was a Dan Moody ad that went very negative against Karen Handel, calling her a "tax and spend liberal"

After that was a Club for Growth ad (who support Bob Gray) attacking both Moody and Handel, calling them "tax and spend liberals"

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!

All the Ossoff ads I've seen or heard have had a very upbeat tone.  None of them have been negative, although that may change in the runoff when he has only one opponent.  It's been kind of refreshing.

[Barnes]

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!

All the Ossoff ads I've seen or heard have had a very upbeat tone.  None of them have been negative, although that may change in the runoff when he has only one opponent.  It's been kind of refreshing.

Did you guys hear that radio add by Handel about the race being a circus? The best part was attacking Moody for shoveling dirt!

[Barnes]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

Yeah, that ad is over the top.  Politifact examined it and rated it "Mostly False": http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/citing-jazeera-payments-ossoff-uses-selective-information/TvaQHx14pnT6Ri4OU8mJ8O/