GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Barnes]

Adam..

Am I going to faint ?

[Mike Thick]

This is kind of dumb, but whenever I hear about Bob Gray I always think about how in It Pennywise always introduces him herself to his victims as "Mr. Bob Gray."

Same, also FTFY

Agh... I'm rereading the book for the first time in years, but I haven't reached the part where they reveal that quite yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another good AJC article on the race: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/national-implications-push-georgia-special-election-into-spotlight/8FKNlMjuDqU3zyepU5ZJZK/

[heatcharger]

Emerson poll:

Ossoff 43%
Handel 17%
Gray 15%
Moody 9%
Hill 6%

Runoff matchups:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Gray 50%
Ossoff 45%

Hill 48%
Ossoff 45%

Moody 49%
Ossoff 46%

[Gass3268]

Before anyone forgets, Emerson believes in a magical land where cell phones don't exist.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I take that poll with a grain of salt with Ossoff only at 33% in Cobb and doing better in Fulton over Dekalb

[heatcharger]

Thanks for posting this. Ossoff only at 33% in Cobb County, huh?

It's a small sample size, and the poll also has Ossoff doing worse in DeKalb than in Fulton, which seems quite unlikely, but none of these numbers are good news for Ossoff. He needs to run it up in DeKalb and Fulton and stay afloat in Cobb, which doesn't seem to be the case, according to this poll.

Regardless, I don't really know what to expect for tomorrow. Special elections are too unpredictable.

[windjammer]

Hmmmmm interesting

[RI]

I'm slightly worried these polls might be herding, at least among the GOP candidates.

[heatcharger]

Another Clout Research poll:

Ossoff 41%
Gray 17%
Handel 15%
Hill 10%
Moody 9%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I just saw on Facebook that I-20 buckled and had to be closed, at least partially, in DeKalb County.  We will see if they can fix it before tomorrow.

[Tintrlvr]

I just saw on Facebook that I-20 buckled and had to be closed, at least partially, in DeKalb County.  We will see if they can fix it before tomorrow.

I-20 isn't in or particularly close to this district, so it's irrelevant.

[The Other Castro]

Another Clout Research poll:

Ossoff 41%
Gray 17%
Handel 15%
Hill 10%
Moody 9%

That's the first poll I've seen with another R leading Handel in...I think this whole race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another Clout Research poll:

Ossoff 41%
Gray 17%
Handel 15%
Hill 10%
Moody 9%

That's the first poll I've seen with another R leading Handel in...I think this whole race.

Clout's a pretty bad pollster.  538 rates them at C-.

Speaking of 538, they just published an analysis of the race: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/handicapping-the-georgia-6-special-election/

[Progressive]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

[Matty]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

Don't pay attention to early vote data from polls. The sample sizes are too small. 2016 showed how off some of them were.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

There were about 55K early votes.  This number may go a bit higher as some absentee ballots are returned today and tomorrow.  In the last midterm election in the District, there were about 210K total votes.  But that was a regular election rather than a special (so turnout may be lower this time).  OTOH, it wasn't at all competitive (so turnout may be higher this time).  Pick one.

[Matty]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

There were about 55K early votes.  This number may go a bit higher as some absentee ballots are returned today and tomorrow.  In the last midterm election in the District, there were about 210K total votes.  But that was a regular election rather than a special (so turnout may be lower this time).  OTOH, it wasn't at all competitive (so turnout may be higher this time).  Pick one.

Another reason to think turnout will be higher than what you'd expect is that the district is educated and fairly white. Education correlates highly with midterm voting, as does being older and whiter. Now, that may be different in the age of trump, but I think it's safe to say turnout will be healthy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

There were about 55K early votes.  This number may go a bit higher as some absentee ballots are returned today and tomorrow.  In the last midterm election in the District, there were about 210K total votes.  But that was a regular election rather than a special (so turnout may be lower this time).  OTOH, it wasn't at all competitive (so turnout may be higher this time).  Pick one.

Another reason to think turnout will be higher than what you'd expect is that the district is educated and fairly white. Education correlates highly with midterm voting, as does being older and whiter. Now, that may be different in the age of trump, but I think it's safe to say turnout will be healthy.

More on the GA-6 registered voter population and how it's changed since the November election: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/despite-attention-georgia-6th-district-doesn-have-many-new-voters/H3pyVCmVAW6nJ3jMPAVyCJ/

[Ronnie]

Trump takes shots at Ossoff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/853964023846588420

[The Other Castro]

Trump takes shots at Ossoff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/853964023846588420

This is only going to backfire against him.

[SoLongAtlas]

Trump takes shots at Ossoff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/853964023846588420

This is only going to backfire against him.

Not to mention he forgot to correct it and add in the "n" to Congressional. Ha. Not in favor of Osseff but the president should stay out of special elections or just issue a generic response. Trump does whatever comes in mind.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly I'll take Trump's tweets over Obama's attitude of never caring about house races ever.

[Progressive]

Just to be clear, Ossoff would need 50% + 1 vote to win tomorrow right?

So if 50,000 people voted, he'd need 25,001 votes to win outright, correcT?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just to be clear, Ossoff would need 50% + 1 vote to win tomorrow right?

So if 50,000 people voted, he'd need 25,001 votes to win outright, correcT?

That is correct.