GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Barnes]

One of the anti-Ossoff radio ads had to be edited by the station (I forget which one) because it falsely accused Ossoff of living in DC. lol.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

[RI]

Yet the early vote is still much older, whiter, and more male than in 2016...

[heatcharger]

Yet the early vote is still much older, whiter, and more male than in 2016...

Also important to note that the most nonwhite part of the district never had a good early voting location.

[Adam Griffin]

Yet the early vote is still much older, whiter, and more male than in 2016...

Also important to note that the most nonwhite part of the district never had a good early voting location.

The southern portion of the district in Dekalb isn't really much whiter in CVAP terms (if at all) than the section of north Fulton that straddles 400. The white share of total population in that part of Fulton is about 10 points higher, but the share of the total population in the southern areas of Dekalb-6 is nearly 30% Latino (around one-third of that in the Fulton part). These two areas have roughly the same total population. Black population share is identical, too.



Still, turnout isn't very strong in either of those areas, despite the north Fulton area having ample access to EV sites. It's higher in Fulton - and yes, that's definitely partly because of EV site access - but nothing to write home about considering it's right in the middle of the greatest cluster of EV sites. I'm not very confident that ground will be made up on Election Day in Dekalb, in large part because of Latino voters.

[Brittain33]

You have to think that every Republican who doesn't come in 2nd will want Ossoff to win the runoff so that they can have a shot at him in 2018 or 2020 rather than wait 20 years for Karen Handel to vacate the seat.

[Maxwell]

You have to think that every Republican who doesn't come in 2nd will want Ossoff to win the runoff so that they can have a shot at him in 2018 or 2020 rather than wait 20 years for Karen Handel to vacate the seat.

Oh Handel will vacate ASAP to run for another office.

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

[MAINEiac4434]

Samuel L. Jackson cut a radio ad for the DCCC that will play on Urban Radio in the Atlanta Metro

Disappointed at the lack of "motherfuckers" in that.

[Mehmentum]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

You must be logged in to read this quote.

40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

[Kamala]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

You must be logged in to read this quote.

40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

Ha no basically rain and snow means less democrats while republicans stay fairly the same

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

44.9% Ossoff (D)
20.3% Handel (R)

Everyone else below 19%.

[Ebsy]

Hasn't weather impacting voter turnout by partisanship been widely discredited?

[Andy Hine]

Samuel L. Jackson cut a radio ad for the DCCC that will play on Urban Radio in the Atlanta Metro

SAY FAKE NEWS AGAIN MOTHERF***ER; SAY IT AGAIN, I DOUBLE  DARE YOU!!!

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

You must be logged in to read this quote.

40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

Ha no basically rain and snow means less democrats while republicans stay fairly the same

You do realize that this is the era of Trump, right? The Democrats all want a win desperately.

Heck, hundreds of thousands braved the chance of bad weather for the women's march in January. Democrats are fired up, regardless of whatever outdated studies you cite happen to say.

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't weather impacting voter turnout by partisanship been widely discredited?

Opposite, it was actually proven. I can't remember the study but id guess 8-10 years ago an academic study (had to be in JOP since thats what I used to read at the time) proved it.

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

You must be logged in to read this quote.

40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

Ha no basically rain and snow means less democrats while republicans stay fairly the same

You do realize that this is the era of Trump, right? The Democrats all want a win desperately.

Heck, hundreds of thousands braved the chance of bad weather for the women's march in January. Democrats are fired up, regardless of whatever outdated studies you cite happen to say.

you can take the anecdotal evidence, I'll take the science.

[Adam Griffin]

I think any "fair-weather" effects will be minimal in this district compared to the average; this CD has the highest median household income of any district in the South* and this is a special election, where enthusiasm for voting is going to be substantially higher than in your standard presidential (or even midterm) election.

*excludes TX and VA; not real Southern states anyway

[Rjjr77]

I think any "fair-weather" effects will be minimal in this district compared to the average; this CD has the highest median household income of any district in the South* and this is a special election, where enthusiasm for voting is going to be substantially higher than in your standard presidential (or even midterm) election.

*excludes TX and VA; not real Southern states anyway

special elections routinely feature lower voter enthusiasm, not higher. Turnout for this election is going to be below any presidential, and below the majority of midterms. Simply because it is out of the routine for average voters and voter fatigue.

I think the biggest misconception on this board is how everyone fails to understand how little the average voter actually cares. Yes i expect to see increased enthusiasm among the democrat base, but I dont expect it to translate into some insane turnout, just as I expect some decreased enthusiasm from the republican base, but not some crippling disappearance from the polls. When we, as political inclined people, get actively interested in smaller races we tend to project our passion on to the average voter.

[Bacon King]

As a resident of the Atlanta metro I just want to point out how hard it would be for anyone in the district to miss this election. I have seen more ads from Ossoff and his Republican opponents in the past month than I saw from every candidate for everything combined throughout 2016. One doesn't exactly have to be highly informed/enthusiastic to know there's an election going on right now

[Rjjr77]

As a resident of the Atlanta metro I just want to point out how hard it would be for anyone in the district to miss this election. I have seen more ads from Ossoff and his Republican opponents in the past month than I saw from every candidate for everything combined throughout 2016. One doesn't exactly have to be highly informed/enthusiastic to know there's an election going on right now

you'd be surprised. and even if everyone knew (they dont) how many care? (so little).

around 42-50% of eligible voters don't vote.

[Adam Griffin]

I think any "fair-weather" effects will be minimal in this district compared to the average; this CD has the highest median household income of any district in the South* and this is a special election, where enthusiasm for voting is going to be substantially higher than in your standard presidential (or even midterm) election.

*excludes TX and VA; not real Southern states anyway

special elections routinely feature lower voter enthusiasm, not higher. Turnout for this election is going to be below any presidential, and below the majority of midterms. Simply because it is out of the routine for average voters and voter fatigue.

I think the biggest misconception on this board is how everyone fails to understand how little the average voter actually cares. Yes i expect to see increased enthusiasm among the democrat base, but I dont expect it to translate into some insane turnout, just as I expect some decreased enthusiasm from the republican base, but not some crippling disappearance from the polls. When we, as political inclined people, get actively interested in smaller races we tend to project our passion on to the average voter.

The enthusiasm among the individuals who comprise likely voters for such an election certainly isn't lower than it would be in most higher-turnout elections, and the aggregate enthusiasm is definitely higher than the aggregate for a higher-turnout election...precisely because you don't have all of these casual voters participating who are only doing so because of the hype surrounding it.

You get tons of people who vote in presidential elections not because they're enthusiastic about it, but because there is a ton of media coverage and campaigning associated with it. The types who are likely to vote in low-turnout specials are always going to be enthusiastic, as they're the base of the base.

I suppose you could argue that this election may be more impacted than your standard special merely because of the amount of money, advertising and campaigning that has went into it (damnit Bacon King, you beat me to it in effect) and therefore turnout might be higher than under normal special election conditions, but I don't believe you can argue that likely special election voters are more likely to be impacted by bad weather than those who show up only once every four years.  

[Rjjr77]

I think any "fair-weather" effects will be minimal in this district compared to the average; this CD has the highest median household income of any district in the South* and this is a special election, where enthusiasm for voting is going to be substantially higher than in your standard presidential (or even midterm) election.

*excludes TX and VA; not real Southern states anyway

special elections routinely feature lower voter enthusiasm, not higher. Turnout for this election is going to be below any presidential, and below the majority of midterms. Simply because it is out of the routine for average voters and voter fatigue.

I think the biggest misconception on this board is how everyone fails to understand how little the average voter actually cares. Yes i expect to see increased enthusiasm among the democrat base, but I dont expect it to translate into some insane turnout, just as I expect some decreased enthusiasm from the republican base, but not some crippling disappearance from the polls. When we, as political inclined people, get actively interested in smaller races we tend to project our passion on to the average voter.

The enthusiasm among the individuals who comprise likely voters for such an election certainly isn't lower than it would be in most higher-turnout elections, and the aggregate enthusiasm is definitely higher than the aggregate for a higher-turnout election...precisely because you don't have all of these casual voters participating who are only doing so because of the hype surrounding it.

You get tons of people who vote in presidential elections not because they're enthusiastic about it, but because there is a ton of media coverage and campaigning associated with it. The types who are likely to vote in low-turnout specials are always going to be enthusiastic, as they're the base of the base.

I suppose you could argue that this election may be more impacted than your standard special merely because of the amount of money, advertising and campaigning that has went into it (damnit Bacon King, you beat me to it in effect) and therefore turnout might be higher than under normal special election conditions, but I don't believe you can argue that likely special election voters are more likely to be impacted by bad weather than those who show up only once every four years.  

wow so you're creating a whole new term here? voter enthusiasm that only counts with enthusiastic voters?

There is no such thing as a "likely special election voter" because special elections have too many variables, are too rare, and the sample size is too small. They will utilize a likely voter model based on how active a voter has been in other races, but you've basically invented a new, non-quantifiable class of voters.

lets throw out all the anecdotal evidence (because it is anecdotal) and look at the facts of voter behavior.

1. Rain affects voter turnout (fact), and rain correlates with higher vote share for republicans (this is also a fact)

2. The around half of eligible voters do not vote (fact)

3. Turnout is lower in special elections than non-special elections (fact).

4. This district has a large republican voter registration advantage (fact).

So based on these we can state, a smaller number of voters are going to vote in this election, this district is mostly republican, so most likely republicans will garner the larger share of votes, and the average and apathetic voter doesn't care.

Looking at the above I would say, yes rain on election day is not good for Ossoff (they will need to keep pace with republican turnout on election day, the majority of people turning out are going to be republicans and they'll need to staunch the bleeding). Ossoff will need to turn out democrat leaning voters who you say are so enthusiastic, but haven't voted yet (bit of a conflict of human behavior?)  To keep pace with the republicans hes clearly going to have to turn out more of the average voter who "hasn't gotten around to voting yet" and "will do it later." Rain is not going to help his cause