GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[ajc0918]

Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

Handel is disliked by the Bob Gray crowd, his entire campaign was attacking her. I could see some of them staying home as well as some of Judson Hill's crew.

[Brittain33]

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

as we know, actors are totally influencing races, only taking the backseat to newspaper endorsements.

A district once represented by Newt Gingrich is notoriously seduced by glamour and good looks

Isakson is quite a looker as well.

Once you go Price, you'll never think twice

[Brittain33]

Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

Handel is disliked by the Bob Gray crowd, his entire campaign was attacking her. I could see some of them staying home as well as some of Judson Hill's crew.

I have to imagine that any Republican with ambition would rather be running against Ossoff in 2018 or 2020 rather than see Handel win.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just mentioning, this is the third seat which moved like...+15-20 dem since the election.

this pattern isn't healthy for republicans.

[Xing]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

[Hammy]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

If Ossoff comes in under 50%, more than likely (given how small the other D candidates are getting) the GOP will have exceeded 50% when all added up--and the Democrats don't seem to like showing up to the polls for runoff elections.

[DrScholl]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Factoring in voters dying is not exactly an optimistic strategy.

[Brittain33]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

[SCNCmod]

Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

Handel is disliked by the Bob Gray crowd, his entire campaign was attacking her. I could see some of them staying home as well as some of Judson Hill's crew.

I have to imagine that any Republican with ambition would rather be running against Ossoff in 2018 or 2020 rather than see Handel win.

Actually a good point, esp considering a runoff is likely to be very close

[Brittain33]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

If Ossoff comes in under 50%, more than likely (given how small the other D candidates are getting) the GOP will have exceeded 50% when all added up--and the Democrats don't seem to like showing up to the polls for runoff elections.

Don't you think the rules about Dem enthusiasm aren't applying as usual in 2016? Also, there are independent candidates in the mix (albeit at tiny numbers.)

[Umengus]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

[Roronoa D. Law]

just mentioning, this is the third seat which moved like...+15-20 dem since the election.

this pattern isn't healthy for republicans.

GA-07 is always with 5% of GA-06 too.

[Brittain33]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What is left in Fulton?

[Ronnie]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

Yeah, but we also can't assume that every single Republican who voted this time will vote for Handel in the runoff.  The vast, vast majority will, but one or two percent could make the difference.

[publicunofficial]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

If Ossoff comes in under 50%, more than likely (given how small the other D candidates are getting) the GOP will have exceeded 50% when all added up--and the Democrats don't seem to like showing up to the polls for runoff elections.

Common logic says Dems don't like showing up for special elections either, and so far that's not the case.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What is left in Fulton?

84%, so like...everything.

[ajc0918]

@DKElections Former head of Trump's national diversity coalition Bruce LeVell at 0% right now. Long titles don't aways indicate importance #GA06

[Nyvin]

What is left in Fulton?

97 out of 116 precincts.

[Maxwell]

I thought Ossoff had already been destroyed by the GOP machine That's why I guessed 45% of the vote but anticipated like 41 or 42%.

Let's check how the polls did (I'm assuming Ossoff ends up at 48%)

Emerson had Ossoff at 43% (+5)
Landmark had Ossoff at 45% (+3)
Fox 5 had Ossoff at 42% (+6)
Zpolitics had Ossoff at 41% (+7)

strong over-performance (or him being under-polled). Performance is less consistent for Republican candidates - Handel under-performed in some polls (Fox 5) and over-performed in others (ZPolitics) while being largely correct in a few others. Gray was largely over-polled, Hill under, and Moody's numbers look just about right.

[SCNCmod]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

He will be running as the under-dog in a runoff... nothing to lose... this is often when younger, newer candidates surprise people and surpass expectations

[Umengus]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

because republicans were infighting

[Brittain33]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

Yeah, but we also can't assume that every single Republican who voted this time will vote for Handel in the runoff.  The vast, vast majority will, but one or two percent could make the difference.

My bad, I misread your post as talking about tonight. I agree, I actually think he's in quite good shape for the runoff—better than 50% chance of winning.

[Fusionmunster]

Democrats are probably going to win back congress at this rate.

[Maxwell]

Ossoff also hasn't spent a dime attacking any of the Republicans, while the Republicans have already spent quite a bit attacking Ossoff.