GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

  I find it amazing that long lines could develop in that the congressional election is the only thing on the ballot, correct?  If that's right it shouldn't take long for people to get in and vote and be done, not like those California style ballot marathons that we enjoy so much.

There are also some local elections in parts of the district, some of which are getting a lot of local attention.

[rob in cal]

  Oh, that's interesting, in that it might drive up turnout in those areas, but not areas without local races.

[Progressive]

As a Democrat and a Mets fan I am used to heart break. All I can think about tonight is a continued tale of woe. Hope the streak breaks because this year has been very sad to watch.

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. Tonight will be a win for Ossof if he gets 47 or above.

I agree but there are two groups I am concerned about.

1. Trump and Trump supporters who will think that a runoff validates the incredible amount of incompetence and "bad presidenting" coming from the White House

2. Disenchanted Dems who will see not an outright win and think "Forget it, the DNC is done, I'm going back to not voting."

[Matty]

Democrats will be just as fired up in the run off it it goes to that.

[Holmes]

  I find it amazing that long lines could develop in that the congressional election is the only thing on the ballot, correct?  If that's right it shouldn't take long for people to get in and vote and be done, not like those California style ballot marathons that we enjoy so much.

There's probably less staff working the polls than a normal election.

[Tintrlvr]

I was under the impression that Sandy Springs was a Republican-leaning city considering it's history. Is it more a swing city now?

I believe it is now more of a swing city, but in any case they were referring to a specific precinct in Sandy Springs that is strongly Democratic rather than the city as a whole.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/04/18/live-updates-georgias-6th-district-special-election/  (6:15 update)

[Matty]

One of the issues without turnout in a jungle is that it may or may not be enough to get over the 50 mark.

If this was the runoff, it would be a concern re the sandy precincts. The question is whether the turnout disparities can improve ossof's margin by 6-7 points.

[Tintrlvr]

One of the issues without turnout in a jungle is that it may or may not be enough to get over the 50 mark.

If this was the runoff, it would be a concern re the sandy precincts. The question is whether the turnout disparities can improve ossof's margin by 6-7 points.

And also whether potentially lower information Democratic voters who wouldn't ordinarily vote in midterms/specials are aware enough to vote for Ossoff and not one of the other Democrats on the ballot.

[Devout Centrist]

Calm down everyone, if Ossoff somehow won tonight, it would be monumental. But I'm still highly skeptical that will happen.

[Progressive]

From the Atlanta Journal Constitution live blog

Updated at 6:15 p.m. Reading the tea leaves

Political analysts are getting wound up about a pair of Sandy Springs districts that could signal a stronger-than-expected Democratic turnout.

The first is a precinct that Democrat Michelle Nunn won with 78 percent of the vote in 2014, meaning that it’s a trove of potential votes for Democrat Jon Ossoff. Turnout in that precinct has nearly doubled on Tuesday, an astounding fete for a special election.

The second is a precinct in a more conservative stretch of Sandy Springs where Nunn only got about a third of the votes. Turnout there is only about half of what it was in 2014.

“That ain’t good,” texted one GOP operative.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the issues without turnout in a jungle is that it may or may not be enough to get over the 50 mark.

If this was the runoff, it would be a concern re the sandy precincts. The question is whether the turnout disparities can improve ossof's margin by 6-7 points.

That depends on whether the turnout level in these two precincts is representative of other precincts that look similar to them.  If it is (and that's a big if) then the Democrats could be in for a big night.

[Matty]

Yep, but we are getting "reports" (hate that word especially when it comes from twitter) that turnout is high in both red and blue areas.

Who knows.

[The Other Castro]

Manu Raju @mkraju
Both sides think Ossoff will fall SHORT of 50% but GOP fears fallout from apathetic base. Our piece via @CNNSitRoom

[Ebsy]

Yep, but we are getting "reports" (hate that word especially when it comes from twitter) that turnout is high in both red and blue areas.

Who knows.

Which reports indicated high turnout in GOP precincts?

[Matty]

Yep, but we are getting "reports" (hate that word especially when it comes from twitter) that turnout is high in both red and blue areas.

Who knows.

Which reports indicated high turnout in GOP precincts?

random twitter reports about places out in cobb.

Like I said, we will see. But if history is our guide, twitter reports should not be taken too seriously. On either side.

The only time in elections that twitter reports are legit are inside caucus rooms where people take pics of the vote count.

[Progressive]

Anyone with some links to good results pages tonight?

[The Other Castro]

FWIW these are tweets from actual reporters, so calling them reports is accurate.

[Confused Democrat]

Useful spreadsheet for those who want to keep track of the vote.

It'll be updated as the votes come in.

[Dr. Arch]

Is the DD link out yet?

[Matty]

Anyone with some links to good results pages tonight?

Honestly, updating this thread is probably a top notch source for vote updates

[publicunofficial]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

[Matty]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

two months is a bizarre time period, imo.

Why can't a runoff only be mere days/week after the jungle?

[Progressive]

Anyone with some links to good results pages tonight?

Honestly, updating this thread is probably a top notch source for vote updates

True. I usually do that anyway but really like to see the raw data.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

two months is a bizarre time period, imo.

Why can't a runoff only be mere days/week after the jungle?

Georgia (I don't know about other states) is required to allow plenty of time for overseas military ballots to be received.