GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[LimoLiberal]

Anybody know where the Dekalb precincts are that are in? Makes big difference in terms of ossoff hitting his benchmark #s.

[Kamala]

About 20% of E-Day precincts in. Ossoff at 57%, but most of friendly DeKalb in. Fulton still just earlies #GA06

Friendly for who?

ossoff friendly.

Just generally nice people.

[Figueira]

Where is this spreadsheet?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ossoff down to 55.6% now.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It looks like GOP enthusiasm for Trump (or against Democrats) is as strong as ever.  I think it would be a mistake to assume it'll be any weaker in the midterms.

this is highly misleading, since there was no pro-trump enthusiasm in this district to start with, otherwise this seat wouldn't be interesting at all.

more correctly: there would be still just enough nose-holders to save a seat narrowly.

[DrScholl]

Let's not call the race yet, people. Ossoff is still performing quite well, so let's at least wait for more votes to report before declaring that flop Karen Handel the next Representative.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We are getting slammed in Cobb.

[Lothal1]

Down to 55%. Is it happening?

[The Other Castro]

Some Cobb came in, Ossoff now 47% there.

[Brittain33]

(R)CP

sure but....trende was still one of the best, maybe THE best in 2016.

following him informs one pretty good without much BS.

Do you think his extrapolation here to Ossoff dropping to 40 is a reasoned analysis?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I called Ossoff vs Handel so Im not disappointed people really downplay the runoff  

[TheSaint250]

23% of precincts reporting:

Ossoff: 55.6%
Handel: 16.4%
Moody: 8.5%
Gray: 8.3%
Hill: 7.8%

[Jeppe]

Ossoff is holding up okay in Cobb, still at 47%.

[LimoLiberal]

37% of Cobb in.... Ossoff at 47.3. He needs to be around 44. Very close.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm under the impression the parts of Cobb coming in are some of the most conservative?

[TheSaint250]

Down to 55%. Is it happening?

It seems pretty well-accepted that a runoff is almost unavoidable.  It's just by how much Ossoff loses is the question...

[ApatheticAustrian]

(R)CP

sure but....trende was still one of the best, maybe THE best in 2016.

following him informs one pretty good without much BS.

Do you think his extrapolation here to Ossoff dropping to 40 is a reasoned analysis?

ofc not, this was just trolling the "super early vite expectation extrapolate audience" as his next tweet suggest, i just bungled including it at first.

[ajc0918]

#GA06 67% DeKalb in, Ossoff +2 over HRC, 37% Cobb in, Ossoff +7 over HRC. NO Elec Day vote from Fulton in. Looks like upper 40s for Ossoff.

[Lothal1]

Thee precinct map is starting to show it too.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Down to 53.9% now

[JerryArkansas]

Down to 55%. Is it happening?

It seems pretty well-accepted that a runoff is almost unavoidable.  It's just by how much Ossoff loses is the question...

So assuming someone is going to win is what your going to go with.  Yeah that always works out for people.

[The Other Castro]

NYT estimates are that:

Cobb = 37% in (Ossoff benchmark is 43%, currently at 47.3%)
Fulton = 1% in (Ossoff benchmark is 49%, currently at 61% but just early vote)
DeKalb = 67% in (Ossoff benchmark is 61%, currenly at 58.5%)

[Adam Griffin]

The new SoS interface is sucking at showing me county-by-county or precinct-by-precinct totals. How much vote from Fulton is actually in?

[Hindsight was 2020]

In very typical fashion people are getting way to invested here earlier today someone on this thread would have told you upper 40's against Handel was a good position for Ossoff but now libs are doom and gloom an reps are declaring Handel rep

[ApatheticAustrian]

why the hell is the game-breaking monster district taking so long?

we first got a pro-dem bias, now we get punched by a pro-rep bias but what is the middle thinking?