GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[wjx987]

Ossoff got 71% of EV in Dekalb vs. 57% for Clinton

71% of EV in DeKalb is pretty much exactly the benchmark he needs for 50% districtwide.

pretty good start but I'm getting KS-04 deja vu and I'm afraid of early vote so I'm playing it cool

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    71.3%   6,761
Karen Handel (Republican)    10.8%   1,023
Dan Moody (Republican)    9.1%   864
Bob Gray (Republican)    3.7%   353
Judson Hill (Republican)    2.5%   240
Ron Slotin (Democratic)    0.6%   53
David Abroms (Republican)    0.5%   51
Kurt Wilson (Republican)    0.3%   25
Bruce Levell (Republican)    0.2%   22
Keith Grawert (Republican)    0.2%   19
Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan (Republican)    0.2%   18
Ragin Edwards (Democratic)    0.2%   18
Richard Keatley (Democratic)    0.1%   11
Rebecca Quigg (Democratic)    0.1%   7
William Llop (Republican)    0.1%   6
Alexander Hernandez (Unaffiliated)    0.1%   6
Amy Kremer (Republican)    0.1%   5
Andre Pollard (Unaffiliated)    0.0%   1
Write In (Unaffiliated)    0.0%   0

[Brittain33]

This is just early voting folks, don't get too excited.

Yes, that 57% for Clinton wasn't EV but overall vote...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

First results coming in now.

link??

DDHQ says they are about to post them.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/georgia-6th-congressional-district-ga06-special-election-primary/

Do they have a live podcast or something you're listening to?

Also--anyone getting weird Adware looking things on DDHQ?

That site was blocked for me.

[GlobeSoc]

Ossoff got 71% of EV in Dekalb vs. 57% for Clinton

71% of EV in DeKalb is pretty much exactly the benchmark he needs for 50% districtwide.

pretty good start but I'm getting KS-04 deja vu and I'm afraid of early vote so I'm playing it cool

[JerryArkansas]

Looks like he swept the precincts in the early vote in DeKalb

[Brittain33]

Also, everyone remember that EV in DeKalb was hamstrung by lack of voting locations.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

make it rain

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Keep in mind this is entirely early vote

[The Other Castro]

Here's the DeKalb County EV page:

https://www.dekalbcountyga.gov/sites/default/files/GEMS%20ELECTION%20SUMMARY%20-DIST6%20-%20740p.pdf

[TheSaint250]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

[Libertarian in Name Only]

Is there a link to precinct results so we can compare that to the 538 spreadsheet?

[Ronnie]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

Pretty sensible prediction, imo.

[McGovernForPrez]

DeKalb is also the one part of the district where Dems can squeeze higher turnout numbers in ED voting since there weren't many early voting locations there. Very good news so far.

[TheSaint250]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

Pretty sensible prediction, imo.

Thanks

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What would you say Ossoff needs tonight for 50/50 odds in the runoff?

[GlobeSoc]

DeKalb is also the one part of the district where Dems can squeeze higher turnout numbers in ED voting since there weren't many early voting locations there. Very good news so far.

True but I'm still nervous.

[ajc0918]

Numbers from DeKalb are just in person absentee, not mail in absentee

[TheSaint250]

What would you say Ossoff needs tonight for 50/50 odds in the runoff?

48%-49% of the vote

[Donerail]

What would you say Ossoff needs tonight for 50/50 odds in the runoff?

I'm skeptical on any runoff (as it'll allow Rs to consolidate and focus their message), so I'll say 47%.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ossoff in good position if he can hold all of DeKalb precincts. Keep an eye on Dunwoody precincts most were marginal Trump wins.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What would you say Ossoff needs tonight for 50/50 odds in the runoff?

I'm skeptical on any runoff (as it'll allow Rs to consolidate and focus their message), so I'll say 47%.

Well, I guess you could say that for him to have at least 50% odds at winning he has to hit 50% tonight and win without a runoff.

[henster]

Expecting to get screwed by election day votes again.

[The Other Castro]

Obviously these are extremely early results and shouldn't be extrapolated too much, but if the rest of the voting is like this, this could be a veryyyyyyyyyy long night.

[KingSweden]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

Pretty sensible prediction, imo.

Word